RESEARCH AND DATA NEEDS FOR NEW DECISION MAKING PROCESSES IN WATER SECTOR UNDER NON-STATIONARY CONDITIONS

1. RESEARCH AND DATA NEEDS FOR NEW DECISION MAKING PROCESSES IN WATER SECTOR UNDER NON-STATIONARY CONDITIONS Julie van der Bliek Presentation at Inter-Agency Consultation Meeting on User Interface Platform for GFCS, Rome, 26-28 Sep

2. About IWMI IWMI is one of 15 research centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Mission: To improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. Where we work: Headquarters: Colombo, Sri Lanka In Africa : Ghana, Southern Africa, Ethiopia In Asia: India, Pakistan, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Central Asia, Syria

3. CONTENT Need for immediate and full sharing of available data Need for observed data Research focus: CRP5 Water, Lands and Ecosystems Example Research Needs

4. THE PROBLEM OF OBSERVED DATA AVAILABILITY Observed hydrological and meteorological data are fundamental for progress in water resources science and management Synthetic / simulated data are derivatives of observed. Improvement in the management of water resources will not come with better simulations alone. Slow progress with observed data collection over recent decades: Developing countries remain poorly gauged Signs of declining observational networks globally Access to already collected data is limited due to various barriers

5. 5 THE PROBLEM OF OBSERVED DATA AVAILABILITY Observed hydrological and meteorological data are the bases on which the progress in water resources science and practice depends Synthetic / simulated data are derivatives of observed. Improvement in the management of water resources will not come with better simulation models alone Slow progress with observed data collection over recent decades: Developing countries remain poorly gauged Signs of declining observational networks globally Access to already collected data is limited due to various barriers

6. DATA SHARING: RESOLUTIONS AND DOCUMENTS The UN Conference on Environment and Development (Rio de Janeiro, 1992) – a call for global commitment to promoting access to systematic observations The UN Commission on Sustainable Development (1998) – exchange of water-related data and periodic assessment of data exchange needed The 12-the session (2006) of the Intergovernmental Council of UNESCO IHP - a resolution on international exchange of hydrological data for research at regional and international levels UN Convention of 1997 on Non-Navigational Uses of Water – urges states of international basins to exchange “readily available data” WMO Congresses of 1995 and 1999, representing all 170 WMO member states, adopted resolutions on meteorological and hydrological data sharing respectively The 1999 resolution urged member states to provide hydrological data on a free and unrestricted basis for: protection of life and property international programs and projects non-commercial uses The requirement for full, open and prompt exchange of hydrological data is recognized by the CBD, UNFCCC and UNCCD

7. DATA SHARING: STATUS Most of the water sector is probably not aware of the above documents The impact of these resolutions is not known / never been assessed There is no reinforcement mechanism In many developing countries data are not freely available even internally GRDC has only some 7700 daily and monthly data sets from stations around the globe (http://grdc.bafg.de) – but compare with 7500 daily stations of USGS alone… Only 20 out of 170 WMO member states (shown in black below) share their metadata (not data themselves) using the WMO INFOHYDRO on-line system:

8. DATA SHARING: REASONS AND NEEDS To “manage” climate change : Monitoring impacts on hydrological regimes Downscaling GCMs output to smaller scales Design of adaptation measures Quantification of accelerated land-use changes due to Biofuels, CDM To have a benchmark against which to estimate the changing climates To prevent loss of data by backing up national archives To improve accuracy of global hydrological models, in turn, providing data for data-poor regions - a form of international humanitarian help To improve trans-boundary water management: water conflicts and/or water- sharing agreements which are impossible to implement

9. OBSERVED GROUND DATA: WHAT TO DO Investment in on-the-ground observations (on hydrology and climate) Spend e.g. 1% of investments in water infrastructure on water observation infrastructure- i.e. improving the density of observed networks Scientifically revise and institutionalize the guidelines for observation network density Hi tech methods may not always work in developing world, community water management must be tried at massive scales

10. Opportunities: Improving RS observations Invest in improving our observations from space Aim to measure all water balance components (rainfall, groundwater storage, soil moisture storage, discharge) - from space, i.e. remotely, INSTEAD of ground observations in the end. Some technologies available, but they are still either coming from re-analysis of RS data, not very reliable, not very resolute spatially (some), not freely available (some), or short (we need long-term time series).

11. Need: Finer temporal resolution Climate change will change the extremes, and phenomena occurring at finer temporal resolutions. Finer temporal resolution would help to capture extremes that are likely to change with changing climate (daily, hourly)

12. Water, Land and Ecosystems in the CGIAR (CRP5)Improved NRM for food security and livelihoodswww.iwmi.org/crp5 To learn how to intensify farming activities, expand agricultural areas and restore degraded lands, while using natural resources wisely and minimizing harmful impacts on supporting ecosystems. 5 Strategic Research Portfolios (SRPs): Irrigated Systems, Rainfed Systems, Resource Reuse and Recovery, River Basins and Information Systems 2 crosscutting themes: Ecosystems services and Institutions & Governance 14 CGIAR Centres & FAO and many other partners

13. SRP Information Systems: Vision To support decision making by stakeholders at a range of levels using location specific information on land, water and ecosystems Providing global and regional agro-ecological information and assessment tools through user friendly interfaces

14. SRP Information Systems: Some Research Questions Which remote sensing and spatial metrics and indicators are most informative What are the limits to remote sensing Water Balance components Soil functional capacity How ICT can be most efficient What is the most effective way to build capacity at regional and national levels?

15. SRP Information Systems: Outcomes Scientifically sound methods, models and tools for systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of data on land & water trends and risks are being used for the planning, implementation, and evaluation of land & water management policy and practice at local to global scales. Land & water surveillance systems are adopted as an integral part of decision making processes on land & water management, resulting in policies and practices that are well targeted A wide range of stakeholders contribute and have access to high quality spatial information and decision support systems

16. Example research interests: Role of storage under CC conditions Monitoring storage reservoirs is crucial Storage can be measured by GRACE, but still controversy and resolution very coarse. If technology can improve to work at finer resolutions, this would be major progress

17. Example research interests: Drought monitoring Drought is multispectral - can be meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, hydrogeological; can be seen as annual rainless period or multiyear low availability of water in reservoirs etc. Combination of data- vegetation conditions, together with soil moisture content, plus water level in reservoirs, etc. Together they will bring a complex set of indicators that we then can translate to drought identification measures - each for its own purpose. This is already happening, but needs more. Finally, we need to relate drought monitoring with forecast.

18. Example application interest:Providing climate info to farmers Working with WaterWatch on piloting climate and irrigation info to famers through mobile phone; Making use of weather info from satellites and crop info Translating to understandable messages for farmers on action to be taken Requires regular and cheap data on weather conditions (temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed, reference ET), as well as early warnings on floods and droughts, NDVI (biomass)

19. Collaboration opportunities? Research in the water sector using RS would benefit from closer collaboration with teams responsible for (weather) satellites. How could we ensure better feedback from water sector on user needs? CRP5 will seek tighter connections needed with NASA, USGS, ESA, JRC and GEMS. CGIAR long-term monitoring sites: provide essential calibration & validation data for RS algorithms and applications