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The Coventry Economy Key Information

The Coventry Economy Key Information. Corporate Research February 2013. www.facts-about-coventry.com. Contents. Context Demographics Updated (December 2012) Deprivation in Coventry Current economic picture in Coventry

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The Coventry Economy Key Information

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  1. The Coventry EconomyKey Information Corporate Research February 2013 www.facts-about-coventry.com

  2. Contents Context • DemographicsUpdated (December 2012) • Deprivation in Coventry Current economic picture in Coventry • Production and growth – Gross Value Added Updated (December 2012) error corrected ProductivityUpdated (January 2013) • Disposable Household Income • Earnings of people in workUpdated (January 2013) • Structure of the Coventry economyUpdated (December 2012) • Number of businesses Updated (December 2012) error corrected • Enterprise – new business formation Updated (December 2012) • Coventry City Centre – footfall & void unitsUpdated (January 2013) • Labour Market error corrected – Employment, JobseekersUpdated (February 2013), out-of-work benefits Updated (February 2013), and Job VacanciesUpdated (January 2013) • Skills • Public sector job losses - BBC research Click on an item to go directly to that content, alternatively scroll through the slides All data is current and up to date as of the end of February 2013

  3. The next update of this information is due in July 2013 Black and Minority Ethnic includes all ethnic groups except White British *General Fertility Rate = number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 **The ethnic group categories have changed marginally for 2011 Census. In particular ‘Chinese’ is now categorised under ‘Asian / Asian British’ – previously it was in the ‘Other’ category. ▼ indicates Coventry rate lower than comparator ▲ indicates Coventry rate higher than comparator ● indicates Coventry rate no different to comparator Back to Contents page

  4. The next update of this information is due in 2013/2014 Deprivation in Coventry • Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010. This uses data from 2008 so measures deprivation just before the recession hit • Coventry became slightly more deprived between 2005 and 2008 relative to other local authorities • 50th most deprived local authority (56th in 2005) • Income and employment deprivation most stark in Coventry, no change in this type of deprivation • Deprivation pattern within Coventry is broadly the same. Familiar picture, concentrated in the North East • Canley in particular became relatively more deprived, as did Tile Hill North and Radford Stoke Aldermoor and North Holbrooks became less deprived, as did NDC area, modestly See map on Facts about Coventry See report on Facts about Coventry Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010, Department for Communities and Local Government Back to Contents page

  5. Gross Value Added • Gross Value Added (GVA) is a high level indicator of the general heath of the local economy. It measures the amount Coventry workplaces contribute to the UK economy • Total GVA in Coventry for 2011 was estimated to be £5.84bn, slightly up from £5.78bn in 2010 and £5.62bn in 2009. This increase was assisted by population growth • GVA per head is a measure that puts total output of an area in context according to its size. GVA per head in Coventry in 2011 was £18,281, 14% lower than the national average • GVA per head in Coventry was static between 2010 and 2011 after seeing a £300 increase between 2009 and 2010. • As was the case across the country, GVA per head fell between 2008 and 2009 • In 1997 GVA per head was higher than the national average but has grown since then by only 31% compared to 66% nationally • GVA per head is higher in Coventry than in areas considered appropriate to compare with (CIPFA statistical neighbours), see the charts below Source: Office for National Statistics Back to Contents page

  6. An error in the December 2012 edition has been corrected here. The average for Coventry Comparator Areas was underestimated for 1997 – 2011 The next update of this information is due December 2013 Gross Value Added per head Source: Gross Value Added (Income Based) by sub region, ONS December 2012 Back to Contents page

  7. An error in the December 2012 edition has been corrected here. The average for Coventry Comparator Areas was underestimated for 2011 The next update of this information is due December 2013 Gross Value Added per head Blue = Coventry CIPFA comparator areas (best fit) Source: Gross Value Added (Income Based) by sub region, ONS December 2012 Back to Contents page

  8. Productivity • GVA per head puts the output of an area in context given its population size. However, it is not considered to be the best measure of the productivity of its businesses because it doesn't account for differing patters of commuting, differing working age populations and differing employment and unemployment rates between different areas • Productivity at workplaces in a particular area is most accurately estimated using one of two different indicators; Gross Value Added per filled job and Gross Value Added per hour worked • The data gives an indication that productivity at workplaces in Coventry was slightly lower than the UK average in 2004 and has been falling further behind the UK since 2004, up to 2009. In 2009 GVA per hour worked in Coventry was 9% lower than the UK average • In 2004 productivity at Coventry workplaces was, on average, higher than in Birmingham and Warwickshire but fell to be lower than those areas in 2009 • The industrial structure of Coventry's economy changed between 2004 and 2009, this may have contributed to the pattern of falling productivity relative to the UK Back to Contents page

