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Mobility Technology 2002

Mobility Technology 2002. A Report on Emerging Technologies in Passenger Car, Air Transportation and Heavy Duty Industries. Presentation Outline. MTPF Background Push & Pull Technologies MTPF Themes Assessment Of Industry Needs And Emerging Technologies For Each Theme

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Mobility Technology 2002

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  1. Mobility Technology 2002 A Report on Emerging Technologies in Passenger Car, Air Transportation and Heavy Duty Industries

  2. Presentation Outline • MTPF Background • Push & Pull Technologies • MTPF Themes • Assessment Of Industry Needs And Emerging Technologies For Each Theme • Common Technologies • Results, Conclusions, Next Steps

  3. Background • Mobility Technology Planning Forum (MTPF) • Organized by SAE Emerging Technology Advisory Board • Objective - Advise SAE Board Of Directors, Other Operating Boards & Committees, & Leaders On Emerging Technologies • Generally Every Three Years • To Be Used For Strategic Planning • Written Report To The Board - March, 2002 • Oral Presentations • SAE World Congress (March 6, 2002), • World Aviation Congress (November 5-7, 2002), Sheraton Crescent Hotel, Phoenix, Arizona • International Truck & Bus Meeting and Exhibition (November 18-20, 2002), Cobo Center, Detroit, Michigan

  4. ETAB & MTPF Leadership • SAE Emerging Technology Advisory Board • Objective - Advise SAE Leadership On Emerging Technologies • Led By Dr. Jamie Hsu, General Motors Research & Development Center • MTPF Organizers • Dr. Robert Krieger, The Boeing Company • Mr. Bharat Vedak, Cummins Inc. • MTPF Session Chairmen • Passenger Car - Mr. Tom Moore, DaimlerChrysler Corporation • Air Transportation - Mr. Don Nilson, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company • Heavy Duty - Mr. Steve Craney, Riverside Electronics Limited

  5. Process Overview MTPF 2002 • Technology Experts From Mobility Industries @ Scottsdale - January, 2002 • Passenger Car, Air Transportation, Heavy Duty • Focused On Three Themes • Global Design & Build • Universally Friendly • Have It My Way • Futurist & Visionary Speakers To Stimulate Thinking • For Each Major Theme: • Break-out Sessions By Industry • Industry Cross-Linking Sessions To Identify Common Technologies • Storyboard Technology Summary For The Themes • Follow-up E-mail Survey On “Push” Technologies

  6. Participants

  7. General Observations • MTPF 2002 Met Expectations • Alert Mechanism On Emerging Technologies • Surprising Uniformity In Customer Needs In Seemingly Different Industry Segments Of Mobility Industry • Passenger Car, Air Transportation, Heavy Duty • Amazing Convergence Of Technologies Between Industry Segments • Information Technologies • Wireless Communications • Materials • Flexible Manufacturing • Virtual Reality Tools • Convergence Of Customer Needs & Technologies Reinforce SAE’s Role In Representing The Mobility Industry On Significant Issues • Participation In MTPF Educational, “Constructive Fun” • 100% Positive Response In Survey

  8. Push & Pull Technologies • Pull Technologies - Current Or Imminent Technologies Sought (“Pulled”) By Industry To Fulfill Identified Customer Needs • Proven Concepts • Need Additional Engineering Development • Need To Be Made Production Ready • Solutions Addressing Known Problems/Needs • Push Technologies - Advanced Concepts That Need Considerable Work To Bring To Fruition • Need “Push” From Government, Universities & Industry • Immature Technologies • Technological Solutions Creating New Opportunities

  9. Push & Pull Technologies (Continued….) • MTPF 2002 Process Was Customer-Needs Oriented • Break-out sessions identified customer needs, followed by technologies to meet those needs. • Industry segment output as starting point for cross-linking sessions. • Fast cycle times & reliability needs require technologies to be ready well ahead of placing in customers’ hands. • Resulted in a preference in the MTPF towards “pull” technologies. • Follow-up E-mail Survey Of MTPF Participants To Identify Additional “Push” Technologies

