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About ECS

Dropouts and Dropout Prevention Jennifer Dounay Education Commission of the States Presentation to Oklahoma Senate Education Committee Oklahoma City, OK October 29, 2007. About ECS. 50-state education compact est’d 1965 Nonpartisan, nonprofit

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  1. Dropouts and Dropout PreventionJennifer DounayEducation Commission of the StatesPresentation to Oklahoma Senate Education CommitteeOklahoma City, OKOctober 29, 2007

  2. About ECS • 50-state education compact est’d 1965 • Nonpartisan, nonprofit • Serves all state-level education policymakers and their staffs: • Governors • Legislators • State board members • State superintendents • SHEEOs and higher education boards Education Commission of the States

  3. Overview of Presentation • National perspective on dropouts • Implications of dropping out • What the research says • What states are doing Education Commission of the States

  4. Dropouts: A National Perspective • Class of 2007: 70% graduation rate • 30% spread b/w highest, lowest states • Utah: 83.8% • South Carolina: 53.8% • 1.23 million dropouts b/w 2003-04 9th graders and 2006-07 12th graders • Minority students = more than half of all dropouts • Females, regardless of race, more likely HS grads • 9th grade = 1/3 of dropouts Source: Education Week, 2007 Diplomas Count Education Commission of the States

  5. The Freshman Pipeline Education Commission of the States

  6. State-reported data can be faulty Different means of calculating = different results Incomplete data systems Variation in definition of “dropout” Human error Audits have identified higher-than-reported dropout rates in states Caveats about Dropout/Graduation Rate Data Education Commission of the States

  7. Dropping Out andEmployment/Income • Dropouts more likely to be unemployed or out of labor force • Current average annual earnings of dropout = $19,400 • Federal poverty level = $19,971 for family of four • Average annual earnings vary by race/gender • HS dropout, over lifetime, earns $260,000 less than HS grad and $1 million less than college grad • U.S. Chamber of Commerce: 90% of fastest-growing jobs need postsec. Education Commission of the States

  8. Job Opportunities: Out of the Zone • Zone 1: Median income: $12, 638 (32% HS dropouts, 37% HS grads) • Zone 2: Median income: $24,461 (16% HS dropouts, 38% HS grads) • Zone 3: Median income: $35,672 (just 9% HS dropouts, 27% HS grads, 37% some college) • More than 76 million jobs in U.S. in zones 3-5 Education Commission of the States

  9. Tax Revenues and Dropouts • HS grad = average extra $139,100 in lifetime tax payments • Class of 2004 dropouts = will cost U.S. over $325 billion in lost wages, taxes Education Commission of the States

  10. Implications of Dropping Out: Incarceration Dropouts comprise: • 75% of state prison inmates • 69% of jail inmates • Almost 59% of federal inmates Numbers entering state prison w/o diploma rose in 1990s Inmates cite different reasons for dropping out, compared to general population Education Commission of the States

  11. Reducing Crime and Costs by Reducing Dropouts • Average lifetime saving per add’l HS grad = $26,600 • Reduced costs in: • Policing/trials/sentencing • Incarceration • Victim medical care/lost tax revenues • Gov’t crime prevention agencies 5% increase in male HS grad. rates = $5 billion in incarceration costs Education Commission of the States

  12. Dropping Out and Health • Link between more school, life expectancy • U.S. findings = findings in Sweden, Denmark, Wales, England • High school graduation linked to lower medical care time & expenses • Higher levels of parent learning = better infant, children health. • Infant mortality rates • Low birth weights Education Commission of the States

  13. Dropouts andPublic Health Costs • More education = < need for Medicaid • Medicaid savings/grad • $800/year AA woman • $900/year Hispanic woman • Average lifetime savings per HS grad = $40,500 Education Commission of the States

  14. Feds = $168 billion/year States = $25 billion/year on: Cash aid Food benefits Housing aid Energy aid Training TANF: Approx. 50% dropouts Disproportionately Female Minority Food stamps over lifetime: 64% of adult dropouts 38% HS grads Dropouts and Welfare Education Commission of the States

  15. Welfare Cost Savings of HS Grads HS Grads: • TANF—40% less likely • Housing assistance—1% less likely • Food stamps—19% less likely Some college: • TANF—62% less likely • Housing assistance—35% less likely • Food stamps—54% less likely Education Commission of the States

  16. Cost/Benefit of New Grads • Spending an additional $82K per new HS grad = $209K higher gov’t revenues ($127K net benefit) • Net benefit = increased tax rev., reduced gov’t costs • Total $45 billion lifetime savings for ONE COHORT 20-yr.-olds Education Commission of the States

  17. Dropping Out and Teen Pregnancy • 26% of all dropouts, 1/3 female dropouts are teen parents • Fewer than 1/3 of mothers before 18 earn HS diploma (1.5% earn college degree by 30) • Students with low academic achievement 2x as likely to become parents by grade 12 • Having teenage mother increases odds of dropping out Education Commission of the States

  18. Dropping Out and Divorce • 71% of dropouts come from fatherless homes • Link between dropping out and future divorce • College-ed. less likely to divorce • 1st graders with high stress at home (death, divorce, family moves) = elevated dropout risk • Low SES 1st graders w/ 2 parents at home = moderated dropout risk Education Commission of the States

