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Maryland National Capital Building Industry Association. The Washington Economy in 2005 and Beyond. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University. May 17, 2005. The Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV MSA (1993).

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Maryland National Capital

Building Industry Association

The WashingtonEconomy in2005 and Beyond

Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

May 17, 2005


The Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV MSA (1993)

Frederick

Jefferson

Montgomery

Clarke

Loudoun

Warren

District of

Columbia

Arl.

Fairfax

Alex.

Prince

George’s

Fauquier

Prince

William

Calvert

Charles

Stafford

Spotsylvania


Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2010Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change)

%

NV

MSA

SM

DC


The Washington Area

Economy is Different


%

GDP/GRP Trends

Washington

U.S.


Metro Comparisons Job Change Last Five Years15 Largest Metro Areas

Thousands

WASHINGTON


15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Mar 2004 – Mar 2005

Thousands

Washington +70,900


15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateMarch 2005

%

U.S.

5.4%

3.6

Data not seasonally adjusted


Why Is The Washington Area

Economy Different ?


Structure of the Greater Washington Economy

Non-Local

Business

10%

Other Federal

19.4 %

Federal

34.5%

Procurement

15.0%

Local

Business

42%

Assn 2.5%

Hosp. 2.5%

Other 3.5%

Int’l 5%


Washington Area Core Industries Outlook


Total Federal Spending

Washington Metro Area

$ Billions

2004 Est. =

$106.4 B


Federal Spending by Type1983 - 2003

Billions Current $

Procurement

Wages & Salaries

All Other


Annual Change in

Federal Procurement Spending

Washington Metro Area

$ Billions

6.1

2004 Est.

+ $5.36B


2002-2003 Federal Procurement Spending by Sub-state Area($$ in Billions)

$ Billions

02 03

+ 4.7% +12.7% +26.9%


Job Growth in the Washington Area


Average = 52,000/Year

Washington Metro Annual Job Change: 1980 - 2004

64,200

Year


Share of Washington Area Jobs1970-2005

No. Virginia

% of Regional Jobs

Sub MD

District

Year


1990 - 2004 Share of Job Growth By Sector U.S. vs PMSA

%


Mar 04 – Mar 05 Job Change By Sector MSA(000s)

Total = 70,900

(Ranked by Size of Sector)


Office-Using Employment In the Washington MSA by Sub-state Area(% private sector)


Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)

(1) 1994-2004


Projected Office Space Requirements in the Washington Area, 2004-2007(in millions of sq ft)

* Actual absorption excluding sub-lease space (Delta Associates)


Housing Price IndexWashington PMSA4th Quarter Each Year

1995

Q1=100

1997-2004

= 105.0%

1990-1997

=+3.8%

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


% of Houses Sold by Price Range1999 vs. 2004Washington MSA

All Units

Percent

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis


Housing Trends Last 5 Years1999 - 2004

  • Metro Area average sales price has increased from $205,900 to $371,800, +80.6% (all types)

  • Total unit annual sales have increased from 78,100 to 120,300

  • Average time on the market has declined from 86 days to 28 days

  • Total sales volume has increased from $16.1 Billion to $44.7 Billion (+ 178%)


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