Public Opinion and Political Socialization

1. Public Opinion and Political Socialization Unit II – Political Beliefs and Behaviors AP U.S. Government and Politics

2. Introduction • This chapter deals with public opinion and its influence on U.S. politics. • Public opinion – The politically relevant opinions held by ordinary citizens that they express openly. • Americans’ political opinions are shaped by a variety of factors. • Public opinion has an important impact on government, but usually doesn’t determine what officials will do.

3. Political Socialization • Political socialization is the learning process by which people acquire their political opinions, beliefs, and values. • Political opinions are part of political culture. • Political culture – the characteristic and deep-seated beliefs of a particular people about gov’t and politics. • The political socialization process takes place through a number of agents of socialization. • Agents of socialization – Those agents, such as the family and the media, that have a significant impact on citizens’ political affiliation.

4. Socializing Agents

5. Party Identification • Partisanship is a major frame of political reference for many Americans. • Party identification – a person’s sense of loyalty to a political party. • Party identification is not formal membership in a party but rather an emotional attachment to it. • Partisanship impacts how people “see” candidates and issues. • Selective Perception leads to people selectively choosing information that supports what they already believe.

6. Political Ideology • Ideology – A consistent pattern of opinion on particular issues that stems from a core set of beliefs. • Less than ¼ of Americans have opinions consistent enough to have a true political ideology. • Most Americans have ideological leanings. • economic liberals vs. economic conservatives • cultural (social) liberals vs. cultural (social) conservatives • libertarians vs. populists • Ideological tendencies are a good way to look at how Americans think about government.

7. Group Orientations • Many Americans’ group affiliation impacts their political beliefs. • Self-interest is tied to the group, and they are likely to respond when an issue arises that affects the group. • Religion • Catholics and Jews have obligation to help the poor. • The “Religious Right” see the Bible as infallible truth. • Opinions on abortion, gay rights, school prayer differ from society as a whole. • Economic Class • Income and education level affect Americans’ opinions. • Lower income Americans more likely to support welfare; higher income Americans more likely to support tax cuts.

8. Group Orientations, cont. • Region • “Red States” – Republican bastions in the South, Great Plains, and Rocky Mountains. • “Blue States” – Democratic bastions in the Northeast, northern Midwest, and West Coast. • Race and Ethnicity • Blacks and Hispanics more supportive of affirmative action and less trusting of police and judicial system. • Gender • Men and Women think alike on many issues but differ on others. • Women – more likely to support poverty assistance and education. • Men – more likely to support use of military force.

10. Group Orientations, cont. • Generations and Age • Americans of different ages respond differently to age-related policies. • Older people are more likely to be involved in the political process than younger people. • Crosscutting • Individuals belong to multiple groups, leading to crosscutting. • One group’s beliefs will offset another’s leading to political moderation.

11. Measuring Public Opinion • Government is based on a system of relationships one can’t see. • Public opinion is the same way, since we can’s “see” it, we must measure it indirectly. • Today, the primary method for estimating public opinion is through polls. • In a public opinion poll, a relatively few individuals – the sample – are interviewed to estimate the opinions of a whole population. • Choosing respondents at random will allow their opinions to approximate those of the entire population.

12. Public Opinion Polls • The accuracy of a poll is expressed in terms of sampling error. • Sampling error is the degree to which the sample estimates may differ from what the population actually thinks. • The Gallup Organization has polled voters in every presidential election since 1936 and erred badly only once (1948). • Rasmussen Reports

13. The Gallup Poll predicted that Dewey would defeat Truman in the 1948 presidential election. A Gallup poll a few weeks prior showed Dewey with a seemingly insurmountable lead, leading the Chicago Tribune to print the wrong result. Here, Truman holds up the Chicago Tribune with the headline “Dewey Defeats Truman” after his victory.

14. Problems with Polls • Increasing refusal to participate in telephone polls. • Polled individuals unfamiliar with issues. • Dishonesty by respondents. • Poorly worded questions and poor question order. • Differently worded questions yield different answers. • Non-opinions. • This occurs when respondent is uninformed and their response can’t be considered valid.

15. Influence of Public Opinion on Policy • What impact does public opinion have on government policies? • There is disagreement over the impact it should have. • Answer varies, most studies show that public opinion influences policymakers. Limits on Public Influence • Inconsistency in citizens’ policy preferences. • Citizens’ lack of understanding issues. • Citizens need some understanding of issues in order to influence opinion.

16. Public Opinion and the Boundaries of Action • Public opinion places boundaries on the actions of political leaders. • V.O. Key – “politicians must operate within the limits of what the public deems reasonable and acceptable.” • The greater the public involvement the more likely politicians will respond. • Leaders use discretion when responding to public opinion. • In many cases, the public is divided on an issue. • Leaders can’t satisfy both sides, so they usually take the side of their party. • Some feel policies reflect the preferences of leaders more than citizens.