Is Soft OR Sufficient to Inform Helicopter Operations in the Australian Defence Force

1. OR Methods we use, along with some cool pictures, that’ll hopefully distract everyone from the fact that I don’t know anything about soft OR… Is Soft OR Sufficient to Inform Helicopter Operations in the Australian Defence Force Arvind Chandran Defence Science and Technology Organisation

2. DSTO OR Support to the ADF • Provides an UNDERSTANDING of CAPABILITY • What systems to obtain • How to use those systems DSTO OR Support to FAA and 16 Avn Brigade • To DEVELOP, EXPLORE and ANALYSE mission tactics • ASuW, ASW, maritime support, SAR • Reconnaissance, Attack, AMO

3. How has DSTO provided OR support? • Mathematical Modelling of systems • Spreadsheet analysis / statistics • Simulation Issues with using Hard OR techniques • Costs – both in time and money • Difficult to define and scope the problem Can SOFT OR methods offer sufficient insights and add value to operational problems?

4. Flight Path Waypoint Threat Zone An Example Mission Air-Mobile Operation in a high-threat environment Disembarkation Embarkation

5. The Air-Mobile Mission • Air-Mobile Team: 2 x ARH + 4 x MRH 90 • Transit over terrain, collecting troops from PZ • Flies series of waypoints to LZ • Air Mobile Team then returns to FOB • Rugged Terrain, MANPADs, small-arms threats MOEs: Survivability, threat detection capability, optimal altitudes, speeds, flight paths for safety

6. What do Operators / Military Stakeholders Want from OR? • To enhance mission effectiveness • Defining COI • Modelling the mission • Analysing the merits of different options • Recommendations / outcomes / refinement

7. A Well-Defined Problem • An understanding of the critical operational issue • Political, social, economic and ethical context • Scenario context (environment, allies, threats) • What systems require adequate representation • What measures will assist in the evaluation • What are the constraints and assumptions Requires significant operator input

8. Realistic Modelling • Representing reality by extracting what is important • Effectively represent the operational aspects of the mission and environment • Strategic factors, human facts and system specifications need to be recognised. • Validity and reliability is critical Platform • Sensors • Eyesight • Radar • EWSP • EO/IR • Weapons • Guns • Rocket • PGM • Missiles • Tactics • Manoeuvre • Weapon • Sensor • CM • CM • Chaff • Flare • Obscurant • Comms • Radio • Datalink Environment

9. Classification Capability at Different Altitudes and Visibility Levels Detection Capability at Different Altitudes Likelihood of Survivability on Different Flight Paths Detailed and Relevant Analysis • Metrics need to be defined (MOEs) • Ability to detect a threat • Ability to classify a threat • Optimal altitudes and speeds for safe conduct • Optimal flight path for safe conduct

10. A Guarantee of Outcomes • Recommendations that offer a scientific justification • To improve survivability • To improve lethality • To improve endurance • To improve force co-ordination / interoperability • To improve overall mission effectiveness 12 5 km Break Turn or Dig & Pinch 10 2 In-Place Turn to Head-on attack 2 km Break Turn or TAC Turn Break Turn or TAC Turn Break Turn & Cover Break Turn & Cover Right Left Cross Turn & Cover In-Place Turn or Split Turn In-Place Turn or Split Turn 4 8 Split Turn 6

11. Hard OR Modelling Methods used by DSTO Analytical Method(Days-Weeks) Operational Question Operational Recommendations Low-Complexity Simulation Framework (Weeks-Months) High-Complexity Simulation Framework (Months-Years)

12. The Analytical Approach • Uses a series of simplified calculations to produce a quantitative solution • Most operational aspects are modelled • Helicopter motion • Flight path • Detection capabilities • Threat effects • Environmental factors

13. Low Fidelity Simulation • Models require some background knowledge • Models are representative of real systems with more assumptions • Simple rule-based decision making • Some V&V required – larger tolerance limits allowed • Some data collectable.

14. High Fidelity Simulation • Models can require large amounts of background knowledge • Models are more closely representative of real systems • Models of Operator Decision-Making are more detailed • Model V&V required – trials, experiments and exercises • Significant amounts of data collectable.

15. High Complexity Simulation Framework 2-D Visualisation 3-D Visualisation

16. Can Soft OR Add Value? • Qualitative or interpretive approaches • Used to define, scope and structure the problem • Require stakeholder input • Does not necessarily facilitate quantifiable analysis, cannot objectively compare CoA or guarantee outcomes • Outputs may correspond with hard OR approaches, however reliability & validity are limited

17. Soft OR Approaches Used in DSTO • Scenario planning – stepping through the scenario • Interactive planning – moving from a current to desired state • Decision trees – examining different CoAs • Experimentation – understanding future capabilities and identify gaps and requirements • SWOT / PEST analysis – planning and developing possible future scenarios and external drivers

18. Soft vs Hard OR Methods • In theatre, both soft and hard OR provide an improved understanding of the environment • At strategic level, including long-term planning significant uncertainty exists – soft OR assists to constrain the define the problem • At system level (sensor / weapon / airframe performance), soft OR offers little • At other levels, a mix of soft and hard OR methods can provide a comprehensive understanding

19. OR Approaches for Examining Different Levels of Military Warfare

20. Discussion and Conclusions • Approach depends on • Level of military warfare being analysed • Stakeholder’s requirements • Objectives • Can Soft OR methods add value at operational level? • Yes – in the absence of quantitative information • Mainly to define/understand problem – then use Hard OR techniques to solve… Combinations of Hard/Soft OR approaches are ideal

21. Questions?