  19. What Does the Research Say? • On-track in grade 9 • Math curriculum • School size • Math coursetaking/achievement grade 9 • Indicators as early as grade 6 • Student-teacher relationships Education Commission of the States

  20. “What Matters for Staying on Track and Graduating in Chicago Public High Schools” • Course failures matter • Attendance matters most • What else matters: • Student effort • Relationships • Gender/race • “The Engagement Factor” • Programmatic approaches rarely effective • Use data to target needs Education Commission of the States

  21. What Do Dropouts Say? • Top 5 Reasons for Leaving School: • Classes not interesting: 47% • Missed too many days, couldn’t catch up: 43% • Spent time w/people not interested in school: 42% • Had too much freedom and not enough rules in my life: 38% • Was failing in school: 35% Education Commission of the States

  22. What Might Have Kept Them in School • Making content more relevant to their lives • 81%: “Real-world learning” via internships, service learning • Better teachers who keep class interesting: 81% • Smaller classes: 75% • More after-school tutoring, extra help: 70% • More parental involvement: 70% • Better communication b/w parents/school: 71% Education Commission of the States

  23. Impact of Parental Awareness Education Commission of the States

  24. Dropout Prevention: What States Are Doing • Increasing rigor of HS curriculum • Student accountability • Graduation plans/career “majors” • Remediation • Early college high schools • Small schools/small learning communities • Alternative pathways to standard diploma • Middle grades efforts • Parental involvement • Ninth grade initiatives Education Commission of the States

  25. Increasing Rigor • Supported by research • OK Class of 2010: part of nat’l trend • Too soon to tell for state efforts • Local efforts (San Jose, CA) encouraging Education Commission of the States

  26. Student Accountability • Upper compulsory school age • Gets at “too much freedom” cited by dropouts • No pass/no drive: 27 states • No pass/no play: 23 states • Upper statutory age: 21 in 31 states • Learnfare Education Commission of the States

  27. Graduation Plans/Career Majors • OK: Variation on a theme • Add relevance • Not aware of research base Education Commission of the States

  28. Remediation • Districts req’d to provide/student req’d to attend • Individual graduation plans for at-risk students • State requires districts to evaluate: 10 states • Supported by research and dropouts themselves Education Commission of the States

  29. Early College High Schools • Combine HS w/Associate’s Degree (60 credits) • Targeted to high minority and/or high poverty • 2/3 African American or Latino • 60% free/reduced lunch • Center for Native Education: 18 sites in AK, CA, OR, WA • State-level policies in 5 states(CO, NC, PA, TN, TX) • Early returns positive: • 90%+ attendance rates • Promotion rates above 90% Education Commission of the States

  30. Small Schools/Small Learning Communities • More local than state-level response • Research and dropouts’ experience support • NV: HS of 1,200+ students must provide SLCs • CA: Financial incentives • FL: • “Guiding principle” in each HS improvement plan • State policy establishes SLC models of career/professional academies • District policy must encourage any not-small school to divide into schools-within-a-school Education Commission of the States

  31. Alternative Pathways to Standard Diploma • KY: Credit recovery through virtual school • IN: School Flex program • FL: Districts must provide: • Alternative means of showing competency • Creative/flexible scheduling • Credit recovery courses, intensive math/reading intervention courses based on FCAT scores • FL: Dept. to provide more applied, integrated courses • NV: Earn HS credits while working toward HS promotion Education Commission of the States

  32. Middle Grades Efforts • FL, KY: Career awareness/planning as early as grade 6 • FL: Middle grades course promotion policies • FL: Intensive reading, math remediation for low FCAT scorers • NV: Include grade 6-8 dropout rates in state board report • MS: Pilot on building relationships, planning for future, importance of staying in school Education Commission of the States

  33. Parental Involvement • Addresses research, dropouts’ suggestions • Areas of policy: • Developing formal parent involvement policy • Communicating academic expectations to parents • Recognizing, accommodating parent needs • Building staff capacity to engage with parents • Building parent capacity to engage with fellow parents, staff, and community members • Developing success benchmarks and evaluating impact Education Commission of the States

  34. Ninth Grade Initiatives • NV: SLCs in large high schools: • Designate separate grade 9 area • Keep data on credits earned, attendance, truancy, other at-risk indicators • Offer timely ID of grade 9 student needs, i.e., remediation, counseling • Increase parental involvement at grade 9 • Assign guidance counselors, 1+ licensed administrator, adult mentors for 9th graders Education Commission of the States

  35. Last but Not Least Dropping back in • Upper statutory age • Opportunities to earn HS diploma at CC • Flexible scheduling • Career/next steps planning Education Commission of the States

  36. Want to Learn More? • ECS Research Studies Database: www.ecs.org/rs • ECS Remediation Database: www.ecs.org > HS Databases • The Costs and Benefits of an Excellent Education for All of America’s Children http://www.cbcse.org/modules/download_gallery/dlc.php?file=35 • Coming soon! ECS database and policy brief on early college high schools • Coming soon! ECS policy brief on parental involvement at the HS level Education Commission of the States

  37. jdounay@ecs.org 303.299.3689 Education Commission of the States

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