Balance of Payments Adjustments

1. International Economics Chapter 8 Balance of Payments Adjustments

2. Chapter 8 Balance of Payments Adjustments • 8.1 Elasticities Approach • 8.2 Multiplier Approach • 8.3 Absorption Approach • 8.4 Monetary Approach

3. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • As a traditional approach to the balance of payments, elasticities approach assumes that capital flows occur only as a means of financing current account transactions. • Derivation of the Demand for Foreign Exchange: • The quantity of a currency demanded in the foreign exchange market is derived from the country’s demand for imports.

4. 8.1 Elasticities Approach China’s Import Demand Curve and the Demand for dollar

5. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • Elasticity of Import Demand and the Elasticity of Foreign Exchange Demand.

6. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • Derivation of the Supply of Foreign Exchange • The supply of foreign exchange to a country results from its exports of goods and services.

7. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • Elasticity of Export Supply and the Elasticity of Foreign Exchange Supply

8. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • The elasticities approach centers on changes in the prices of goods and services as the determinant of a country’s balance of payments and the exchange value of its currency. a change in the exchange rate a change in the exchange rate a change in the exchange rate the domestic currency price of goods and services the quantity of foreign exchange country’s balance of payments and exchange value the quantity of goods and services

9. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • The Current Account Deficit

10. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • The Role of Elasticity • The elasticities of the supply of and demand for foreign exchange are fundamental determinants of adjustment to a balance-of-payments deficit.

11. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • The Marshall-Lerner Condition • The Marshall-Lerner condition specifies the necessary condition for a positive effect of depreciation of domestic currency on the balance of payments.

12. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • Assumption • Capital flows occur only as a means of financing current account transactions. • Trade balance exclusively represents the current account.

13. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • CA in domestic currency: • Derivate it with e: • Initial CA in equilibrium: • Then: • Rearrange it: • Finally: ( , )

14. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • A depreciation to improve CA: • So: • Marshall-Lerner condition states that a depreciation of domestic currency can improve a country’s balance of payments only when the sum of the demand elasticity of exports and the demand elasticity of imports exceeds unity.

15. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • J-Curve Effect • A depreciation of the domestic currency is unlikely to immediately improve a country’s balance-of-payments deficit. It is even possible that the depreciation could cause a country’s balance of payments to worsen before it improves.

16. 8.1 Elasticities Approach • Reasons for J-Curve Effect: • Recognition lags of changing competitive conditions; • Decision lags in forming new business connections and placing new orders; • Delivery lags between the time new orders are placed and their impact on trade and payment flows is felt; • Replacement lags in using up inventories and wearing out existing machinery before placing new orders; • Production lags involved in increasing the output of commodities for which demand has increased.

17. Chapter 8 Balance of Payments Adjustments • 8.1 Elasticities Approach • 8.2 Multiplier Approach • 8.3 Absorption Approach • 8.4 Monetary Approach

18. 8.2 Multiplier Approach • The multiplier approach is a modified and extended version of the elasticity analysis. • The exchange rate is assumed fixed. The theory is suitable to analyze the adjustment process under a pegged regime. • The only possibility for BP adjustment in this model is by changes in national income.

19. 8.2 Multiplier Approach • Assumptions • Underemployed resources; • Rigidity of all prices; • Absence of capital mobility; • All exports are made out of current output.

20. 8.2 Multiplier Approach • National income: • Thus:

21. 8.2 Multiplier Approach • An expansionary fiscal policy (a rise in G0), an expansionary monetary policy (a rise in I0 resulting from lower interest rate), or added exports (a rise in X0) can increase national income. • While a contractionary fiscal policy, a contractionary monetary policy or reduced exports will decrease national income.

22. 8.2 Multiplier Approach • An expansionary fiscal policy or an expansionary monetary policy can worsen a country’s current account (and then its balance of payments). • While a contractionary fiscal policy or monetary policy will improve its balance of payments.

23. 8.2 Multiplier Approach • Added exports can improve a country’s current account (then its balance of payments). • While reduced exports will worsen its balance of payments.

24. 8.2 Multiplier Approach • In conclusion, when an economy has underemployed resources, fiscal policy, monetary policy and trade policies can be used for adjusting its balance of payments. • Contractionary fiscal or monetary policy can improve the balance of payments but at the cost of a decrease in national output. • Added exports resulting from export-encouraging policies will improve the balance of payments and meanwhile, increase national income.

25. Chapter 8 Balance of Payments Adjustments • 8.1 Elasticities Approach • 8.2 Multiplier Approach • 8.3 Absorption Approach • 8.4 Monetary Approach

26. 8.3 Absorption Approach • The absorption approach assumes that prices remain constant and emphasizes changes in real domestic income. • Hence, the absorption approach is a real-income theory of the balance of payments.

27. 8.3 Absorption Approach • Absorption: • National income: • Current account: => • Thus • It shows whether a currency depreciation can improve the current account (then the balance of payments) depends on its effect on national income and on domestic absorption.