  10. MTPF Results • Consolidated Around 3 Themes: • Global Design & Build - Industry needs to have global designs and the capability to build products around the world. • Universally Friendly - Societal need to have environmentally friendly products “from cradle to grave”. • Have It My Way - Customer (end user) need to have the product tailored to his/her specific need. • For Each Of The Themes, Determined: • Customer Needs By Industry • Technologies By Industry • Common Technologies Across All Industries • Lessons Learned - Recommend A “Push” Technology Brain-Storming Session Be Added To Future MTPFs

  11. Universally Friendly Passenger Car Industry Needs Technologies Common Areas Heavy Duty Industry e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools) Energy Conversion and Management Emissions Technologies Common On-Board Diagnostics Autonomous Controls Improved Human Machine Interface Needs Technologies Aerospace Industry Needs Technologies

  12. Universally Friendly - Passenger Car • Identified 26 Needs And Challenges • Top Needs • Congestion • Safety • Inexpensive And Robust • Upgradeable Technologies • Future Feature Enablers • Recyclability • Driver Distraction • Passenger Comfort • User Friendly (Non-Operational/Operational) • Customer Re-Configurable

  13. Universally Friendly - Passenger Car • Identified 28 Technologies • Top Technologies • Vehicle Network (Intra-Vehicle) • Vehicle Network (Inter-Vehicle) • Design For Flexibility And Future Requirements • Vision Technologies • Voice/Speech Technologies • Sensors/Actuators • Intelligent Transportation Systems • Front And Rear Obstacle Avoidance • On Condition-Based Maintenance • Operator Simplicity

  14. Universally Friendly - Air Transportation • Identified 21 Needs And Challenges • Top Needs • More Accurate Fault Diagnostics • High Fidelity And Accurate Simulations • Minimum Of Training Required For Product Use • Operator Overload • Cultural Differences In Interpretation • Operational Override • Situation Dependent Man-Machine Interfaces • Virtual Testing Of Complex Systems • Design For Maintainability • Rapid Prototyping For Better Products

  15. Universally Friendly - Air Transportation • Identified 20 Technologies • Top Technologies • Embedded Sensors, Health Management, Prognostics, MEMS-Based Systems • Expert Systems, Man-Machine Interfaces (Operator Information Overload), Biological System Monitors • Threat Detection • Self-Correcting Or Adaptive Controls • Comfortable, Health Ergonomics/Environment, Thermal, Humidity • Re-Configurability • Knowledge Database • High Data Rate/Communications For Entertainment • Rapid Prototyping

  16. Universally Friendly - Heavy Duty • Identified 30 Needs And Challenges • Top Needs • Fault Tolerant • Ergonomics • Configurable • Reusable • Repairable • Minimum Operator Skills - Migrating Toward Autonomy • Upgradeable • Conforms To Regulations • Safer Or The Perception Of Safer • Remanufacturable

  17. Universally Friendly - Heavy Duty • Identified 19 Technologies • Top Technologies • Modular Design • Knowledge Management Systems • Independent Subsystems - Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive • Telematics • Secure And Robust Internal And External Networks • Open “Architecture” • Advanced Materials - Plastics, Fluids, Smart • Exhaust Aftertreatments • Smart Sensors • Voice Activation

  18. Universally Friendly - Storyboard Summary • 6 Technologies Identified As Common Across All Industries • System Design For Flexibility And Modular Independent Subsystems, Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive • Telematics/High Bandwidth Data Transfer • Knowledge Management/Expert Systems • Prognostics/Embedded Sensors • Object Detection And Recognition • Human Machine Interface

  19. Universally Friendly Air Transportation Needs More Accurate Fault Diagnostics High Fidelity & Accurate Simulation Top Technologies Minimum of Training Required for Product Use Embedded Sensors Operator Overload - Health Management Cultural Difference in Interpretation - Prognostics Operational Override - MEMS-Based System Situation Dependent Man-Machine Interface Expert Systems Virtual Testing of Complete Systems - Man-Machine Interface Design for Maintainability -Biological System Monitors Rapid Prototyping for Better Products Threat Detection Self-Correcting or Adaptive Control Comfortable - Health Ergonomics - Environmental, Thermal, Humidity Reconfigurable Knowledge Database Rapid Prototyping High Data Rate/Communication for Entertainment Common Areas System Design for Reliability and Modular Independent Subsystem , Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive Telematics /High Bandwidth Data Transfer Knowledge Management/Expert Systems Prognostics/Embedded Sensors Object Detection and Recognition Human Machine Interface