  9. Productivity Back to Contents page

  10. Disposable Household Income • Disposable income is the amount of money a household has available to spend or save after income is redistributed through measures such as taxes and benefits • The 2010 Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) per head for Coventry was £12,447, below that of Warwickshire (£16,628), the UK average (£15,727) and the average for all metropolitan areas (£13,317) • GDHI per head in Coventry has grown slower than that of both Warwickshire and UK, having seen a 24% increase between 2001 and 2010 compared to 31% and 33% respectively • Real household disposable income is gross disposable income adjusted for the effects of inflation • In 2010 Coventry individual residents have the same real household disposable income as in 2005, although they were worse off between 2006 and 2008 • Although individual residents have seen falls in RHDI levels, the city as a whole has seen an increase in total real disposable household income, helped by population increase Back to Contents page

  11. The next update of this information is due May - June 2013 Gross Disposable Household Income Source: Regional Gross Disposable Household Income 2010, Office for National Statistics Back to Contents page

  12. The next update of this information is due May - June 2013 Real Disposable Household Income Source: Regional Gross Disposable Household Income 2010 , Office for National Statistics Back to Contents page

  13. Earnings of people in work • The average (median) annual wage in 2012 (before tax) of all people who work in Coventry is estimated to be £22,655; higher than the average for all Coventry residents, £21,300 • Those who work in Coventry, on average, earn 4% more than the England average of £21,794 • People who work in Coventry earn on average 6% more than Coventry residents; many people commute into Coventry to work • Starting from a lower base, the average annual growth in earnings between 2008 and 2012 for residents of Coventry (1.8%) has been higher than the average growth amongst those who work in Coventry (1.0%) and compared to the England average (0.7%) • Earnings growth in Coventry in 2011 was generally higher than the previous 2 years. In 2012 there was flat growth amongst Coventry residents and a small reduction in average earnings amongst those who work in Coventry Back to Contents page

  14. The next update of this information is due: 18th December 2013 Earnings of people in work Back to Contents page

  15. Employment by industry • The largest broad sector of the Coventry economy is public administration, education and health which employs approximately 45,700 people in Coventry, about a third (33%) of all employment • Manufacturing has become an increasingly smaller part of the economy in recent years and in 2011 made up about 10% of employment, about 14,250 people • ‘Business services’ (banking, finance and insurance) has employed an increasing number of people in the city since 1998, increasing from 14% to 23% of all employment in 2008 (England 23%). Between 2008 and 2011 the number of people working in this sector in Coventry has fallen however • Between 2008 and 2011 the estimated number of employees at Coventry workplaces fell from about 142,600 to 138,800 with notable falls in business services, manufacturing and ‘other services’ jobs and a notable increase in public admin., education and health jobs • Between 2010 and 2011 the number of people working in the energy and water industry (categorised in ‘other’ in the charts below) increased notably. In this time most other sectors continued to lose jobs Back to Contents page

  16. The next update of this information is due: October 2013 Employment by industry– Coventry workplaces Source: ONS business register and employment survey 2011, NOMIS Back to Contents page

  17. Employment by industry Back to Contents page Source: Annual Business Inquiry 1998-2008, NOMIS

  18. The next update of this information is due: October 2013 Employment by industry Back to Contents page This data must not be compared to the 1998-2008 data on the previous slide, they are from different sources

  19. An error in the December 2012 edition has been corrected here. The number of business closures in 2010 was incorrectly quoted in the table as 1,295 The next update of this information is due: December 2013 Number of businesses • 8,665 Coventry businesses were active in 2011 • The number of business closures fell to 985 in 2011, from 1,070 in 2010 • The number of new businesses in Coventry was greater than the number of closures for the first time since 2008 Source: ONS Business Demography data 2011 Back to Contents page

