Public Opinion and The Political Process

1. Public Opinion and The Political Process Polling, Preferences, and Policy

2. Public Opinion • what people think about a certain issue at a particular point in time • directly related to issue in question • Why Time?

3. Formation of Public Opinion • Family • Schools • Mass Media • Peer Groups • Opinion Leaders • Historic Events

4. Purpose of Polling • Provide some input in the policymaking process • Help candidates detect public preferences • Provides an outlet for ideas in times other than election years • Help interpret the meaning of elections

5. Polling and Elections • Public’s opinion on the issues help translate the meaning of an election • Candidates, aware of public opinion, stay away from extremist positions • Result—political process becomes more responsive to voters • Elections often between two moderates

6. Scientific Polling • 5 components • Random sampling • Questions must be comprehensible • Questions must be asked fairly • Categories of responses must be carefully considered • Sampling error

7. Analyzing Polls • Question? How was the poll conducted? Self-selected volunteers? Internet Telephone call-in polls • Sponsor of the study? • Reporting of results

8. Scientific Polling Random Sampling • Usually 1000-1500 sampled • Idea that each potential voter or adult has the same chance of being selected • **Stratified Sampling – sampling using subcategories • Most rigorous sampling technique • Census data used • 4 Sampling regions in U.S.

9. Scientific PollingSampling Error • In general, the greater the number of people sampled the smaller the sampling error • Results of polls usually reflect how people will respond with a 95 percent degree of certainty, within plus/minus 3 percentage points

10. If the election were held today, who would you vote for President? (+/- 3) • Obama 48% • McCain 46% • Add 3 to both. Obama 51%, McCain 49%. • Subtract 3 from both. Obama 45%, McCain 43%. • Add 3 to Obama, subtract 3 from McCain • Obama 51%, McCain 43% (O has wide margin) • Subtract 3 from Obama, add 3 to McCain • Obama 45%, McCain 49% (Mac is now ahead) • Conclusion? none

11. Scientific Polling • Telephone survey of 1,050 adults throughout the United States. Of these, 843 said they were registered to vote. • The sample of telephone exchanges called was randomly selected by a computer from a complete list of more than 42,000 active residential exchanges across the country.

12. Scientific Polling • In theory, in 19 cases out of 20 the results based on such samples will differ by no more than three percentage in either points direction from what would have been obtained by seeking out all American adults.

13. Proliferation of Polling • Proliferation linked to ability of candidates/politicians to raise money to buy polling services • Clinton spent close to $1.9 million alone in 1993 (after the election) on polling • Hundreds of polls in this as in other presidential campaigns

14. Horse Race Polling

15. Polling sites • Takes an average of all polls. • www.pollingreport.com • www.pollster.com

16. Criticisms of Polling • People lie • “Likely” or “registered” voters may be suspect • Polls show flat snap shots of a three dimensional world • Passive, often ill informed decisions are substitutes for active expression

17. Criticisms of Polling • The wording of polling is important in understanding poll results • Responses to highly emotional issues are often skewed depending on the wording • Ex. Support for abortion can range from 40 to 90 percent depending on the question asked • Ex. “Welfare” or “assistance to the poor”

18. Criticisms of PollingThe Straw Poll • Polls and gauging public opinion at stages in campaign may discourage individuals from running for office or from raising money

19. Criticisms of Polling • The Exit Poll Exit polls may evoke criticism but voter turnout has not been truly influenced • Polling creates a “bandwagon effect” • Polling creates an “underdog effect”

20. The Underdog Effect • During the primaries, all four candidates claimed at some point to be the “underdog” • Idea is that people rally around a candidate who is behind in the polls

21. Types of Polls • Straw or SLOP - • unreliable as can vote many times; • only those interested participate • Tracking polls – see notes earlier • Push polls – • Not a real poll as designed to influence opinion, NOT measure it • Provides negative info (often false and misleading) in the question stem • Ex. If you found out that Palin had a teenage abortion, would you vote for her? • Exit polls: asking voters for whom they voted after leaving the voting booth • Some lie as don’t want their companion or neighbor to know how they really voted; Don’t want others to overhear • Can give voting tendency prior to final count, especially if one candidate has a huge lead

22. Is Government Responsive to Public Opinion? • Government officials pay attention not only to the direction of public opinion but to its intensity(not measurable by polls, can be measured by # of emails/letters/calls) • When changes in public opinion were clear-cut, government policy usually became consistent with public opinion • Applies to ALL 3 branches

23. Is Government Responsive to Public Opinion? • Yet policy can sometimes not be reflective of public opinion • Those who vote often differ in opinion with those who do not vote • Elected officials respond to voters • There is nothing sacred about public opinion • Public opinion may be wrong

24. Public opinion is not the only influence on public policy, nor is it always the most important Also influencing policy are… Interest Groups Political Parties Other government institutions Government officials Is Government Responsive to Public Opinion?

25. The Truman Debacle Gallup polls quit 2 weeks before election, missing last-minute voters’ shift to Truman

26. The classic Literary Digest goof • Over the years Literary Digest had developed a sizable mailing list. In 1928 the magazine decided to use its list to conduct a poll for that year’s presidential election. People were sent mock ballots which they were asked to mark with their preference and return to the magazine. The poll’s final outcome was within four percentage points of Hoover’s actual victory margin. Four years later the magazine’s prediction was within two points of Roosevelt’s winning percentage. • Buoyed by its previous successes the magazine launched its largest survey ever in 1936. Going beyond its own mailing list, Literary Digest also added names from auto registration lists and telephone directories to send out a total of more than 10 million ballots. Considerable time and expense had to be devoted to tabulating the flood of 2.4 million ballots returned. When they were all in, the magazine predicted that Alf Landon would carry 32 states and defeat Roosevelt by 57% to 43%. • Needless to say, the Digest was sorely embarrassed by the final outcome, a 61% to 37% Roosevelt landslide that left Landon with only two states and eight electoral votes compared to Roosevelt’s 523. Not long after, the magazine went out of business.