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How Much Do We Have Left? Coming to Terms With the Colorado River Water Availability Study Annual Colorado Water Workshop July 21, 2010 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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How Much Do We Have Left? Coming to Terms With the Colorado River Water Availability Study Annual Colorado Water Workshop July 21, 2010. Ben Harding – AMEC Earth and Environmental Erin Wilson – Leonard Rice Engineers. Colorado Decision Support System - Overview. Water Management System

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How Much Do We Have Left? Coming to Terms With the Colorado River Water Availability Study Annual Colorado Water Workshop July 21, 2010

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How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

How Much Do We Have Left?Coming to Terms With the Colorado River Water Availability StudyAnnual Colorado Water WorkshopJuly 21, 2010

Ben Harding – AMEC Earth and Environmental

Erin Wilson – Leonard Rice Engineers


Colorado decision support system overview

Colorado Decision Support System - Overview

  • Water Management System

  • Developed by CWCB and Division of Water Resources

  • Goal is to provide data/tools to assist in making informed decisions regarding historic and future use of water

Legislative Authorization

Initial CRDSS Development

(Gunnison, Yampa, Colorado, San Juan, Dolores)

SPDSS Development

(South Platte, North Platte)

Maintenance & Updates, Arkansas?

RGDSS Development

(Rio Grande)

CRDSS(Enhancements and Extension)

1998

future

1992

1993

2001


Colorado decision support system

Colorado Decision Support System

User/Operator/Administrator Input

Consumptive Use Model“StateCU”

HydroBase

DataManagementInterfaces

Results for Decision Makers

GIS Coverages

Surface

Water Model

“StateMod”


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

  • Estimating Water Availability

Consumptive Use ModelStateCU

Surface Water Model StateMod

Results for Decision Makers

Alternate Temperature

Alternate CIR

Physical and Legal Water Availability

Alternate Hydrology

Alternate Precipitation


Findings temperature

Findings - Temperature

  • Map shows Averageof the Five 2040 Projections

  • All Five Projections show Temperature Increases

  • Increases basin-wide by 3.3 to 3.7 deg F

  • Lower elevations show largest increase

  • Increase occurs each month of the year


Findings temperature1

Findings - Temperature


Findings temperature2

Findings - Temperature


Findings winter precipitation nov mar

Findings - Winter Precipitation (Nov-Mar)

  • Map shows Average of Five Projections

  • Increases basin-wide by 6 to 13 percent

  • Increases more in the northern part of the basin

  • Increases more at higher elevations

  • Shifts from snow to rain in the shoulder months


Findings summer precipitation apr oct

Findings - Summer Precipitation (Apr-Oct)

  • Decreases basin-wide by 4 to 10 percent

  • Wet projections show more precipitation in some summer months than dry projections

  • Decreases more in the southern part of the basin

  • Decreases less at higher elevations


Findings precipitation

Findings - Precipitation


Findings precipitation1

Findings - Precipitation


Findings crop irrigation requirement

Findings - Crop Irrigation Requirement

  • Map shows Average of Five Projections

  • Increases basin-wide 2.6 to 6.7 in/yr for pasture grass

  • Basin-wide CIR is 20% greater than historical

  • Growing season increases basin-wide by 15 to 22 days

  • Increases more at lower elevations


Findings crop irrigation requirement1

Findings - Crop Irrigation Requirement


Findings crop irrigation requirement2

Findings - Crop Irrigation Requirement


Statemod model components

StateMod Model Components


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Inflow Hydrology – Natural Flows

  • Historical Natural Flows Estimated by Removing the Effects of Man from Gaged Flows

    • Diversions

    • Reservoir Contents

    • Return Flows

  • Climate Projected Natural Flows

16


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Physical Systems

  • Diversion Structures

    • Location on the River

    • Headgate and Canal Capacities

    • Return Flow Locations

  • Reservoirs

    • Location on River or Off-Channel

    • Location of Carrier Ditches

    • Storage Volume, Outlet Capacities, Account Size, Area/Capacity Tables

  • Instream Flow Reaches

    • Beginning/Ending of Reach

17


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Water Demands

  • Irrigation Demands

    • Full Irrigation Water Requirements from StateCU (Historical, Based on Climate Projections)

  • Municipal and Industrial Demands

    • Current Use Levels

  • Trans-basin Demands

    • Current Diversions

  • Reservoir “Demands”

    • Reservoir Capacities or Operational Targets

18


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Water Demands

  • CWCB Instream Flow Demands based on Water Rights

  • Reservoir and Trans-basin Bypass Requirements based on Operational Agreements

  • Endangered Species Flow Demands based on Flow Targets

19


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Administrative Conditions

  • Water Rights (Direct, Storage, Instream Flow)

  • Reservoir and Carrier Operations

  • Policies and Agreements (Such as Minimum Bypasses, Fish Flows, etc)

  • Potential Colorado River Compact Obligations NOT Included in Phase I

  • Conditional Rights without Current Demands NOT included in Phase I

20


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Model Operations

  • Based on Natural Inflow and Return Flows from Previous Time Steps

  • Identifies Most Senior Water Right

  • Estimates Diversion =min (Demand, Water Right, Headgate Capacity, Available Flow)

  • Adjusts Downstream Flows to Reflect Senior Diversions and Immediate Return Flows

  • Future Returns are Calculated

  • Repeated for Next Junior Water Right

21


Sequence of results uncompahgre river at delta and gunnison river basin

Sequence of Results: Uncompahgre River at Delta and Gunnison River Basin


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Natural Flow


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Streamflow


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Water Availability


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Water Availability


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Consumptive Use


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Reservoir Storage


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Reservoir Storage


Result summary west slope basins

Result Summary: West-Slope Basins


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Water Availability


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Consumptive Use


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Reservoir Storage


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Reservoir Storage


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Water Availability


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Water Availability


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Consumptive Use


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Reservoir Storage


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Reservoir Storage


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Water Availability


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Water Availability

41PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEWColorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Consumptive Use

42PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEWColorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Reservoir Storage

43PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEWColorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

Modeled Reservoir Storage

44PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEWColorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

  • Result Summary – Natural Flow

  • Annual flow increases in some possible futures and decreases in others

  • Annual flow generally increases in parts of the Yampa River basin and at higher elevation watersheds

  • Annual flow generally decreases in southwestern watersheds and at lower elevations

  • Shifts toward earlier peak runoff

  • Flow decreases in late summer and early fall

45PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEWColorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

  • Result Summary – Modeled Streamflow

  • Annual modeled streamflow decreases basin-wide, except in the Yampa River basin, and higher elevation locations in the Upper Colorado River basin

  • Modeled Flow increases in April and May and decreases in later summer and fall months

46PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEWColorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

  • Result Summary – Water Available to

  • Meet Future Demands

  • Higher elevations generally have less annual flow available to meet future demands, as a percent of modeled streamflow

  • Available flow generally increases in April and May, corresponding to the shift in natural flow hydrographs

47PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEWColorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

  • Result Summary – Modeled Consumptive Use

  • Increases in Yampa, White, Upper Colorado, and Gunnison basins by 4 to 18 %

  • Decreases in the San Juan and Dolores basins by 8 %

48PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEWColorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I


How much do we have left coming to terms with the colorado river water availability study annual colorado water workshop july 21 2010

  • Result Summary – Use of Reservoirs

  • Reservoirs show increased use

  • Pool levels fluctuate more than historical

  • Shifts in Runoff Increases the Value and Need for Storage

49PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEWColorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I


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