  20. New business formation • 1,125 new business registered in Coventry in 2011, an notable increase on 965 in 2010. The rate of business formation is still however slightly lower than it was in 2008. The rate is 44 per 10,000 adults compared to the England average of 54 • Due to the recession business formation levels are still 5% down nationally and 8% down amongst similar metropolitan areas on 2008 levels. This fall was experienced between 2008 and 2009 with some recovery since • Fall of 4% in business formation in Coventry since 2008 , similar to the national average; formation recovered between 2010 and 2011 Back to Contents page

  21. The next update of this information is due: December 2013 Business formation Source: ONS Business Demography data 2011 Back to Contents page

  22. City Centre Footfall • 2012 Coventry City Centre footfall was down 2.9% compared to 2011, nationally footfall was down 3.2% on average Back to Contents page

  23. The next update of this information is due: April 2013 and July 2013 City Centre Void Units • During quarter 3 of 2013 there was a significant increase in the number of empty shops, from 47 to 57 void units within the primary retail area, the greatest increase since the national recession first hit the city • During quarter 4 there was a recovery however with a reduction of 9 from the previous quarter. There were 17 new stores opened over the past quarter (the most since Q4 2009) and 8 newly void units. In previous years there has typically been a fall in the number of empty shop between quarters 3 and 4 • In q4 there were 4 more empty shops than there were at the same time last year. • The shop vacancy rate in Coventry is 12.7% of ground floor units Back to Contents page

  24. An error in the January 2013 edition has been corrected here. The estimate for the number unemployed was incorrectly quoted as 12,200 – the estimate is actually 13,200 people. Labour MarketOctober 2011 – September 2012 data • The working age residents of Coventry (aged 16 – 64) make up about two thirds of the total population • About two thirds (65%) of working age residents of Coventry are in employment. Lower than the national average employment rate of 71% • The employment rate of 65% is down from 71% in 2007 before the recession; about 7,000 fewer in employment • About 136,500 people are in employment, 13,200 are unemployed and 61,600 people are economically inactive (e.g. long term sick, full time student, looking after family / home etc.) • The indications are that, after a deterioration during q3 2011, there has been a recovery during 2012 with increases in employment and decreases in unemployment. Economic inactivity remains relatively high in Coventry however, compared to the national average and to its level in recent years • Many of those claiming other out of work benefits (IB / ESA, lone parents on IS) are considered to be economically inactive Source: ONS Annual Population Survey October 2011 – September 2012 , NOMIS Back to Contents page

  25. The next updates of this information are due: 17th April 2013, 17th July 2013, 16th October 2013 Labour Market Back to Contents page

  26. An error in the January 2013 edition has been corrected here. The estimate for the number unemployed (and the associates rates) was incorrectly quoted as 12,200 – the estimate is actually 13,200 people. Unemployment • The official unemployment rate estimates the number of people who are out of work and have actively sought work in the last 4 weeks. It is measured using a survey, the Labour Force Survey • Using this definition, an estimated 13,200 Coventry residents are unemployed (Oct. 2011 – Sept. 2012 data); an unemployment rate of 8.6% of the economically active population compared to the England average of 7.9%. This rate should not be compared to the JSA rate • 9,675 claimants of Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in January 2013, a reduction from 10,505 in January 2012 • The seasonally adjusted JSA claimant rate is 4.6% of the working age population (January 2013).The JSA claimant count peaked at 11,570, 5.6% in October 2009 • JSA rate in January 2013 (seasonally adjusted); 3.8% across UK, 4.5% across the West Midlands region and 2.2% in Warwickshire Back to Contents page

  27. Unemployment (JSA) - trends • There was a general downward trend in the seasonally adjusted JSA claimant count in Coventry between August 2011 and July 2012 • This downward trend continued during the second half of 2012. The total JSA claimant count increased by 275 claimants between December 2012 and January 2013 • It is normal for the count to increase over this period due to seasonal effects, the seasonally adjusted claimant rate suggests that the JSA is still on a downward trend. The claimant count is now over 800 (8%) lower than it was at the same time last year • Regionally and nationally the claimant count has been falling more slowly during 2012 overall. The West Midlands is 6% down and the UK 4% down on the same time last year. Warwickshire is down by 12% on last year • The claimant rate in Coventry is at its lowest point since it peaked following the 2008 - 9 national recession • There are a total of 29,900 people claiming all out of work benefits, 14.4% of the working age population (q2 2012) (Metropolitan authorities average 15.9%, England average 11.8%) Back to Contents page

