ADVANCED PLACEMENT PSYCHOLOGY

1. ADVANCED PLACEMENT PSYCHOLOGY Thinking Critically with Psychological Science http://psychtutor.weebly.com/research-methods.html

3. Objective ONE • Describe hindsight bias, and explain how it can make research findings seem like mere common sense

4. THREE LEVELS OF HINDSIGHT BIAS • I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon! • It involves the tendency people have to assume that they knew the outcome of an event after the outcome has already been determined • There are three levels of hindsight bias that stack on top of each other, from basic memory processes up to higher-level inference and belief

5. THREE LEVELS OF HINDSIGHT BIAS • I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon! • The first level of hindsight bias, memory distortion, involves misremembering an earlier opinion or judgment ('I said it would happen') • The second level, inevitability, centers on our belief that the event was inevitable ('It had to happen') • And the third level, foreseeability, involves the belief that we personally could have foreseen the event ('I knew it would happen')

6. Limits of Intuition and Common Sense/EXAMPLE #1 • I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon! • On the evening of an important NBA game by the Orlando Magic, your friend predicts that the Magic are going to win by a large margin. In fact, the Magicdo end up winning the game, causing your friend to boast “I predicted it!”

7. Limits of Intuition and Common Sense/EXAMPLE #2 • I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon! • A letter comes in the mail informing an individual that she was accepted into a college. When she tells her mother she says, “I really had a feeling that you were going to get in” (even though she had expressed doubts to her husband earlier that week).

8. Limits of Intuition and Common Sense/EXAMPLE #3 • I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon! • You are nervous to take an exam for which you waited to study until the very last minute. When you take the exam, you feel unsure about the results; however, when your grade comes back a B+, you exclaim to your friends, “I was sure that I’d aced that exam!” and actually believe it in hindsight.

9. Limits of Intuition and Common • Hindsight bias can also make us overconfident in how certain we are about our own judgments. • Research has shown, for example, that overconfident PEOPLE are more likely to take on risky, ill-informed situations that fail to produce a significant consequence or result

10. Objective TWO • Describe how overconfidence contaminates our everyday judgments

11. Overconfidence Effect • Johann Sebastian Bach, was anything but a one-hit wonder. • He composed numerous works. • How many concertos do you think Bach composed? • Choose a range, for example, between one hundred and five hundred, so that your estimate is at least 98 percent correct and only 2 percent off. • Write it on a piece of paper before you read on.

12. Overconfidence Effect • Please do the same with these two questions: • How many member states does OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) have? • How long is the Nile river?

13. Overconfidence Effect • Johann Sebastian Bach composed 1,127 works that survived to this day. He may have composed considerably more, but they are lost. • OPEC has 12 member states. • The Nile river is 4132 miles long.

14. DEMONSTRATION • HANDOUT 2-8 • FEMALE EMOTIONALITY • Look at the HANDOUT and at the bottom select the BEST CHOICE

15. DEMONSTRATION WERE THE PARTICIPANTS EMOTIONAL? WERE THE PARTICPANTS WOMEN

16. DEMONSTRATION • An illusory correlation is the perception of a relationship between two variables when only a minor or absolutely no relationship actually exists • Stereotypes are a good example of illusory correlations. • Research has shown that people tend to assume that certain groups and traits occur together and frequently overestimate the strength of the association between the two variables

17. Limits of Intuition and Common Sense • Overconfidence • Robert Vallorie study (1990); • The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which someone's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy, especially when confidence is relatively high. • For example, in our last quiz, students overall rated themselves wrong _?_% of the time

18. Limits of Intuition and Common Sense • Overconfidence • Robert Vallorie study (1990); • The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which someone's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy, especially when confidence is relatively high. • For example, in our last quiz, students overall rated themselves wrong _40_% of the time (it is the national average on these studies.

19. Scientific Approach • Two phenomena – hindsight bias and overconfidence – illustrate why we cannot rely solely on intuition and common sense • Scientific attitude, fed by curious skepticism and by humility, can help us sift reality from illusions

20. Objective THREE • Explain how the scientific attitude encourages critical thinking

21. The Scientific Attitude • As scientists, psychologists approach the world of behavior with a curious skepticism • Polish proverb: “to believe with certainty;” “we must begin by doubting.” • Psychologists ask two questions: • What do you mean? • How do you know?

22. Smart Thinking • The scientific attitude prepare psychologists and other professionals to think smarter. • Smart thinking, called critical thinking, examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assess conclusions • At what (approx) age does it begin? • At what (approx) age do we assign as having it (Frontal Lobe)?

