Transport Sector Performance Indicators: Sri Lanka Existing Situation

1. Transport Sector Performance Indicators: Sri Lanka Existing Situation Amal S. KumarageProfessor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Moratuwa Chairman, National Transport Commission kumarage@sltnet.lk 21st April 05

2. Overview of Land Transport & the Economy- 2003 • GDP – Rs 1,400 billion • Value Addition to Economy Rs 178 billion (12%) • Employment Direct 700,000 (11% of national) • Government Capital Allocation Rs 300 bn • Government Expenditure on Transport Sector • Highways Rs 13.5 bn (4.5%) • Transport Rs 6.5 bn (2%)

3. Sri Lanka Transport: The Demand • Population 19 million • Distribution 70% in rural areas • Metro Areas – Colombo 3 million • Town Centres – 50,000 to 300,000 • GDP per capita US$ 980 • Employment (Agricultural based 45%, industries 25%, services 30%)

4. Sri Lanka Transport: The Supply • Transport Infrastructure • Transport Services

5. Transport Infrastructure • Highways • Expressways -None • National Highways -11,760 kms • Provincial Highways -15,743 kms • Rural Roads -68,843 kms • Footpaths & Tracks – estimated at 120,000 kms • Railways 1,449 kms • Navigable Inland Waterways – less than 100 kms

6. Ancient Modern

7. Motor Vehicle Fleet

8. Vehicle Ownership per 100 households (Central Bank, Consumer Finance Surveys)

9. Modal Share of Land Transport- 2001

10. National Modal Share - 2003

12. Priorities in Land Transport • Reduce Total Transport & Externality Cost for Economy. • Improve Quality/Service Levels of Public Transport. • Reduce Financial Burden of Public Transport on Treasury through Strategic Reform of SLR and Cluster Cos. • Managing Road Space & Traffic Flow by Levying charges to recover actual cost of Road Use • Reduce the burden from road accidents and environmental impacts

13. Description of Sub Sectors • Buses • Railways • Three Wheelers • Trucking • Private Transport • Rural Transport

14. Bus Transport In Sri Lanka Private Individual Operators (1907) Re-entry of Private Individual Operators (1978) Formation of Companies (1942) Formation of Companies? Nationalization (1958)

15. Impact of Bus Transport on Sri Lankan Society & Economy • 50 billion passenger kms per year  65% of all travel • 30 billion Rupees in economic value  3% of GDP • 10 million trips per day 2 trips per household per day • 80 % households use the bus at least 1 time per week • Also 84,000 persons directly employed

16. What are the basic problems facing the industry? • Inadequate fares Inadequate investment in buses? • Weak regulation  Lack of Enforcement • Weak Market Structure Unmanageable number of operators • Abandonment of professional practices  poorly managed industry Although regulated fares, and the single bus ownership have been the most quoted reasons for this state of affairs, recent study and documentation reveals that a host of regulatory lapses are in fact the primary cause of this situation.

17. Performance Indicators- Buses • Quality – Load Factor, Journey Speeds, Directness, Availability during unprofitable times, routes. Reliability • Efficiency: Bus Utilisation, Revenue/Cost per km. • Fare – Affordability to lower income deciles. • Cost to Society: Net Subsidy • Safety- crew standards, accidents, bus standards • Convenience & Comfort- value additions. • Niche Markets: Schools, Offices, Industries served • Infrastructure: Terminals, Stops, Busways

18. Railway Transport • Fully regulated since inception • Problem areas • Lack of commercial/passenger interest • Pre-occupation with employee rights • High financial losses • Abortive attempts on unbundling or private investment/management

19. Performance Indicators- Trains • Quality – Load Factor, Journey Speeds. • Efficiency: Track & Rolling Stock Utilization • Fare – Affordability to lower income deciles. • Cost to Society: subsidies less externality benefits • Safety- track & rolling stock standards, • Convenience & Comfort- value additions. • Niche Markets: Freight, Tourism • Infrastructure: Land Utilisation, Station Development