  28. The next updates of this information are due: 20th March 2013, 17th April 2013 Unemployment (JSA) trends Jan 2013: JSA rates from January 2011onwards have been adjusted as a result of a change in the working age population denominator. Mid 2011Census based population estimates have recently been published. Back to Contents page

  29. The next updates of this information are due: 20th March 2013, 17th April 2013 Unemployment - JSA See map report on Facts about Coventry Source: Jobseeker’s Allowance claimant count, ONS, NOMIS Back to Contents page

  30. The next updates of this information are due: 20th March 2013, 14th August 2013 Total out-of-work benefits claimants See report on Facts about Coventry Source: DWP Work and Pensions longitudinal study, NOMIS Total Other Lone Parents Incapacity Benefits / ESA JSA Jan 2013: Out-of-work Benefit claimant rates from Feb 2011onwards have been adjusted as a result of a change in the working age population denominator. Mid 2011Census based population estimates have recently been published. Back to Contents page

  31. Job Vacancies • 3,133 vacancies in Coventry reported to Jobcentre Plus during November 2012. This represents only a proportion of all job vacancies • The number of notified vacancies during August to November, a period when the JSA claimant count was falling, were notably up on the level of vacancies reported up to then during 2012 • During all of 2012 up to November, the monthly average number of reported vacancies in Coventry were up by 25% on 2011 levels. In Warwickshire they were up by over 50% • In November 2012 there were 3 Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants chasing every reported vacancy in Coventry, a similar ratio to the regional and national average. In Warwickshire there is just over 1 job seeker per vacancy • In November 2012 the ratio between job seekers and job vacancies was slightly lower than it was at the same time last year, principally because there are fewer Coventry residents claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance Back to Contents page

  32. This data will not be updated in the future JobVacancies Source: Jobcentre Plus vacancies, Department for Work and Pensions, NOMIS Back to Contents page

  33. The labour market mismatch • On average there were 3.0 people on JSA per Jobcentre Plus vacancy in November 2012 • In addition there are currently about 2,000 – 3,000 Coventry residents looking for work who are not on JSA benefits • Jobseekers looking for work in professional roles appear to face less competition with only about 2 claimants looking for such work per vacancy • Higher skills are generally better balanced but many start own business, many do not need to sign on. On the other hand, many vacancies for professional roles are not advertised at Jobcentre Plus • The biggest mismatches is found in sales & customer service occupations and elementary occupations. There were 6 jobseekers per reported vacancy for this type of work • There is also an imbalance in the market for administrative & secretarial occupations; an average of 5 jobseekers looking for work in these fields per reported vacancy Back to Contents page

  34. This data will not be updated in the future The labour market mismatch Back to Contents page

  35. Skills • It is estimated that 27% of working age residents of Coventry have higher level qualifications, those equivalent to or higher than a degree. Lower than the national average, similar to the regional average and higher than the West Midlands city region average • 17% have no qualifications, higher than the national average Back to Contents page

  36. The next update of this information is due: 17th April 2013 Skills See report on Facts about Coventry *Birmingham, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Telford & Wrekin, Walsall & Wolverhampton Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Jan 2011 – Dec 2011, NOMIS Back to Contents page

  37. www.bbc.co.uk/coventryatwork *Incomplete data for quarter 4 2011, awaiting results from some organisations. 122 posts cut is therefore a minimum for Q4 2011. Data source: BBC & Coventry City Council research. www.bbc.co.uk/coventryatwork Back to Contents page

  38. www.bbc.co.uk/coventryatwork Is the private sector absorbing public sector job losses? • The total public sector job cuts in Coventry captured in this research in the quarter July to September 2011 was 311 • In the quarter October – December 2011 there were at least 122 job cuts although not all organisations provided data for this quarter • All together from October 2010 to December 2011 there were 1,357 jobs cuts reported. About half the cuts have been in local public service providers and half in national ‘quango’ organisations with a small number reported from Universities. • It should be noted that the organisations supplying data in response to press enquiries has varied from quarter to quarter therefore the number of jobs cut may be under-reported • There has been limited in-sourcing or out-sourcing of services, and no evidence of wholesale transfer of jobs to the private sector through contracting • At the moment it is not possible to say whether or not the private sector is absorbing jobs lost to the public sector Back to Contents page

  39. www.bbc.co.uk/coventryatwork www.facts-about-coventry.com Back to Contents page

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