28. 8.3 Absorption Approach • The effect of depreciation on absorption can be divided into two parts: • The induced effect of income changes resulting from depreciation on absorption: • The direct effect of depreciation on absorption: • Therefore, the effects of depreciation on the current account: • the income effect: • the absorption effect:

29. 8.3 Absorption Approach • Effects of Depreciation on National Income • On the supply side, an effective depreciation requires idle resourcesin the economy. • On the demand side, an effective depreciation requires the Marshall-Lerner conditionto be met. • From the perspective of government’s macroeconomic regulation, an effective depreciation requires loosening protective or restrictive trade polices.

30. 8.3 Absorption Approach • Direct Effects of Depreciation on Absorption • Real cash balance effect require Ms↓to guarantee e↑ e↑ P↑ cash balance↓ expenditure↓ C↓ withdraw financial assets Price of financial assets↓ C↓, I↓ r↑

31. 8.3 Absorption Approach • Income redistribution effect e↑ e↑ P↑ Income redistribution from wage earners to profit earners profit earners have lower MPC C↓

32. 8.3 Absorption Approach • Taxation effect Require G↓/ T↑ to guarantee e↑ e↑ Nominal Y↑ Enter higher taxation levels expenditure↓ C↓

33. 8.3 Absorption Approach • In conclusion, the absorption approach proposes that depreciation can be effective in improving the balance of payments when • the economy has idle resources; • the economy meets the Marshall-Lerner condition; • the government fulfills contractionary fiscal or monetary policy along with depreciation.

34. Chapter 8 Balance of Payments Adjustments • 8.1 Elasticities Approach • 8.2 Multiplier Approach • 8.3 Absorption Approach • 8.4 Monetary Approach

35. 8.4 Monetary Approach • Leaning with or against the Wind • If a central bank intervenes to support or speed along the current trend in the value of its country’s currency in the foreign exchange market, then economists say that its interventions are leaning with the wind. • In contrast, a central bank’s interventions intended to halt or reverse a recent trend in the value of its country’s currency are leaning against the wind.

36. 8.4 Monetary Approach • Foreign Exchange Intervention • Central banks buy or sell financial assets denominated in foreign currencies in an effort to influence exchange rates. • Sterilization of Intervention • A central bank sterilizes foreign exchange interventions when it buys or sells domestic assets in sufficient quantities to prevent the interventions from influencing the domestic money stock. • monetary base = domestic credit + foreign exchange reserves • Sterilization of the sale of foreign exchange reserves requires an equally-sized expansion of domestic credit.

37. 8.4 Monetary Approach • Monetary Equilibrium Condition • In equilibrium, the actual money stock equals the quantity of money demanded. Md=kPy Md=keP*y Ms=Md m(D+F)=keP*y Ms=m(D+F)

38. 8.4 Monetary Approach • Fixed Exchange Rate and A Change in Domestic Credit • If the central bank increases domestic credit through an open market purchase of securities, the open market purchase causes the country’s money stock to rise. • m(D’+F)>keP*y • Under a fixed exchange rate arrangement, the country’s monetary authorities must sell foreign exchange reserves to meet the demand for foreign currency. As a result, foreign exchange reserves decline, while the spot exchange rate remains constant. • Under a fixed exchange rate arrangement, an increase in domestic credit generates BP deficit, while a decrease in domestic credit results in BP surplus.

39. 8.4 Monetary Approach • Fixed Exchange Rate and A Change in Md • Suppose that there is an increase in either the foreign price level or real income, causing an increase in the quantity of money demanded. • m(D+F)<ke(P*y)’ • To prevent the domestic currency from appreciating, the domestic monetary authorities must increase the quantity of money supplied so that it equals the quantity of money demanded. • A rise in either the foreign price level or domestic real income results in BP surplus. Likewise, a decline in either the foreign price level or domestic real income results in BP deficit.

40. 8.4 Monetary Approach • Flexible Exchange Rate and A Change in Domestic Credit • Suppose the domestic central bank increases domestic credit through a purchase of securities, causing domestic money stock to rise. • m(D’+F)>keP*y • As households increase their expenditures on foreign goods and services, the domestic currency depreciates and BP keeps in equilibrium. • Under a flexible exchange rate arrangement, an increase in domestic credit results in a depreciation of the domestic currency, while a decline in domestic credit results in an appreciation of the domestic currency.

41. 8.4 Monetary Approach • Flexible-Exchange-Rate and A Change in Md • If the foreign price level or domestic real income increases, causing an increase in the quantity of money demanded. • m(D+F)<ke(P*y)’ • The decrease in demand for foreign goods and services causes the domestic currency to appreciate and BP keeps in equilibrium. • Under a flexible exchange rate arrangement, an increase in the foreign price level or domestic real income results in an appreciation of the domestic currency. In contrast, a decline in the foreign price level or domestic real income results in a depreciation of the domestic currency.