Historical Overview of Severe Convective Storms Research According to Chuck A. Doswell III

1. Historical Overview of Severe Convective Storms ResearchAccording to Chuck A. Doswell III Presented to you by: Elizabeth Polito (part 1) & Jennifer Robbins (part 2) Meteorology 503, Dr. Monteverdi Spring 2007

2. Talk Overview • Part I: Elizabeth • Introduction • Pre-Thunderstorm Project history • The Thunderstorm Project • Part II: Jennifer

3. Introduction • Three Themes in history of severe convective storms research • Forecasting - research interactions • Forecasting SCS intertwined with basic & applied research. • Special Field observing Campaigns • Bergeron’s triad • “Bergeron proposes that the most rapid progress in meteorological science is associated with simultaneous advances in observations, tools, and models.” Vilhelm Bjerknes

4. Pre-Thunderstorm Project Research • 18th Century • Benjamin Franklin • 19th Century • Espy-Redfield Controversy Benjamin Franklin James Pollard Espy William C. Redfield

5. Pre-Thunderstorm Project Research • 19th Century Cont. • John Park Finley • Alfred Wegener Alfred Wegener

6. Pre-Thunderstorm Project Research • Early 20th Century • Johannes Letzmann • Sir Charles W. B. Normand • Showalter and Fulks Carl-Gustaf Rossby

7. The Thunderstorm Project • Aircraft played huge role during WWII • Limited understanding of forecasting hazards due to deep convection. • Radar & in situ aircraft observations • Aircraft safety • Thunderstorm project mesonetworks

8. The Thunderstorm Project • Radar and in situ aircraft observations

9. The Thunderstorm Project • Aircraft safety

10. The Thunderstorm Project • Thunderstorm Project mesonetworks

11. The Development of Operational Severe Storms Forecasting(After the “Thunderstorm Project”) Morris Tepper & the USWB Mesonetwork • Idea of “pressure jump” • Important factor in squall lines • Primary mode for severe convective storms • Conceptually modeled as a “hydraulic jump” • Might create tornadoes as pressure jump lines intersected • Needed more data to validate ideas, so there came about the beginning of a mesonetwork of surface observation sites established in 1951 on the Great Plains • Outcome: Data was discarded after thorough analysis • Resulted in the mesonetwork opening doors to explore new ideas with non-operational scientific ideas

12. Formation of SELS Severe Local Storms Unit: • Air Force Mandated a tornado forecasting program after Tinker Air Force Base, OK Tornado • Ernest Fawbush & Robert Miller • Job: Methods to forecast severe weather • Focus: Tornadoes • Known for first US tornado forecast since J.P. Finley; March 25, 1948 • Little known about severe convective storms, but interest regained • 1952: SELS was created after USWB reconsidered its policy • Several research forecasters working with regular forecast team • Research Aircraft: • Tornado Research Airplane, TRAP • Instrumented P-38 aircraft

13. Historical Moments: Captain Miller and Colonel Fawbush • Captain Miller and Colonel Fawbush reading a Post article • FOR DILIGENT RESEARCH... in the severe storm areas of the Great Plains states, Lt. Col. Ernest J. Fawbush and Maj. Robert C. Miller, Tinker Weather officers, were presented commendation medals and citations by Col. A. L. Haig, Base Executive, during a special review, January 16, 1953 Source: www.nssl.noaa.gov/GoldenAnniversary

14. T. Fujita’s Early U.S. Research • Tetsuya Fujita used limited information innovatively • Interested in the data from the Midwest mesonetwork • Participated in data analysis • Created analytical tools • Techniques remain today • Help show how Tepper’s “pressure jump” model was inappropriate, actually convective outflows • Film images, still and moving picture film • Fargo Tornado, 1957 • Terminology: “wall” “tail” An example of an analysis by Fujita Of Midwest Mesonetwork data, 1956

15. ~Looking Back: T. Fujita~ Source:University of Chicago, www-news.uchicago.edu

16. The National Severe Storms Project • Rift between those in research and in forecasting • 1958: Move to different floors; dispute on forecasting • Led to departure of several researchers to other organizations • Ending up in Norman, OK • After the move---1963: NSSP Spring Field Observing Campaign • Keith Browning • Weather Radar Labatory (WRL) • Dissertation studies: severe storm in Wokingham, England and Oklahoma storms (May 26, 1963) • Established concept of what is known as supercell convection using conceptual models deduced from radar evidence • Combined techniques with that of Fujita to gain understanding of internal structure/evolution of severe thunderstorms

17. The 1970’s Revolution • Revolution of the scientific understanding of severe convective storms • Rapid advances with obs, tools and models advancing together • First Component: • Focus on NSSL research in 1970 was on the development of Doppler Radar • Helped in diagnosing severe storm structure/evolution • Union City tornadic storm on May 24, 1973, one of the most intensely studied storms in history to date • Influential in showcasing the potential in Doppler capability in operational severe storm and tornado warnings • Led to the implementation of Doppler capability in the Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD); later known as WSR-88D radar system that is used today Source: www.spc.noaa.gov/ faq/tornado/doppler.gif Second component in the Revolution: Development of sufficient computer power to implement 3-D numerical cloud models

18. Scientific Storm Chasing • Third component: • Done earlier in history but not in a scientific organized manner • 1972: Tornado Intercept Project • Goal: film tornado debris clouds in order to det. Tornadic windspeeds using photogrammetry • Post-storm surveys • Mobile data collection, following storms in progress--- where, intensity, what time--- help position events in a storm-relative framework • Research Projects and Experiments • National Hail Research Exp. • Alberta Hail Project • Techniques Development Unit • Windstorm research Original staff of Techniques Development Unit

19. Influenced Future Storm Chasing!!! :o)