Feasibility to include forest fire emission rates in operational air quality model

1. Environnement EnvironmentCanada Canada Feasibility to include forest fire emission rates in operational air quality model Jacques Rousseau& Dr David Lavoué Team members : Gilles Morneau Nedka Pentcheva Montréal, July 7, 2002 AQRB project,Mid-term Review, October 26, 2004

2. Short term objectives Feasibility to include forest fire emission rate in air quality model : A case study Long term objectives Integrate in real time emission rates from forest fire with a dynamic model in order to simulate adequately wildfire in air quality model to improve air quality forecast on daily basis

3. Methodology Case study : Major wild forest fires over northern Quebec region from June 28 to July 15, 2002 Data acquisition - 133 different sites of forest fire identify during the event - Hourly PM2.5 data : 47 Can. & 24 USA stations Process - Build hourly PM2.5emission rate for all forest fire sites - 23 986 entry of emission rate in CHRONOS model - Run CHRONOS with and without forest fire emission rate Results - Output Model comparison with PM2.5observations

4. Quebec Fires in 2002 July 1 Emissions(X) = A x (ß x B) x EF(X)

5. Hourly Area Burned sigmoidal growth diurnal variability Area burned (hectares) Elapsed time since ignition (hours)

6. Hourly PM2.5 Emissions Average and constant fuel consumption amount by ecoregion July 9 Max ~ 3000 t of PM2.5 /hour Total = 355 Gg of PM2.5

7. July 6, 2002 CHRONOS control run 16Z July 6 CHRONOS with forest fire emission Terra MODIS 1546-1553 UTC (NASA) (µg/m3)

8. 3000 2000 1000 Sfc (m) Cross section from Toronto to Ottawa (µg/m3)

9. July 7, 2002 CHRONOS control run 16Z July 6 CHRONOS with forest fire emission Terra MODIS 1629-1641 UTC (NASA) (µg/m3)

10. (µg/m3)

11. July 8, 2002 CHRONOS control run 16Z July 8 (µg/m3) CHRONOS with forest fire emission Terra MODIS 1629-1641 UTC (NASA)

12. 3000 2000 1000 Sfc (m) Cross section Maine - New Brunswick (West to East)

13. Results Forest fire emission - Model control Data Observations - Model control Improvement = x 100 • Ontario 20% • Québec 30% • Maritimes 25% • U.S.A. 25% • Test others vertical distribution of emission rate at fire sites • Adequacy of PM2.5 dispersion in GEM-CHRONOS • Study PM2.5deposition mechanism in CHRONOS

14. Improvement of the Emissions • implement Canadian FWI and FBP systems to determine hourly fuel consumption and rate of spread • weather records from single site in fire region • gridded fire behavior with GEM

15. Hourly Fuel Consumption fuel consumption variability with hourly FWI and FBP systems Average for central QC July June

16. Hourly PM2.5 Emissions 7 July New max ~ 3500 t of PM2.5 /hour + 30 % New total = 370 Gg of PM2.5

17. Future Work • Create database of different emission rates based on different type of forest fires and vegetation over Canada and USA • Develop protocol for real-time data acquisition of wildfire events • Develop a tool to transform forest fire data into hourly emission rates with dynamic model • Develop a tool to integrate field emission rates from forest fire into CHRONOS model • Validation of the whole process with cases studies • Reporting the results