Exercising a Large Scale Emergency: Exercise Te Ripahapa – the South Island Alpine Fault.

1. Exercising a Large Scale Emergency: Exercise Te Ripahapa – the South Island Alpine Fault.

2. Who are we? • James Thompson • Team Leader Canterbury CDEM Group office • EOC Manager Sept 2010 & Feb 2011 • Exercise Te Ripahapa Coordinator • Tom Robinson • MScGeology and Geophysics • PhD candidate, University of Canterbury

3. Exercise Te Ripahapa • South Island Emergency Operations / Coordination Centre exercise • Tier 3 on the National Exercise Programme framework – Intra-CDEM Group • Canterbury CDEM Group was the lead for exercise development • University of Canterbury developed the scenario • Occurred on the 29th of May 2013

4. If someone has ever said “that will never happen” it probably will....exercise worst case scenarios including facilities, hazards and personnel... Sept 2010

5. Exercise Scenario Challenges • “That’s not real” / “It doesn’t feel real” • “That would not happen” • Exercise Control not managing information requests or times tasks are completed in • When exercising we need to make it as real as possible

6. Timeline of Events – Sept 2010 CCC pack up all EOC material in preparation for shift to new building Group Controller and CCC staff member on leave Regional Manager and Ops Manager to Wellington for course Landslip on Main Supply Route for Canterbury Snow warning for alternate route Damage to Stop banks of Waimak River CCC old & new buildings damaged – needed to set up in alternate EOC Flood Warning for Waimak River Series of off- shore earthquakes sparking fear of tsunami

7. How to Make it Real? • We wanted a plausible and credible scenario • Had to be science based • Had to consider primary, secondary and tertiary consequences • Had to account for information requests • Get University of Canterbury to help out

8. Earthquake Hazards • Large earthquakes generate series of consequential hazards - these flow on from each other • Known as ‘cascading hazards’ • 2ndary consequences often worse than earthquake: 2004 Indonesia, 2008 China, 2011 Japan, ChCh… Quake Lake Landslide Dambreak Flood EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

9. Cascading Hazards TSUNAMI (I) EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

10. EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

11. Moderating Factors • Secondary consequences are affected (for better or worse) by other external factors • The weather can play a significant role: • Heavy rain post-quake = • more landslides • flooding at damaged stop-banks • remobilise landslide material (debris flows) • fill quake-lakes faster = shorter time to failure… • Snow pre-quake = avalanches… EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

12. Hazard Scenario Development Primary Hazard Alpine Fault Earthquake Secondary Hazards Landsliding, liquefaction… Moderating Factors May weather Tertiary Hazards Quake-lakes, tsunami… … Flooding, glacial issues… Hazard Scenario Ex TeRipahapa EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

13. Earthquake Hazard – Alpine Fault • Fairly well understood… • Last 24 ruptures identified • Occur on average every 329yrs ± 68yrs • Last rupture in 1717 – 295yrs ago • Most have involved majority of the fault line (~400km) • Magnitudes ~8 EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

14. Cascading Hazards By studying similar international EQs & smaller NZ examples, we can estimate 2ndary hazards... Historic earthquakes show link between magnitude and scale of landsliding: Area affected = 10M – 3.46 (±0.46) Total Volume = 101.42M – 11.26 (±0.52) Total Number = 101.27M – 5.45 (±0.46) For an M8 Alpine Fault earthquake therefore: Area affected = 34,600km2 Total Volume = 1.3 Billion m3 Total Number = 51,000 EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

15. Cascading Hazards • Study global landslide statistics • Slope angle, shaking intensity, proximity to streams… • Develop landslide susceptibility map • ‘Randomly’ select location of major landslides • Determine tertiary etc. hazards EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

16. Loss of power & comms to whole South Island; all airports closed; WC & Qtown isolated by road Snow to sea-level across central & southern South Island Power & comms back to central and southern areas Power & comms back to northern areas Large debris flows in central Alps M5.7 Hope Fault Aftershock M6.1 Aftershock near Dunedin Heavy rainfall in central Alps M5.0 Aftershock near Mt Cook Flood threat to ChCh Massive landsliding; 2 landslide tsunami; 16 blocked rivers; extensive liquefaction Collapse of Waimak landslide dam EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

17. Asset Requests • During response, various assets will be utilised • E.g. Helicopters for aerial recon • Need to be incorporated realistically • Compile an inventory of all available assets • Cannot use more than those available • Realistic timings • Preparation time – refuelling, safety checks, availability… • Flight time EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

18. 0930 - Request 1 Helicopter for aerial recon of Arthur’s Pass & Waimakariri Gorge 1200 - Landing Helicopter finishes aerial loop and returns to ChCh Airport 1300 - Request 5 Helicopters for emergency evacuation of Arthur’s Pass township 1400 – Take-off Refuel & safety check completion 1030 – Take-off Refuel & safety check completion. 1230 – Report Findings from recon flight reported to EOC/ECC 1305 – Reassign All confirmed non-emergency helicopter requests cancelled – reassigned to emergency evac 1700 – Evac completion Mission complete – population evacuated to ChCh EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

19. Information Requests • During the response, information will become available through recon, comms etc. • This needs to be represented realistically • E.g. photo for recon, telephone call for comms… • Used example photos to represent ‘real’ photos from recon flights • Used external personnel to telephone information EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

20. Road Blockages Witnessed landslides Unreported landslides Landslide dams EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

21. Results • One of the most detailed exercises ever completed in NZ (the world?) • Comments of “this is just like the real thing” • Major strides forward in preparations for a large scale emergency • 2 publications – Scientific report on the scenario (EQ Spectra) & Framework report on the development of scenarios (GNS Misc Series) EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences

22. Questions? tom.robinson@pg.canterbury.ac.nz EMQUAL 2013 – 16 October 2013 UC Geological Sciences