ECO and the Green Deal

1. ECO and the Green Deal Progress to date; the immediate outlook; and what needs to happen www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

2. Progress to date And immediate outlook following proposed cuts to the Energy Company Obligation www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

3. Major measures delivered by Green Deal Finance, Cashback and ECO • These slides focus predominantly on ‘major measures’; i.e. those that constitute most of the work carried out. These are: • Efficient boilers • Cavity wall insulation (CWI) • Loft insulation (LI) • Solid wall insulation (SWI) • Most of the following slides show month by month delivery of the above measures, from January 2013 to March 2014. www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

4. Major measures delivered by Green Deal Finance, Cashback and ECO www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

5. Programme delivery in historical perspective – about which more later… Green Deal and ECO: much momentum lost, and set to worsen this financial year due to cuts www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

6. Green Deal Finance and Cashback Progress to date www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

7. Major measures delivered by Green Deal finance • Worth noting that other measures have featured strongly in Green Deal Finance: • Heating controls • Solar photovoltaics • However, from here, we stick to the original four major measures… www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

8. Major measures delivered by Green Deal finance End of June: “Green Deal mired in IT and legal problems” It looks as if interest has been declining… End of January 2013: Government-backed marketing campaign launches www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

9. Major measures delivered by Green Deal Cashback Mid-February: SWI cashback increased from £650 to £4,000; back-dated to mid-December 2013 www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

10. Energy Company Obligation (ECO) Progress to date and immediate outlook www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

11. Progress to date under ECO • Next slides examine ECO as a whole, and then its constituent parts: • Carbon Emissions Reduction Obligation (CERO) • Carbon Saving Communities Obligation (CSCO) • Home Heating Cost Reduction Obligation (HHCRO) • Latest official data from DECC and Ofgem are used (to March 2014). Post March 2014, we look at the impact of changes proposed in the current ECO consultation, and compare this with what would have happened were the ECO left unchanged www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

12. Major measures delivered by ECO – without changes www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

13. Major measures delivered by ECO – consultation changes www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

14. Major measures delivered by CERO – without changes CERO activity has ramped up to the level it would need, approximately, to sustain in order to meet its original March 2015 target www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

15. Major measures delivered by CERO – consultation changes The level of activity in the first quarter of 2014 increased dramatically to take advantage of the ‘levelisation uplifts’ proposed by the consultation.This compounds the reduction of CERO targets and means very little will occur until at least April 2015 www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

16. Major measures delivered by CSCO – without changes www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

17. Major measures delivered by CSCO – consultation changes CSCO is the only part of ECO that will see any significant level of activity between now and March 2015 www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

18. Major measures delivered by HHCRO HHCRO well ahead of schedule to meet targets. This is why it starts to wind down level of activity Mostly boiler replacements, averaging 1.2 measures per household helped www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

19. Relative contributions to date From Green Deal Finance, Cashback and Energy Company Obligation – placed into longer term context of previous programmes www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

20. Relative contributions: Green Deal Finance… www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

21. …plus Green Deal Cashback… www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

22. …plus ECO. www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

23. Delivery since 2000: loft insulation An 87% drop in loft insulations, even though 7.5 million lofts remain under-insulated www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

24. Delivery since 2000: cavity wall insulation A 46% drop in cavity wall insulations, even though over 5 million homes could still benefit www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

25. Delivery since 2000: boilers EEC-2 was an important facilitator in the transition to condensing boilers The incentive structure under HHCRO to date has meant that boilers have been the simplest way of achieving its target www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

26. Delivery since 2000: solid wall insulation Long project set-up time under CESP led to spike to reach target in its last year Momentum being lost; 8 million untreated solid wall homes remain www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

27. All major measures across the programmes Drifting further away from what is needed, and what is possible www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

28. What needs to happen Meeting Carbon Budgets and dealing with fuel poverty www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

29. On reducing CO2 emissions • To meet carbon budgets, the Committee on Climate Change requires all remaining cavities and lofts to be insulated by 2015, and 2.2 million solid walls to be insulated by 2022* • * 2013 Progress Report to Parliament, Chapter 3, Section 3 www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

30. Monthly install rates to meet carbon budgets Monthly rates needed to meet carbon budgets (to end 2015 for LI and CWI, and to end 2022 for SWI) Installation rates likely as a result of the cuts proposed; new GD Home Improvement Fund could drive an additional 2,000 SWIs per month. But this would only make up 15% of the carbon savings lost to the ECO cuts Installation rates seen under CERT, CESP and Warm Front Without ECO cuts and without GD Home Improvement Fund, these monthly rates would have been expected to March 2015 Installation rates seen under ECO and Green Deal so far www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

31. On tackling fuel poverty • The Energy Bill Revolution is calling for all low-income homes to be upgraded to an Energy Performance Certificate rating of Band C by 2025 – that means 5.9 million homes from now www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

32. On tackling fuel poverty • Achieving Band C by 2025 means: • Deep retrofits • Wide range of energy efficiency improvements • Doing so at an ambitious, but achievable rate www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

33. Depth of retrofit in low income households www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

34. Depth of retrofit in low income households • ECO is very much a single measure programme, with low income households supported receiving on average 1.2 measures each • Deeper retrofits are needed, averaging 3.1 measures per low income household supported, if Band C is to be met • Also, the range of measures ECO delivers is too narrow… www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

35. Composition of retrofit in low income households www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

36. Composition of retrofit in low income households • As could be seen, low income households not only need deeper retrofits, but also require a much wider mix of measures to meet Band C • See our ‘Ending Cold Homes’ report* for Consumer Futures (now Citizens Advice) • *Click cover to open the report on the ACE website www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

37. Reaching low income households Without cuts, CERO would have helped considerably more low income households in the next 12 months. Were the ECO to continue until 2022, 640,000 fuel poor households would receive help. Helping all low income households to reach an EPC rating of C by 2025 doesn’t require that many more low income homes to be reached. But it would help many more fuel poor households (3.1m to 2025), and provide more lasting support through deeper retrofits We estimate 460,000 low income households helped in Britain in first 15 months of ECO, of which 98,000 in fuel poverty ECO set to continue at a similar rate to March 2015. Lower number of low income households that will be helped by HHCRO and CERO likely to be offset by catch-up necessary for CSCO www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

38. Reaching low income households • So, the ECO supply chain is almost going into enough low income homes, compared to the number that need to be reached to reach Band C by 2025; this is encouraging, however: • It is currently an opportunity missed, because low income households are not receiving the depth or the range of support necessary to fuel poverty proof their homes www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

39. Conclusions • Green Deal Finance and Cashback have contributed little to retrofits, compared to ECO. ECO is delivering much less than previous programmes • To cut carbon emissions at scale and speed required and to end fuel poverty more capital investment is needed to achieve deep retrofits. • The Energy Bill Revolution is calling for: • Home energy efficiency to be made a UK infrastructure priority • 2 million low income homes given free measures to bring them up to EPC Band C by 2020 and all low income homes brought up to EPC C by 2025 • Low interest loans for able to pay • Use carbon revenue to provide long term funding www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org

40. About the Energy Bill Revolution • The Energy Bill Revolution is an alliance of 180 charities and businesses campaigning to end fuel poverty by making home energy efficiency a UK priority infrastructure investment. They are calling for all low income homes to be made highly energy efficient and for carbon tax revenue to be used to provide long term funding. • For queries, contact Ed Matthew, Director at ed.matthew@e3g.org www.ukace.org www.energybillrevolution.org

41. About the Association for the Conservation of Energy • The Association for the Conservation of Energywas formed in 1981 by a number of major companies active within the energy conservation industry. Our aim is to encourage a positive national awareness of the need for and benefits of energy conservation, to help establish a sensible and consistent national policy and programme, and to increase investment in all appropriate energy saving measures. • ACE Research is an independently funded and internationally respected research unit which has consistently delivered ground-breaking policy research. Its work ensures that ACE’s campaigns and advocacy are always founded on, and guided by, the best available evidence and insight. • For queries, contact Pedro Guertler, Head of Research at pedro@ukace.org www.ukace.orgwww.energybillrevolution.org