The parties fight back
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The Parties Fight Back. Presidential Party Nomination Systems. “King Caucus”: 1800-1828 Convention System: 1832-1912 Mixed System: 1912-1968 Primary System: 1972-1982? Frontloaded primary system 1982-present. Hunt Commission, 1982. Superdelegates Frontloading.

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The Parties Fight Back

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The parties fight back

The Parties Fight Back

Presidential party nomination systems

Presidential Party Nomination Systems

“King Caucus”: 1800-1828

Convention System: 1832-1912

Mixed System: 1912-1968

Primary System: 1972-1982?

Frontloaded primary system 1982-present

Hunt commission 1982

Hunt Commission, 1982

  • Superdelegates

  • Frontloading

Ap delegate totals march 17 2004

AP Delegate totals, March 17, 2004

(2,162 needed to win nomination)    

Kerry: 2333 Edwards: 530 Dean: 156

Clark: 73

Sharpton: 26 Kucinich: 22 Lieberman: 2 Gephardt: 2

The invisible primary

The Invisible Primary

  • Role for elites

  • Role of money

  • Role of the press

  • Role for voters

Republican nomination 2000

Republican nomination 2000

  • Bush’s money

    • April 1999: $6 million

    • July 1999: $36 million

    • December 1999: $70 million

  • Closest competitor: McCain

    • July 1999: $6 million

    • December 1999: $15 million



Michigan Gov. John Engler (R)

Oklahoma Gov. Frank A. Keating

Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R)

Conn. Gov. John G. Rowland (R

Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci

Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R)

Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R)

Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R)

R.I. Gov. Lincoln C. Almond

La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R)

Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R)

Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R)

Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore II

N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki

Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R)

Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R)

Wis. Gov. Tommy Thompson

Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R)

Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R)

Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R)

Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R)

Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R)

Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)

Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R)

Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R)

W.Va. Gov. Cecil H. Underwood

N.J. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman


Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)

Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R)

Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R)


NM Governor Gary Johnson


UT Gov. Mike Levitt


Miss. Gov. Fordice

& Endorsements…

Democratic nomination 2000

Democratic nomination 2000

  • Bradley:

    OR: John Kitzhaber

Where are we now

Where are we now?

  • Invisible primary will start December ’06

  • Has it started already?

Frontrunner status

Frontrunner status?

  • Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)

    • Current cash on hand: $17,101,626

  • Time (2/20, Tumulty) reports that big Republican donors "seem to be settling" on McCain…”

Possible contenders

John Edwards

Howard Dean

Hillary Clinton

Rod Blagojevich

Janet Napolitano

Bill Richardson

Tom Vilsack

Evan Bayh

Barack Obama

Bill Frist

Rudy Giuliani

John McCain

George Allen

Mitt Romney

Goerge Pataki

Chuck Hagel

Possible contenders?

Rules of the 2008 race

Rules of the 2008 race

  • Frontloading

  • PR vs. the Unit Rule (Democratic party)

  • Campaign Finance

Campaign finance

Campaign Finance

  • Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections

    • All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year

    • If you take the federal money, you abide by overall and state by state spending restrictions (about $44 million in 2004)

  • Public financing ($74 million in 2004) for presidential campaigns (with limits on campaign spending)

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