20. Three Wheelers • Popularity rising due to deterioration of public transport • Primary reason being attractive as means of self-employment • Presently 142,000 vehicles, but transport 2% of share. • Problem areas: • Cartelisation • Inefficiency

21. Performance Indicators- Three Wheelers • Quantity & Efficiency: Vehicle Utilisation • Fare – Affordability to middle income deciles. • Cost to Society: pollution and parking costs

22. Trucking • Has always been fully deregulated • Efficient in corporate settings • In informal settings, poor productivity, high fares, externalities • Trucking is subsidized by the Govt.

23. Performance Indicators- Trucks • Efficiency: Vehicle Utilization • Cost to shippers. • Cost to Society: externalities due to pavement damage, congestion, pollution • Safety- vehicle and crew standards, • Infrastructure: Logistics Centres, Warehousing

24. Private Vehicles

25. Vehicles/Traffic in Colombo City • 140,000 vehicle enter the city daily • 1,000,000 passengers enter the city daily • 64% arrive by bus (takes 25% of road space) • 10% arrive by railway • 26% arrive by private transport (takes 65% of road space)

26. The Problems of Road Safety • Costs 2200+ lives, disables 4,000+, injures a further 12,000. • Damage only accidents 38,848. • Total accidents 57,618 • Only 700 (4%) receive any compensation. • Economic Cost of accidents Rs. 10 billion ++ • Risk of death due to road accident has risen from 1 in 115 (1977) to 1 in 51 (2002)

27. Performance Indicators- Private Vehicles • Efficiency: Network Speed, Vehicle Occupancy • Cost to users as VOC. • Cost to Society: externalities due to congestion, pollution and accidents • Safety & Environment- vehicle and crew standards, • Infrastructure: User Separation, Intersection Control

28. Performance Indicators Rural Transport • Accessibility (to basic services, employment opportunities and markets) • Ownership of vehicles • Affordability of services

29. Performance Indicators- Overall Transport • Efficiency: Network Speeds (rail, roads, bus) • Cost to Government: Net Subsidies • Resource Utilization: Energy Efficiency, Land Utilization, • Affordability of different modes to different sectors of society • Cost to Society: inputs plus externalities due to congestion, pollution and accidents • Employment Generation • Safety & Environment- minimum standards,

30. THANK YOU

31. Economic Cost of Transport 2003 Direct Operating Costs • Railways Rs 4,700 mn • Buses Rs 36,288 mn • Three Wheelers Rs 13,230 mn • Private Vehicles Rs 71,875 mn • Goods Transport Rs 61,000 mn • TOTAL Rs 178,393 mn Cost of Externalities • Time Value > 30 km/hr Rs 77,500 mn • Time Value <30km/hr Rs 16,250 mn • Unpaid Accident Costs Rs 10,000 mn • Environmental Rs 2,000 mn • TOTAL Rs. 105,750 mn

32. Fuel Consumption-2003 • Diesel 2,700 mn litres – Rs. 91,000 mn • Petrol 400 mn litres – Rs. 12,000 mn • Fuel Cost for railways - Rs 3,500 mn • Fuel Cost for buses - Rs. 3,000 mn • 10% of fuel for railways/buses – but they carry 73% of passengers. • Over the last few months all these costs have increased by around 60%.

33. Economic Direct Costs in Land Transport (2003)

34. Government Expenditure 2003 Expenditure • Roads – National Rs.11,300 mn • Roads – Provincial Rs. 2,151 mn • Railways Rs 3,500 mn • Buses Rs 3,000 mn TOTAL Rs 20,000 mn Income • Vehicle taxes etc. Rs 12,000 mn • Import Taxes Rs 5,000 mn • Taxes on Fuel Rs 5,000 mn • Registration/Annual License Rs 2,000 mn TOTAL Rs 24,000 mn