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Implementation of JDemetra+ at the ECB

Michal Doliak ECB/DG-S/MAC. Implementation of JDemetra+ at the ECB. SAEG - 13 March 2017. Agenda. 1. Overview. 2. Development. 3. Next Steps. SA with X-12 in DGS/MAC/GES

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Implementation of JDemetra+ at the ECB

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  1. Michal Doliak ECB/DG-S/MAC Implementation of JDemetra+ at the ECB SAEG - 13 March 2017

  2. Agenda 1 Overview 2 Development 3 Next Steps JDemetra+ implemation project

  3. SA with X-12 in DGS/MAC/GES Regular seasonal adjustment for ca. 1000 time series for different data sets (e.g. Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices for the euro area (ICP), Government Finance Statistics (GFS)) Ad-hoc seasonal adjustment on request FAME databases integrated under UNIX SA process is a controlled current adjustment – database of saved seasonal factors (SSFA) and current seasonal factors (CSFA) Mixture of batch process and manual interventions (user interface - usually more than one expert) User-defined calendar regressors Overview Previous seasonal adjustment setup at the ECB JDemetra+ implemation project

  4. Motivation for migration to JD+ Software X-12 – not maintained and not supported any more by the U.S. Census Bureau JD+ – contains up-to-date SA algorithms, supported, independent development, can be integrated, well documented SAEG recommendations Increasing user base Overview Motivation JDemetra+ implemation project

  5. After consultation in 2015, senior management decision to migrate to JD+ in early 2016 Migration requirements • Integration with FAME/UNIX environment • Conversion of existing SA specification files • Automatic run in a batch mode • Use of forecasted seasonal and calendar factors • Manual interventions supported where required • Permit coordinated parallel work of two or more experts • Reports similar to existing X.12 reports • Additional functionality in the user interface for dealing w. SA specifications • Documentation Overview Implementation (1) JDemetra+ implemation project

  6. May/Jun 2016 developer recruited Jul-Nov 2016 development and testing December 2016 development finalised Intensive cooperation with the Bundesbank (consultations, SpecParcer, development of plugins) – Thank you! Overview Implementation (2) JDemetra+ implemation project

  7. Agenda 1 Overview 2 Development 3 Next Steps JDemetra+ implemation project

  8. Cruncher integration ECB workflow plugin Workspaces/Extended workspaces Multi-documents ECB evaluation plugin ECB PDF reports plugin Development JDemetra+ implemation project

  9. Development ECB workflow – automation with Cruncher JDemetra+ implemation project

  10. Development ECB workflow plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  11. Development Workspaces/Extended workspaces (1) • One workspace per (small) dataset • Workspace groups (several workspaces) for big datasets – allows coordinating work for several experts • Fixed naming conventions • Folders/files structure JDemetra+ implemation project

  12. Development Workspaces/Extended workspaces (2) JDemetra+ implemation project

  13. Development Multi-documents JDemetra+ implemation project

  14. ECB SA Evaluation plugin PDF Report plugin Development Additional Plugins JDemetra+ implemation project

  15. Development Plugins-ECB SA Evaluation plugin ECB SA Evaluation plugin ECB SA Evaluation plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  16. Development Plugins-ECB SA Evaluation plugin ECB SA Evaluation plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  17. Development Plugins-ECB SA Evaluation plugin ECB SA Evaluation plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  18. Development Plugins-ECB SA Evaluation plugin ECB SA Evaluation plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  19. Development Plugins-ECB SA Evaluation plugin ECB SA Evaluation plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  20. Development Plugins-ECB SA Evaluation plugin ECB SA Evaluation plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  21. Development Plugins-ECB SA Evaluation plugin ECB SA Evaluation plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  22. Development Plugins-ECB SA Evaluation plugin ECB SA Evaluation plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  23. Development Plugins-ECB SA Evaluation plugin ECB SA Evaluation plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  24. Development PDF Report plugin JDemetra+ implemation project

  25. Agenda 1 Overview 2 Development 3 Next Steps JDemetra+ implemation project

  26. Rolling migration of individual DG-S/MAC/GES SA datasets (timetable) • RXD – International deflators (January) • ORD – Industrial new orders (February) • ICP – HICP, CPIs(February) • CAR – Car registrations (March) • GFS – Government finance statistics (April) • IEAQ – Sectoral accounts (June and October) • Test impact on results prior to migration JD+ • Inform users • Migrate other DG-S area (e.g. BOPS) • Extend use of JD+ to the other parts of the ECB Next Steps JDemetra+ implemation project

  27. Questions? JDemetra+ implemation project

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