1 / 34

Forest Fires and Climate Change in Canada

Forest Fires and Climate Change in Canada. Canadian Fire Statistics. Incomplete prior to 1970 Currently - average of 9000 fires a year burn 2.6 million ha Area burned is highly episodic 0.4 to 7.6 million ha Lightning fires 35% of total fires represent 85% of area burned Fire size

hugh
Download Presentation

Forest Fires and Climate Change in Canada

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Forest Fires and Climate Change in Canada

  2. Canadian Fire Statistics • Incomplete prior to 1970 • Currently - average of 9000 fires a year burn 2.6 million ha • Area burned is highly episodic • 0.4 to 7.6 million ha • Lightning fires • 35% of total fires • represent 85% of area burned • Fire size • 3% of fires are >200 ha • represent 97% of area burned

  3. Large Fires in Alaska and Canada 1980-1999 Fire polygons kindly provided by Canadian Fire Agencies (Provinces, Territories and Parks Canada) and the state of Alaska

  4. Forest Fires – 4 Key Factors • Fuel - loading, moisture, structure etc. • Ignition - human and lightning • Weather - temperature, precipitation atmospheric moisture and wind; upper atmospheric conditions (blocking ridges) • Humans - land use, fragmentation, fire management etc.

  5. Fire and Carbon ~700 Pg carbon stored in the boreal forest ~30-35 % of the global terrestrial biosphere • Fire plays a major role in carbon dynamics: it can determine the magnitude of net biome productivity • 1) combustion: direct loss • 2) decomposition of fire-killed vegetation • 3) stand renewal: young successional stands have potential to be greater sinks than mature stagnant forests

  6. Climate Change Projections • GCMs project 1.4 – 5.80 C increase in global mean temperature by 2100 • Greatest increases will be at high latitudes, over land and winter/spring • Projected increases in extreme weather(e.g., heat waves, drought, floods, wind storms and ice storms) • Observed increases across west-central Canada and Siberia over past 40 years Observations above – summer temperature changes below 2080-2100

  7. Projected temperature changes vary considerably from year to year

  8. A smoking gun? • Area burned in Canada is strongly related to human-caused warming • Impacts of climate change are here already • A warmer future means more fire in Canada

  9. GCMs Seasonal Severity Rating

  10. Area Burned Projections Hadley –3xCO2 Canadian –3xCO2 Projections of area burned based on weather/fire danger relationships suggest a 75-120% increase in area burned by the end of this century according to the Canadian and Hadley models respectively

  11. Fire Occurrence Prediction • People-caused and lightning-caused fire occurrence • Models for Ontario suggest 25-100%increase in fire starts by 2090

  12. Fire and WeatherFeedbacks: potentially positive Fossil Fuel emissions: increase greenhouse gases Cause warmer conditions Weather becomes more conducive to fire: more fire Carbon released from more fire enhances greenhouse gases further

  13. Summary • Weather/Climate and fire are strongly linked • Fire activity is likely to increase significantly with climate change although the response will have large temporal and spatial variability • Integrated approaches will be required to adapt to climate-change altered fire activity in terms of social, economic and ecological policies and practices

  14. Collaborators/Partners • Universities – Arizona, Australian National University, Manitoba, Montana, Toronto and UQAM/UQAT • BC Ministry of Forests, Environment Canada, NRCan, Ontario MNR and US Forest Service, • GCTE & IGBP • Action Plan 2000, Climate Change Action Fund,NCE – SFMN, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, PERD

  15. Proxy data also indicate that the recent warming is likely unprecedented in at least the past millennium Source: IPCC(2001)

  16. Relative to 1961-90 average temperature Global surface temperatures are rising

  17. Fire Ecology • Boreal forests survive and even thrive in semi-regular high intensity fires • Removes competition • Prepares seedbed • Survival strategies - Cone serotiny, vegetative reproduction and bark thickness • Role of fire suppression –Smokey syndrome

