Administrative Data at Statistics Canada – Current Uses and the Way Forward

1. Administrative Data at Statistics Canada – Current Uses and the Way Forward Wesley Yung and Peter Lys, Statistics Canada

2. Introduction Tax Data Goods and Service Tax (GST) Annual Tax Increased use of GST data Monthly Food Services Survey Quarterly Services Indicators Increased use of Annual Tax data Summary and Future Work Outline Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

3. Statistics Canada has a long history of using administrative data Direct tabulation – Trade statistics Frame maintenance – Business Register More recently, in business surveys program ‘Replacing’ survey data Take none estimation Introduction Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

4. Benefits realized Reduced collection costs Increased data quality Will discuss two recent methodologies that significantly increase use of tax data and some future uses Introduction, cont. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

5. Tax data collected by Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA) Monthly Goods and Services Tax (GST) data Annual tax (T1 and T2) data Goal of CRA is non-statistical, so very little verification of data performed Statistics Canada receives data from CRA and ‘processes’ the data Tax Data Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

6. A tax of 5% levied on all goods and services Depending on size of business, data remitted monthly, quarterly or annually Data provided to Statistics Canada 7 to 8 weeks after reference month Processing at Statistics Canada comprises outlier detection, imputation and calendarization Tax Data – GST Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

7. Database containing monthly sales for all businesses produced GST data used by three mission critical monthly surveys Survey data ‘replaced’ by GST data for a portion of ‘simple’ units and for take none Model needed to account for conceptual differences and timeliness issues Once replaced, modified GST data treated as survey data Tax Data – GST Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

8. Tax data – GST, cont. TS TA Survey Tax Data TN Note: Simples only Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

9. Two types: T1 – Unincorporated businesses (individuals) T2 – Incorporated businesses For T1, have electronic filers (~80% of universe) plus 2 variables for entire universe Produce calibrated estimates at aggregated levels For T2, Statistics Canada receives universe from CRA ‘Processing’ done at Statistics Canada (outlier detection, imputation, allocation to details…) Tax data – Annual tax Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

10. T2 data used in Unified Enterprise Survey (UES) The UES Consists of over 60 annual business surveys Uses common concepts and methodology T2 information linked to survey variables through COA (financial variables only) No model needed Tax data – Annual, cont Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

11. T2 information used to replace survey data for a portion of simple units and take none units Several different implementations 55% of sampled simples replaced 100% of simples replaced (financial data). Sample for non-financial data 100% of non-sampled simples replaced. Non-financial estimates calibrated Tax data – Annual, cont Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

12. TS TA TS TA Survey Tax Data TN TN Tax data – Annual, cont Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

13. Current use of GST data restricted due to operational constraints Use of existing systems Trust in tax data Two sub-annual surveys recently redesigned/developed Opportunity to significantly increase use of GST data Monthly Food Services Survey (MFSS) Quarterly Services Indicators (QSI) Increased use of GST data Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

14. Combines typical business survey design with a strategy that takes full advantage of tax data In certain strata, use GST data for all simple businesses and typical survey for complex ones Small sample of simples selected to build model In other strata, use typical survey design Increased use of GST data – MFSS Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

15. GST data used for: ~25,000 businesses based on sample of ~500 for model building ~40,000 businesses in take none Resulted in Significant improvement in quality Reduction in respondent burden Increased use of GST data – MFSS, cont Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

16. Need to improve availability of sub-annual services industries data Goals of QSI Produce quarter-to-quarter movements Economical GST data used for all simple businesses, with traditional survey of complex ones No sample of simple businesses to build model Increased use of GST data – QSI Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

17. Stability of model parameters (MFSS) Large changes across time Large variability within time Business status Deaths in GST data identified based on remittance or not Increased use of GST data – Challenges Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

18. Updating of GST data Monthly updates received from CRA Late remittances and corrections Full processing performed to produce another ‘vintage’ of data for particular reference month. Both MFSS and QSI publish revised estimates Some of the revision coming from ‘reprocessed’ GST data (imputation and calendarization) Not a true reflection of economy Increased use of GST data – Challenges Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

19. UES is now over ten years old and is starting to show its age A major redesign is being planned and increasing the use of tax data is one goal One possible option Complex businesses continue to be surveyed Covers both financial and non-financial data ‘Optimized’ for financial data Increased use of Annual Tax Data Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

20. For simple businesses, tax data becomes source of financial information Can tax be used for small complex businesses? Survey simple businesses only to respond to specific program/data needs Commodities for example ‘Optimized’ for data needs since financial information coming from tax data Increased use of Annual Tax Data, cont. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

21. TA TS Complex Full questionnaire (financial and commodities) Simple Commodities only Tax Data TN Increased use of Annual Tax Data, cont. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

22. Detailed financial data Not always reported by businesses Allocated using ratios Commodity data ‘Design’ sample for commodity data Now designed for revenue How to coordinate commodity and complex business sample? Need to make commodity and financial data coherent – Calibration Increased use of Annual Tax Data - Challenges Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

23. Business status and industry coding Many updates come from survey feedback Nature of business report? Combine with commodity questions? Close co-operation with CRA to obtain this information? Acceptance by users Possible break in series Increased use of Annual Tax Data – Challenges, cont. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

24. Use of GST data in MFSS and QSI step in right direction but still some challenges Plans discussed to increase use of annual tax data but some work still to do Statistics Canada also looking at broadening and deepening use of tax data Tax schedules Uses outside business survey program Summary and Future Work Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada

25. For more information, please contact: Pour plus d’information, veuillez contacter : Wesley.Yung@statcan.gc.ca Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada