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Global Economy, the BRICs and Beyond

Global Economy, the BRICs and Beyond. Anna Stupnytska Global Macro and Markets Team Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research Goldman Sachs. May 2010. Overview. Outlook for the world economy post crisis The role of Emerging Markets (EM) in the recovery

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Global Economy, the BRICs and Beyond

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  1. Global Economy, the BRICs and Beyond Anna StupnytskaGlobal Macro and Markets Team Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research Goldman Sachs May 2010

  2. Overview • Outlook for the world economy post crisis • The role of Emerging Markets (EM) in the recovery • The rise of the BRICs (and others) and the implications for consumption patterns, travel and tourism

  3. Global Growth Above Trend, Driven by EM Source: GS Global ECS Research

  4. Domestic Demand Forecasts—Welcome to the Age of EM Consumer Source: GS Global ECS Research

  5. Benign Inflation Outlook Source: GS Global ECS Research

  6. Global Leading Indicator vs Industrial Production Source: GS Global ECS Research

  7. EM and DM Rebound in Industrial Production Post Crisis Source: GS Global ECS Research

  8. Recent Trend in Real Retail Sales Source: GS Global ECS Research

  9. Domestic Demand and Growth Contributions, Last Decade Source: GS Global ECS Research

  10. Consumption Contributions *Calculated from consumer expenditure for India, US, Euroland. Brazil and Russia use private consumption and China uses household consumption. Annual averages 2004-2008, GS forecasts 2009-2010. Source: GS Global ECS Research

  11. The Largest Economies Today Source: GS Global ECS Research

  12. Winners of the Past Decade Source: GS Global ECS Research

  13. The Largest Economies in 2050 Source: GS Global ECS Research

  14. The Largest Economies in 2050 Source: GS Global ECS Research

  15. Wealth in 2008 Source: GS Global ECS Research

  16. Wealth in 2050 Source: GS Global ECS Research

  17. Peak Growth in the World Middle Class Still Ahead Source: GS Global ECS Research

  18. Where Does the Global Middle Class Live? Source: GS Global ECS Research

  19. Consumption Will Become More Discretionary Source: GS Global ECS Research

  20. BRICs Share of Global Oil Demand Source: GS Global ECS Research

  21. BRICs & N-11 2009 Growth Environment Score (GES) Source: GS Global ECS Research

  22. Summary • Global growth for 2010 and 2011 above trend, driven by EM • BRICs and other EM countries are emerging from the crisis better than developed economies • By 2050 BRICs could become the largest economies, together with the US • BRICs influence in key product markets has already been remarkable but is set to become even more dramatic • This presents opportunities and challenges for us all

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