  18. pessimist or optimist Climate change –

  19. Fire Issues • An average of $500 million spent by fire management agencies in Canada a year on direct fire fighting costs • Health and safety of Canadians • Property and timber losses due to fire • Balancing the positive and negative aspects of fire

  20. Fire and Climate Change Research – Purpose • Understand relationships between weather/climate and fire • Model future fire activity – fire weather, area burned, fire intensity/severity, fire season length etc. • Adaptation strategies for an altered fire regime due to climate change

  21. Outline • Fire background • Climate change • Impacts of climate change on fire activity • How do we cope?

  22. Fire and Climate Change Research – where are we? • Future fire weather – fire danger • Fire season length • Preliminary studies • Future area burned • Changes in fire intensity • Fire occurrence prediction • Level of protection studies • Adaptation plans

  23. Length of fire season CCC –3xCO2 Hadley –3xCO2 • Fire season length increases by 10-50 days over much of the boreal according to theCanadian and Hadley GCMs

  24. Potential Changes in Fire Intensity HFI Ratio 3x/1x CO2 0.0 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.4 0.4 - 0.6 0.6 - 0.8 0.8 - 1.0 1.0 - 1.2 1.2 - 1.4 1.4 - 1.6 1.6 - 1.8 1.8 - 2.0 2.0 - 3.0 3.0 + No fuel RCM - Ratio 3xCO2/1xCO2 Central Saskatchewan This will influence the type of fire (more crowning), reduce suppression effectiveness, and may lead to larger sized fires.

  25. What will the future be like? • Longer fire seasons • More area burned • More intense fires • More ignitions – human and lightning-caused

  26. Fire and Climate Change Research – where we are going • Better estimates of future area burned and GHG emissions • Fire Occurrence prediction – lightning and human-caused • Interactions with other disturbances • Understanding the effects of atmospheric and oceanic circulations on fire activity • Understanding processes & interactions using historical data

  27. Health and safety of Canadians through improved fire weather and fire behaviour systems Options/strategic plans for landscape management Adaptation options for fire management agencies with respect to climate change altered fire regimes Fire season forecasts Input into decisions for Kyoto – are our forests carbon sinks or sources? So What!

  28. We are living in a flammable forest Some Recent Incidents • Kelowna/Barriere, BC (2003) • Hillcrest/Blairmore, AB (2003) • Turtle Lake, SK (2002) • Chisholm, AB (2001) • Burwash Landing, YK (1999) • La Ronge, SK (1999) • Beardmore, ON (1999) • Shelburne County, NS (1999) • Badger, NF (1999) • Salmon Arm, BC (1998) • Swan Hills, AB (1998) • Granum, AB (1997) • Timmins, ON (1997) • Ft. Norman, NT (1995) • N&S Manitoba (1989)

  29. How do we cope with more fire? • Greater risk – 1) Increased fire activity 2)More Canadians live and work in the wildland urban interface • More evacuations • Smoke issues – Health and transportation

  30. spruce aspen Adaptation Strategies • Fire exclusion not an option in many regions • Landscape fuels management • Fuel conversion • Fuel reduction • Fuel isolation • “FireSmart” landscapes • Strategically located firebreaks • Education, prevention • Emergency planning • Level of protection studies

  31. Sustainable Forest Management Future burn rate is lower than past burn rate:a real substitution is expectable. • Future area burned may be less than historical area burned in some regions • Natural Disturbance based Forest management could be used to recreate the forest age structure of fire-controlled pre-industrial landscapes Yield constraints

  32. Fire and Kyoto • Fires contribute to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere • Currently our forests are a small sink of carbon or even a source of carbon due primarily to disturbances • If Canada includes forest management(Art. 3.4 – managed forests) then we will have to account for disturbances • Fire management protects values at risk – not carbon

  33. Landscape Management - A Balancing Act • How much fire does the forest need? • New systems and models are needed to balance multiple objectives far a landscape with climate change altered disturbances( fire, insects, wind etc.) • Biodiversity (including Habitat) • Harvesting, exploration etc. • Tourism & Recreation • Carbon?

  34. ICFME Fire Video Clip

More Related