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The Cost of Policy Inaction The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target

The Cost of Policy Inaction The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target. Dr. Leon C. Braat. CBD COP 9 - Side Event - UNEP-FI and FFI - Bonn, May 29, 2008. The Cost of Policy Inaction L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) with

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The Cost of Policy Inaction The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target

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  1. The Cost of Policy Inaction The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target Dr. Leon C. Braat CBD COP 9 - Side Event - UNEP-FI and FFI - Bonn, May 29, 2008

  2. The Cost of Policy Inaction L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) with J. Bakkes, K. Bolt, I. Braeuer, B. ten Brink, A. Chiabai, H. Ding, H. Gerdes, M. Jeuken, M. Kettunen, U. Kirchholtes, C. Klok, A. Markandya, P. Nunes, M. van Oorschot, N. Peralta-Bezerra, M. Rayment, C. Travisi, M. Walpole. Wageningen / Brussels, May 2008 Based on the Report to the European Commission, May 29, 2008

  3. COPI CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

  4. 1. The OECD Baseline scenario and international policies 9.1 billion inhabitants by 2050 GDP global average: 2.8% per year

  5. 2. The Global Loss of Biodiversity 73% 62% The total biodiversity loss 2000-2050: All biodiversity of 1,300 million ha converted to asphalt. (about 1.5 times the United States)

  6. The Global Loss of Biodiversity 2000

  7. The Global Loss of Biodiversity 2030

  8. The Global Loss of Biodiversity 2050

  9. 2. The Global Loss of Biodiversity: deforestation in Brasil GLOBIO MODEL OUTPUT OVERLAY ON GOOGLE EARTH

  10. We are fishing down the foodweb – D. Pauly (UBC, Canada) 2. The Global Loss of Biodiversity CBD indicator: Marine Trophic Index

  11. 40 % 40 % 20 % 2010 2. The Global Loss of Biodiversity THE DEMISE OF GLOBAL FISHERIES Source: Sea Around Us project

  12. 2. The Global Loss of Biodiversity Anthropogenic Impacts on Marine Ecosystems East- carribean East Chinese Sea North Sea Source: National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, UC Santa Barbara

  13. 2. The Global Loss of Biodiversity CBD global 2010 target: significantly reducing the rate of biodiversity loss European Union 2010 target: halting the loss of biodiversity The Targets will not be met, not by 2010, And in a no-new policy Scenario: not by 2050

  14. 2. The Global Loss of Biodiversity PARKS AND PROTECTED AREAS IN THE WORLD

  15. 2050 2050 2000 2000 3. Changes in Ecosystem Services due to loss of Biodiversity

  16. Pristine forest Original species Extensive use Extensive use Subsistence agriculture Plantation Fossil fuel subsidized Degraded land 3. Changes in Ecosystem Services due to loss of Biodiversity

  17. GDP, with feedback to economy from biodiversity losses integrated - illustrative GDP 2.8%/year GDP: 41.4$ trillion (PPP) (10^12) Population: 9100 million GDP/capita: 680$ (PPP) Population: 6092 million GDP adjusted for impact of biodiversity loss - illustrative Services that would have been there, had biodiversity loss been halted Ecosystem service level Remaining ecosystem services 4. Changes in Economic value due to loss of Biodiversity 2000 2050 Source: Patrick ten Brink (IEEP), Leon Braat (Alterra), Mark van Ooorshot (MNP), Matt Rayment (GHK)

  18. THE GLOBAL MONETARY COST OF POLICY INACTION 4. Changes in Economic value due to loss of Biodiversity Land based ecosystems only The loss grows with each year of biodiversity and ecosystem loss.

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