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Wheat Outlook. William I. Tierney, Jr. PhD Chief Economist AgResource Company, Chicago IL. OSU Extension Webinar April 15, 2013. US Wheat Supply & Demand. U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions: 2 nd Week of April. US Drought Monitor – 2013 vs 2012. Apr 10 , 2012. Apr 09 , 2013.

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Wheat outlook

Wheat Outlook

William I. Tierney, Jr. PhD

Chief Economist

AgResource Company, Chicago IL.

OSU Extension Webinar

April 15, 2013



U s winter wheat crop conditions 2 nd week of april
U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions: 2nd Week of April


Us drought monitor 2013 vs 2012
US Drought Monitor – 2013 vs2012

Apr 10, 2012

Apr 09, 2013

Drought Severity

D0 - Abnormally Dry

D1 - Drought - Moderate

D2 - Drought - Severe

D3 - Drought - Extreme

D4 - Drought - Exceptional


Global wheat s weather problems also include too much rain
Global Wheat’s Weather Problems Also Include Too Much Rain

“The Summer That Never Was in UK” Will

Boost UK’s Imports. Continued Rains Will

Reduce 2013 Area Seeded by 12-15%.

14 Mln Ha Affected by Flooding in Arg’s

Buenos Aires and Santa Cruz. How Much

Much Damage Did Wheat Crop Suffer?


Crops in canada u s n plains will be planted late resulting in lost acres and reduced yields
Crops in Canada & U.S. N. Plains Will be Planted Late Resulting in Lost Acres and Reduced Yields

Approximate crop yield decline each day

Alberta crops’ seeding date is delayed after May 1

Crop% Yield decline/day

Barley - grain 1.3

Barley - silage 1.0

Triticale - grain 0.8

Triticale - silage 1.1

Wheat – HRS 0.8

Wheat - durum 1.3

Canola 1.7

Flax 0.6


2013 world wheat crop to be 2 nd largest on record
2013 World Wheat Crop to be 2 Resulting in Lost Acres and Reduced Yields nd Largest on Record.


Big crop compensates for small beginning stocks
Big Crop Compensates for Small Beginning Stocks. Resulting in Lost Acres and Reduced Yields



More wheat fed next year but trade in feed wheat will be down
More Wheat Fed Next Year But Trade Biofuels Use.in “Feed Wheat” Will Be Down.







Lowest world corn stock use s ince 1974
Lowest World Corn Stock/Use Stocks/Use and Corn PriceSince 1974





$.40/Bu “Carry” from Jul ‘13 to Mar ‘14 ($.05/Bu/Month). Farmers With On-Farm Storage May Want to Hedge in KWH14.

KC HRW 13% is 40-50 cents/bu > HRW Ord.

Problems with N. American Spring Wheat crop

could push up protein premiums.


Why are wheat end users traders so calm
Why ($.05/Bu/Month). Farmers With On-Farm Storage May Want to Hedge in KWH14.Are Wheat End Users (Traders) So Calm?


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