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Wheat Outlook. William I. Tierney, Jr. PhD Chief Economist AgResource Company, Chicago IL. OSU Extension Webinar April 15, 2013. US Wheat Supply & Demand. U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions: 2 nd Week of April. US Drought Monitor – 2013 vs 2012. Apr 10 , 2012. Apr 09 , 2013.

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Wheat Outlook

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Wheat outlook

Wheat Outlook

William I. Tierney, Jr. PhD

Chief Economist

AgResource Company, Chicago IL.

OSU Extension Webinar

April 15, 2013


Us wheat supply demand

US Wheat Supply & Demand


U s winter wheat crop conditions 2 nd week of april

U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions: 2nd Week of April


Us drought monitor 2013 vs 2012

US Drought Monitor – 2013 vs2012

Apr 10, 2012

Apr 09, 2013

Drought Severity

D0 - Abnormally Dry

D1 - Drought - Moderate

D2 - Drought - Severe

D3 - Drought - Extreme

D4 - Drought - Exceptional


Global wheat s weather problems also include too much rain

Global Wheat’s Weather Problems Also Include Too Much Rain

“The Summer That Never Was in UK” Will

Boost UK’s Imports. Continued Rains Will

Reduce 2013 Area Seeded by 12-15%.

14 Mln Ha Affected by Flooding in Arg’s

Buenos Aires and Santa Cruz. How Much

Much Damage Did Wheat Crop Suffer?


Crops in canada u s n plains will be planted late resulting in lost acres and reduced yields

Crops in Canada & U.S. N. Plains Will be Planted Late Resulting in Lost Acres and Reduced Yields

Approximate crop yield decline each day

Alberta crops’ seeding date is delayed after May 1

Crop% Yield decline/day

Barley - grain1.3

Barley - silage1.0

Triticale - grain0.8

Triticale - silage 1.1

Wheat – HRS0.8

Wheat - durum1.3

Canola1.7

Flax0.6


2013 world wheat crop to be 2 nd largest on record

2013 World Wheat Crop to be 2nd Largest on Record.


Big crop compensates for small beginning stocks

Big Crop Compensates for Small Beginning Stocks.


Per capita use has been steady thanks in part to eu biofuels use

Per Capita Use Has Been Steady Thanks, In Part, to EU Biofuels Use.


More wheat fed next year but trade in feed wheat will be down

More Wheat Fed Next Year But Trade in “Feed Wheat” Will Be Down.


No growth in world wheat trade

No Growth in World Wheat Trade


Despite near record crop global stocks use will slip in 2013 14

Despite Near-Record Crop, Global Stocks/Use Will Slip in 2013/14.


Us srw now world s cheapest wheat but black sea new crop quotes less than us

US SRW Now World’s Cheapest Wheat. But Black Sea “New Crop Quotes” Less Than US.


India has more wheat to export but will they sell at prices below the govt s support price

India Has More Wheat to Export But Will They Sell At Prices Below The Govt’s Support Price?


Wheat prices seem to be a function of exporters stocks use and corn price

Wheat Prices Seem to be a Function of Exporters’ Stocks/Use and Corn Price


Lowest world corn stock use s ince 1974

Lowest World Corn Stock/Use Since 1974


Chicago wheat nearing largest net short since 2006

Chicago Wheat Nearing Largest Net Short since 2006


A weekly close above the downtrend line signals to hold off on further sales

A Weekly Close Above The Downtrend Line Signals to Hold Off on Further Sales.


Downside risk is 6 00 bu basis the nearby kcbt futures history

Downside Risk is $6.00/Bu Basis the “Nearby” KCBT Futures History


Wheat outlook

$.40/Bu “Carry” from Jul ‘13 to Mar ‘14 ($.05/Bu/Month). Farmers With On-Farm Storage May Want to Hedge in KWH14.

KC HRW 13% is 40-50 cents/bu > HRW Ord.

Problems with N. American Spring Wheat crop

could push up protein premiums.


Why are wheat end users traders so calm

Why Are Wheat End Users (Traders) So Calm?


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