  20. Global Design & Build Passenger Car Industry Needs Technologies Common Areas Heavy Duty Industry e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools) Energy Conversion and Management Emissions Technologies Common On-Board Diagnostics Autonomous Controls Improved Human Machine Interface Needs Technologies Aerospace Industry Needs Technologies

  21. Global Design & Build - Passenger Car • Identified 33 Needs And Challenges • Top Needs • Congestion • Differences Among Regions (Languages, Customs, etc.) • Fuel Economy & Emissions • Common Platforms But Unique Products • High Volume, Cost-Effective Manufacturing

  22. Global Design & Build - Passenger Car • Identified 27 Technologies • Top Technologies • E-Collaboration • Tools To Enable Flexible Production • Common CAD Tools • Hydrogen Supply (Fuel Cells) • Designer Materials - Light, Strong, Affordable

  23. Global Design & Build - Air Transportation • Identified 23 Needs And Challenges • Top Needs • Ability For Competitors To Work As A Global Community • Reconciling Mass Production With Optimization • Competitive Pressures • E-Collaboration • Variation Control • Knowledge Capture To Avoid Mistakes

  24. Global Design & Build - Air Transportation • Identified 20 Technologies • Top Technologies • Broadband Communications • Information Security & Integrity • System Engineering Standards & Protocols • Virtual Reality Tools • Knowledge Management • Communication Tools

  25. Global Design & Build - Heavy Duty • Identified 12 Needs And Challenges • Top Needs • Durability & Reliability • Coordinated Worldwide Operations • Productivity • Cost • Emissions • Safety

  26. Global Design & Build - Heavy Duty • Identified 13 Technologies • Top Technologies • Communications Protocols • Smart, Autonomous Machines • Exhaust Aftertreatment • Electric Drives

  27. Global Design & Build - Storyboard Summary • 6 Technologies Identified As Common Across All Industries • E-Collaboration (Virtual Tools) • Energy Conversion & Management • Emission Technologies • On-Board Diagnostics • Autonomous Controls • Improved Human-Machine Interfaces

  28. Global Design & Build Air Transportation Needs Ability For Competitors To Work As A Community Mass Production vs. Optimization Balance Competitive Pressures Variation Control e-Collaboration Knowledge Capture To Avoid Mistakes Top Technologies Broadband Communications Information Security and Integrity System Engineering Standards and Protocols Virtual Reality Tools Knowledge Management Communication Tools Common Areas e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools) Energy Conversion and Management Emissions Technologies On-Board Diagnostics Autonomous Controls Improved Human Machine Interface

  29. Have It My Way Passenger Car Industry Needs Technologies Common Areas Heavy Duty Industry e-Collaboration (Virtual Tools) Energy Conversion and Management Emissions Technologies Common On-Board Diagnostics Autonomous Controls Improved Human Machine Interface Needs Technologies Aerospace Industry Needs Technologies

  30. Have It My Way - Passenger Car • Identified 33 Needs And Challenges • Top Needs • Congestion • Diversification Of Languages, Customer Needs Worldwide • Value Of Time/Convenience (Customers Want Service On Their Schedule Not On The Manufacturer’s Schedule) • Environment, Health And Safety • Inexpensive And Robust • Upgradeable Technologies & Customer Re-Configurable Features

  31. Have It My Way - Passenger Car • Identified 28 Technologies • Top Technologies • Multi-Protocol Architecture • Modular Design • 7-Day Car • Plug-And-Play Architecture • Personalization Cards (Seats, Radios, Mirrors, etc.) • Recyclable Interiors • Wireless/Web Connections - Blue Tooth Telephones

  32. Have It My Way - Air Transportation • Identified 5 Needs And Challenges • Configuration Control Challenges • Modification Downtime Costs Money • Customer (Government) Dictates Requirements, No Supplier Input • Obsolescence Causes Spare Parts Problem • Design Changes By Subcontractors Cause Problems

  33. Have It My Way - Air Transportation • Identified 14 Technologies • Top Technologies • Optimization Tool For Business Decisions – Coupling Engineering And Business • Quantum Computing, Wireless Componentry • Rapid Prototyping/Electrons To Parts • Modeling Plus Simulation/Virtual Reality • Open Systems Architecture • Modular Design Processes/Systems Engineering • Smart Card With As-Built History

