# Decision Tables - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Psychology of Personal Decision-Making. Decision Tables. Agenda. Video: Building Green How to Choose: “The decision ladder” Prioritized Lists Screening Fact and Value Tables Decision Tables +/- 1-10 Calculations. The Decision Ladder.

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Decision Tables

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#### Presentation Transcript

Psychology of Personal Decision-Making

## Decision Tables

### Agenda

• Video: Building Green

• How to Choose: “The decision ladder”

• Prioritized Lists

• Screening

• Fact and Value Tables

• Decision Tables

• +/-

• 1-10

• Calculations

• Start with simple methods and move to complex methods only as necessary!

• Decision Tree

• 1-10 Decision Table

• +/- Decision Table

• Screening

• Prioritized List

### Prioritized Lists

• Single alternative

### Prioritized Lists

• Build a robust list of alternatives!

• ++ save up for kayaking trip (accept)

• + go to the coast to hunt for shells (reject)

• - drive smelly grandma to airport (accept)

• --bathe grandma (reject)

### Ways to Prioritize

• Intuition vs. Analysis

• Intuition = simultaneous feelings about alternatives

• One usually feels best, so we choose

• Analysis = breaks the problem into sub parts and solves

• If the decision is important, use analysis!

### After Analysis is complete…

• “Does this really make sense?”

• “Does it seem right?”

• If no…

• Analysis is wrong (values, alternatives, weights)

• Intuition is wrong (denying yourself the truth)

• Both are wrong

### Errors in intuition

• World is flat

• Highly streamlined shapes best for earth re-entry

• Odds 2 people will have same birthday in classroom of 30 (= 1 in 30)

• Galileo and Tower of Pisa

• Others?

### Choosing among alternatives

• Either:

• Choose alternative giving you the most ammo for justifying the choice to others

• Choose based on good outcomes or consequences

• Beware of “rule of thumb” justifications

• “2 heads better than 1 vs. too many cooks in the kitchen spoil the broth”

### Explain to me?

• “When the sky looks like its been scratched by a hen, it’s time to reef your topsails then”

### If rules of thumb are in conflict:

• Consider outcomes or consequences

### Screening

• A lot like panning for gold

• Consider 1 attribute at a time and reject

• TV purchase : Store first, then warranty, then…

• Best buy, Target, Staples, Newegg, Amazon

• Sony, Mitsubishi, Sanyo

### Problem with screening

• You may have screened something really good out!

• FIX: Screen the most important value first

• If doubt about keeping an alternative, keep it!

• This way mistakes will not be huge

• TAKEAWAY: Screen when values of very high importance are abound

### Very high importance screening example

• Bleeding, Breathing, Poisoning, Broken Bones

### Decision Tables

• Ensures same values will be compared against multiple alternatives

• Screened out all linguists but Oxford grads because of stage presence

• Still are comparing stage presence on each Oxford grad

### Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs

Creative Alternative???

### Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs

Creative Alternative???

Dominance??

### Value Table Conversion = +/- Preferences

Dominance??

• We hope to find it, but caution!

• May indicate superior alternative

• Also irrationality/extremes

### 1-10 value tables: RWAM!

• Rate (1-10, since zeroes confuse people)

• Go globally, so 1 is at least preferable but may not be in your range

• Weight

• Use magic wishes

• Multiply Down

### Relative Importance

• Can help to think about relative:

• Magnitude

• Duration

• Probability

• Number of people impacted

### Commitment

• Bumper sticker slogans

• Written sentences