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Directorate General for Energy and Transport

Discussion for a co-ordinated trans-European Deployment Plan for ERTMS. 15 June 2004 ERTMS Working Group Jean-Arnold Vinois Head of Unit “Rail Transport and Interoperability”. Directorate General for Energy and Transport. EU-15 Rail network length 2004. 153 000 km.

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Directorate General for Energy and Transport

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  1. Discussion for a co-ordinated trans-European Deployment Plan for ERTMS 15 June 2004 ERTMS Working Group Jean-Arnold Vinois Head of Unit “Rail Transport and Interoperability” Directorate General for Energy and Transport

  2. EU-15 Rail network length 2004 153 000 km EU-15 Locomotives and railcars 35 000 EU-15 TEN-T network (of which HSL) 2010 78 000 km (25 000 km) Unit cost ETCS level 2 per loco (AEIF) 0.4 M€ Unit cost ETCS level 2 (double track - interlocking) 0.08 M€ / km 30 % European fleet retrofitted 4 200 M€ Full implementation ETCS level 2 on HSL TEN-T 2 000 M€ (25 000 km) Orders of Magnitude of Costs Directorate General for Energy and Transport

  3. Orders of Magnitude of Benefits Ecorys Results

  4. Orders of Magnitude of Benefits Ecorys Results

  5. Sensibility Analysis Overview of costs and benefits (results expressed in net present value) at different time horizons Overview of costs and benefits (results expressed in net present value) at different discount rates

  6. EU-migration: - costs < 7 billion € (2005-2015) - benefits > 7 billion € (2005-2045) - positive NPV 2011 A clear need for EU financial support to accelerate the baseline scenario for ETCS implementation Directorate General for Energy and Transport

  7. Discussion for EU deployment plan 1/ A Corridors’ Approach based on different layers: - TEN-T netwok and Pan-European Corridors (30 Priority Projects) - National Deployment Plans (Projects where implementation is decided) - RNE preconstructed train paths - Traffic Forecasts To achieve a coherent and co-ordinated trans-European implementation Aternative approaches? Proposals?

  8. Discussion for EU deployment plan 2/ A Reasonable Timeframe (2005-2015) - to accelerate the « national strategies » and baseline scenario resulting from the legal demands (>2020) - to foster the iterative and automatic change rate (see situation GSM-R) resulting from the absence of alternatives - to match the EU guidelines for the development of the TEN network (2020) - to use the opportunity/open window of the EU “new financial perspectives” post 2006 - to match to “softwares” evolutions and change control management of these tools And what about the industry ability to offer the adequate services ?

  9. Discussion for EU deployment plan • 3/ Proposals • - to adopt an iterative approach mixing national deployment plans for HS, EU guidelines, national deployment plans for CR (see slide …) to finalize an European HS and CR deployment plan in 2005-2006 • - to create an “ERTMS coordonateur” (according to legal provisions of the Decision …/2004/EC amending Decision 1692/96/EC) to facilitate relations between project promoters, ERA, the Commission and Member States; • ERTMS coordonateur? • corridor coordonateur? • - to propose a better and increased use of the TEN budget line in the framework of the new EU financial perspectives (on-board and on track equipments in a package) – 50 % of EU co-financing

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