  34. Have It My Way - Heavy Duty • Identified 4 Needs And Challenges • “Traditional Customer” Is Changing – Rental, Leasing, “Power By The Hour”, Other • Duty Cycle Changes Drive Need For “Flexible Products” • Emphasis on Performance/Functionality, not Hardware • Competition Is Driving To Lowest Product & Operating Costs

  35. Have It My Way - Heavy Duty • Identified 9 Technologies • Configurable Performance – Modular Stand-Alone Design • Performance Monitoring • Intelligent Systems Connected To External Communications Tools • Sensors • Flexible Manufacturing Environment – Speed To Market • Knowledge Management Systems To Understand Customer Needs • Advanced Materials – Coatings, Lubricants • Automatic Qualification Systems • “Virtual Reality” Tools

  36. Have It My Way - Storyboard Summary • 7 Technologies Identified As Common Across All Industries • Modular Design • Virtual Reality Tools • Knowledge-Based Product Support • Plug & Play – Open Architecture • Seven-Day Car • Pervasive Computing • Tools To Integrate Business & Engineering

  37. Have It My Way Air Transportation Needs Configuration Control & Challenges Modification Downtime Costs Money Customization Options Obsolescence Top Technologies Optimization Tools for Business Decisions - Coupling Engineering & Business Quantum Computing, Wireless Componentry Rapid Prototyping, Electronic Parts Modeling Plus Simulation Virtual Reality Open System Architecture Modular Design Processes - System Engineering Smart Card with As-Built History Passenger Car Needs Congestion Diversification of Customer Need - Worldwide Value of Customer Time, Convenience Environment, Health & Safety Inexpensive & Robust Upgradeable Features Top Technologies Multi-Protocol Architecture Modular Design Seven Day Car Plug & Play Architecture Personalization Card - Seats, Radio, Mirrors Recyclable Interiors Wireless-Web Connections - Blue Tooth Telephone

  38. Push Technologies Identified After MTPF • On-board Hydrogen Generation • NaBH Fuel - Safe, Dense Storage of Hydrogen • Hybrid Electric Vehicles & Systems • Electric Drives/Fuel Cells • Intelligent Vehicle Systems • Interface With Intelligent Highways • Electronic Safety Cocoon Systems • Drive-By Wireless Systems, Operator-Assist • Autonomous Vehicles • Voice-Activated Systems • MEMS-Based Systems

  39. Push Technologies • Short Range Wireless Technology ( i.e. -Blue Tooth) • Smart Cards - With As-Built History, Or Used For Customized Configurations • Designer Materials • Diesel Exhaust NOx Absorbers • Energy Recovery & Storage Technologies • Nano-Technology • Self-Assembling Materials • Spintronics

  40. Summary - Common Technologies Identified • E-Collaboration (Virtual Tools) • Energy Conversion & Management • Emission Technologies • On-board Diagnostics • Autonomous Controls • Improved Human-Machine Interfaces • System Design For Flexibility And Modular Independent Subsystems, Intelligent, Fault Tolerant, Adaptive • Telematics/High Bandwidth Data Transfer • Knowledge Management/Expert Systems

  41. Summary - Common Technologies Identified (Continued) • Prognostics/Embedded Sensors • Object Detection And Recognition • Modular Design • Virtual Reality Tools • Knowledge-Based Product Support • Plug & Play – Open Architecture • Seven-Day Car • Pervasive Computing • Tools To Integrate Business & Engineering

  42. Conclusions & Next Steps • MTPF 2002 Was Successful • Served As An Alert Mechanism • Several “Pull”, “Push” And “AHA !” Technologies Identified • Great Learning & Networking Opportunity • Convergence Of Needs And Technologies In The Mobility Industry • Recommend Holding Next MTPF In 3 Years • Should Include Some MTPF 2002 Organizers/Participants • Add A Break-out Session For “Push” Technologies • Next Steps In The Hands Of The SAE Board & Operating Boards • ETAB To Be Available To Present Findings • Distribution To Participants, Engineering VPs And Through SAE Website • Thanks To SAE Staff, ETAB & MTPF Participants

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