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Modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall-runoff models under non-stationary conditionsPowerPoint Presentation

Modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall-runoff models under non-stationary conditions

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Modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall-runoff models under non-stationary conditions

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Modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall-runoff models under non-stationary conditions

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Modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall-runoff models under non-stationary conditions

CSIRO Water for a healthy country flagship

Jai Vaze, Francis Chiew, Nick Potter, David Post, Cuan Petheram, Julien Lerat, Jin Teng, Biao Wang

22 July 2013, Session Hw15S1, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden

A water information R & D alliance between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO’s Water for a Healthy Country Flagship

Background under non-stationary conditions

- Number of recent studies investigating/highlighting hydro-climate nonstationarity
Evaluation criteria

- Level 1
- Calibrate the hydrological model using complete period
- Calculate the efficiency criteria (NSE, bias, NSEiQ) for each of the 5 sub-periods

- Level 2
- Calibrate the hydrological model using each of the 5 sub-periods
- Calculate the efficiency criteria (NSE, bias, NSEiQ) for the complete period as well as each of the 5 sub-periods

- Level 3
- Improvement of model behaviour/performance in non-stationary conditions
Objective function: NSE-bias of daily streamflow

- Improvement of model behaviour/performance in non-stationary conditions

Data and Models under non-stationary conditions

- Modelling experiments using data from seven catchment
- Axe Creek (Aus)
- Durance (France)
- Ferson (USA)
- Flinders (Aus)
- Gilbert (Aus)
- Kamp-zwettl (Austria)
- Lissbro (Sweden)

- Six conceptual daily rainfall-runoff models
- Sacramento (14)
- SIMHYD (7)
- GR4J (4)
- AWBM (6)
- SMARG (8)
- IHACRES (7)

Changes in dominant hydrological processes under non-stationary conditions(during long dry spells)

[Petheram et al., MODSIM, 2011]

Axe Creek catchment

- Changing rainfall-runoff relationship.
- Interception activities (like farm dams) intercepting proportionally more water during long dry spells.
- Reduced surface water and groundwater connectivity during long dry spells.
- Most rainfall filling the empty groundwater store post 1997.

IAHS Gothenburg HW15S1 | Jai Vaze |

[Vaze et al., 2010, Journal of Hydrology] under non-stationary conditions

Axe Creek catchment – GR4JP=5143, Q=722

P=4199, Q=473

P=4867, Q=552

P=3872, Q=258

P=3318, Q=35

Catchment area = 236.9 km2

Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.

1973-1979

1980-1986

1987-1993

1994-2000

2001-2007

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Rc=0.14

Rc=0.11

Rc=0.11

Rc=0.07

Rc=0.01

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 134 km under non-stationary conditions2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment - AWBMp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 134 km under non-stationary conditions2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment – GR4Jp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 134 km under non-stationary conditions2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment – IHACRESp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 134 km under non-stationary conditions2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment – Sacramentop2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 134 km under non-stationary conditions2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment – Simhydp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 134 km under non-stationary conditions2

Growing urbanisation of the catchment:

1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%

Ferson catchment – SMARGp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 236.9 km under non-stationary conditions2

Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.

Axe Creek catchment - AWBMp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 236.9 km under non-stationary conditions2

Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.

Axe Creek catchment – GR4Jp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 236.9 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 236.9 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 236.9 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 236.9 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 2170 km under non-stationary conditions2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment - AWBMp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 2170 km under non-stationary conditions2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment – GR4Jp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 2170 km under non-stationary conditions2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment - IHACRESp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 2170 km under non-stationary conditions2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment - Sacramentop2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 2170 km under non-stationary conditions2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment - Simhydp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 2170 km under non-stationary conditions2

Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers

Durance catchment - SMARGp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1912 km under non-stationary conditions2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Flinders catchment - AWBMp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1912 km under non-stationary conditions2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Flinders catchment – GR4Jp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1912 km under non-stationary conditions2

The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.

Flinders catchment - IHACRESp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1912 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1912 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1912 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1906.5 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1906.5 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1906.5 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1906.5 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1906.5 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 1906.5 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 621.8 km under non-stationary conditions2

increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.

Kamp-Zwettl catchment - AWBMp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 621.8 km under non-stationary conditions2

increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.

Kamp-Zwettl catchment – GR4Jp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 621.8 km under non-stationary conditions2

increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.

Kamp-Zwettl catchment - IHACRESp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 621.8 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 621.8 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 621.8 km under non-stationary conditions2

p2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 97 km under non-stationary conditions2

In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one.

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment - AWBMp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 97 km under non-stationary conditions2

In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one.

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment – GR4Jp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 97 km under non-stationary conditions2

In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one.

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment - IHACRESp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 97 km under non-stationary conditions2

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment - Sacramentop2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 97 km under non-stationary conditions2

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment - Simhydp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Catchment area = 97 km under non-stationary conditions2

There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.

Lissbro catchment - SMARGp2

p3

p4

p5

p1

Complete

NSE

Bias

NSEiQ

Summary under non-stationary conditions

- Which catchments are easier to model and which are hard
- Ferson (USA), Kamp-zwettl (Austria), Axe Creek (Aus), Lissbro (Sweden)

- What can be the reason and what’s the way to overcome this
- Durance (France)
- Flinders (Aus)
- Gilbert (Aus)

Thankyou under non-stationary conditions

- Jai VazePrincipal Research Scientist
- CSIRO Land and Water
- t+61 2 6246 5871
- EJai.Vaze@csiro.au
- whttp://www.csiro.au/people/Jai.Vaze.html

CSIRO Land and water

A water information R & D alliance between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO’s Water for a Healthy Country Flagship