23. Smart Thinking • Questioning attitude regarding psychologists’ assumptions and hidden values is known as critical thinking …another way of saying this…

24. Smart Thinking • When you question whether anecdotal evidence can be generalized to all people, you are applying critical thinking

25. Objective FOUR • Describe how psychological theories guide scientific research

26. Experimental Research Builds on the principles of positivist perspective and natural sciences (1) Starts with a causal hypothesis (2) Modify one specific aspect of a situation that is closely connected to the cause, and (3) Compare the outcome to what existed without the modification

27. Wilhelm Wundt • Credited with setting up the first psychology laboratory • Leipzig, Germany • 1879 • He claimed the psychological experience is composed of compounds, much like in chemistry • He claims he found two other compounds: sensations and feelings

28. Wilhelm Wundt • Methods proved cumbersome and unreliable • BUT • Wundt’s work is unimportant, however his procedure ultimately led to what he and his student (Edmund Titchener) will call “introspection” which will result in the SCIENTIFIC METHOD

29. Scientific Method

30. Steps in Experiment (1): • Hypothesis • Choose a design • Design experiment • How to introduce IV • How to measure DV • Locate subjects • Randomly assign subjects

31. Steps in Experiment (2): • Gather pretest data • Run experiment • Introduce treatment • Measure DV • Gather posttest data • Debrief • Analyze data

32. MARSHMALLOW EXPERIMENT • The "marshmallow experiment" is a well known test of this concept conducted by Walther Mischel at Stanford University • In the 1960s, a group of four-year-olds were given one marshmallow and promised a second one on the condition that they wait twenty minutes before eating the first one. • Some children were able to wait and others could not.

33. EXPERIMENT • Deferred gratification or delayed gratification is the ability to wait in order to obtain something that one wants

34. EXPERIMENT • Definition: • One type of research method in which the investigator manipulates one or more independent variables (IV) • to determine the effect(s) on some behavior (the dependent variable) while controlling other relevant factors

36. EXPERIMENT • Dependent Variable • The variable in an experiment that is measured; the outcome of an experiment. • ????? • Being able to delay gratification or not • Independent Variable • The variable in an experiment that is manipulated or compared • ????? • The MARSHMALLOW

37. THE EXPERIMENT • Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging. • When presented with tempting stimuli, individuals with low self-control showed brain patterns that differed from those with high self-control. • The researchers found that the prefrontal cortex (a region that controls executive functions, such as making choices) was more active in subjects with higher self-control • The ventral striatum (a region thought to process desires and rewards) showed boosted activity in those with lower self-control.

38. EXPERIMENT • Deferred gratification or delayed gratificationis the ability to wait in order to obtain something that one wants • Kate Dawson argued that people with poor impulse control suffer from "weak ego boundaries". • This term originates in Psychoanalytic theory of personality where the idis the pleasure principle, the ego is the reality principle, and the superego is the morality principle.

39. EXPERIMENT • Deferred gratification or delayed gratification is the ability to wait in order to obtain something that one wants • Cognitive-behaviorists believe that poor impulse control may be related to biological factors in the brain. • Researchers have found that children with FETAL ALCOHOL SYNDROME are less able to delay gratification

40. MARSHMALLOW EXPERIMENT • The researchers then followed the progress of each child into adolescence and demonstrated that those with the ability to wait were • better adjusted and more dependable (determined via surveys of their parents and teachers), (2) scored significantly higher (avg. 210 pts) on the Scholastic Aptitude Test ; and (3) predictive of delinquency due to poor impulse control as a child

41. Psychologists can test the hypotheses and refinethe theories using:1.Description 2. Correlation 3. Experimental Methods Scientific Method

42. Objective FIVE • Identify an advantage and a disadvantage of using case studies to study behavior

43. Description • The starting point of any science is description • We observe and draw conclusions everyday • Psychologists observe and draw conclusions like every one of us; except they are more objective and the process more systematic • Among the oldest research method is the case study

44. CASE STUDY • A case study is an in-depth exploration of a particular context, such as a classroom or group of individuals that involves the collection of extensive qualitative data usually via interview, observation, and document analysis.

45. Description • Case Studies • Advantages • Suggest hypotheses for further study • Show us what can happen • Disadvantages • Individual cases can be misleading as a person may be atypical • Unrepresented information can lead to mistaken judgments and false conclusions

46. Objective SIX • Identify the advantages and disadvantages of using surveys to study behavior and mental processes, and explain the importance of wording effects and random sampling

47. Survey • The survey method looks at many cases in less depth • Harris and Gallup polls • However, asking questions can be tricky, and the answers may well depend on your wording and your choice of respondents

48. QUESTION LET’S DO A SURVEY, OKAY? WHO IN THIS CLASSROOM CHEATS ON MY STUFF?

49. Survey: Wording Effects • Even subtle changes in the order or wording of questions can have major effects on the responses • Surveys indicate that people are much less likely to support “welfare” than “aid to the needy” indicating changing the wording can change the result of the survey • Audience selection is critical • School Survey: “Do you cheat on tests”

50. Survey: Random Sampling • Everyday we spend a lot of time with a biased sample of people – mostly those who share our attitudes and habits • When we wonder how many people hold a particular belief, those who think as we do come to our mind first • This tendency to overestimate others’ agreement with us is the false consensus effect • Liberals think more people support liberal views; and vice-versa with conservatives