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Ofgem Information Request on availability of NTS Exit Flexibility Capacity

Ofgem Information Request on availability of NTS Exit Flexibility Capacity. Ritchard Hewitt Gas Code Development Manager National Grid Transmission 7 th February 2008. Background. Development of 0116v – extensive analysis of Flat and Flex products.

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Ofgem Information Request on availability of NTS Exit Flexibility Capacity

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  1. Ofgem Information Request on availability of NTS Exit Flexibility Capacity Ritchard Hewitt Gas Code Development Manager National Grid Transmission 7th February 2008

  2. Background • Development of 0116v – extensive analysis of Flat and Flex products. • Analysis in 2006 presented to EOWG in June confirms 22mcm available flexibility. • Physically Firm product suitable for DNO demonstration in their Safety Case. • Ofgem Information Request received 1st Nov 07 • Extensive analysis (175 man days) focussed on Flex • Information Request asks eight questions • Subsequent slides look at the answers given to each question in turn.

  3. Core assumptions • Size of Network • Based on current 10YS • Gas Days - peak, Day 1, and Day 68 • Gas Years – 2007/8, 2010/11, and 2016/17 • Distribution of Supplies • Balanced • Varying levels of IOG supplies • Heavy East Coast Supplies • Delivery Profile • Front and backloading • Geographic distribution of Demand • Balanced

  4. Ofgem Question One • How much flexibility capacity there will be on the NTS based on National Grid Transmission’s current investment plans? • Answer – Depends on the assumptions made. However scenarios currently indicate 22mcm.

  5. Ofgem Question Two • How this level of flexibility capacity would change if there are any changes in these plans? • Answer: • Changes to Core assumptions including: • Changes in IOG flows in proportion to demand level • High East Coast Flows relative to demand level would reduce available flex

  6. Ofgem Question Three • National Grid Transmission’s assessment of the demand for flexibility capacity from the DNs, storage sites and large Users • Answer: GDNs: • Flexibility Capacity Request from GDNs – 2007 OCS Process • Final Flexibility Capacity Allocation to GDNs – 2007 OCS Process * = The allocation for 2011/12 is indicative only and at this stage only reflects NGG’s commitment for 2010/11

  7. Ofgem Question Three • National Grid Transmission’s assessment of the demand for flexibility capacity from the DNs, storage sites and large Users • Answer: Other Loads • Increasing trend at CCGTs due to increase in offtakes over next 10 years (12GW) and increase in trend of usage. • Potential effect of Renewables on Gas plant load profiles • Storage effect could be both positive and negative • Recent trends in Flex usage give an indication of increased use.

  8. Ofgem Question Four • National Grid Transmission’s assessment of what would reduce or increase NTS flexibility capacity • Answer: • The geographic balance of Demand and of Supply • Uniformity of flows at entry • Change to pressure commitments

  9. Ofgem Question Five • The likely development of the availability of flexibility capacity on a regional and zonal basis. • Answer: • Milford Haven pipeline should release more flex capability in South Wales. • Reduced Flows from St Fergus could release more flex in Scotland • Net position of approximately 2mcm between 2007 and 2016/17

  10. Ofgem Question Six • The potential causes, if any, of future scarcity of flexibility capacity • GDN OCS Bookings • Aggregate 2007 OCS requests for 2011/12 are beyond current assessment of available Flexibility.

  11. Ofgem Question Seven • The probability, location and potential timing of any such scarcity developing in practice. • Answer: • Most recent OCS process would indicate scarcity in 2011/12.

  12. Ofgem Question Eight • What Actions would National Grid Transmission take ... were a flexibility capacity constraint to arise …... In particular, what would the magnitude of the consequences for end users …. be should the risk(s) materialise? • Answer: • In Planning timescales • Scale back requests by an equal proportion • In Operational timeframe • Require adherence to NExA terms • Interruption of loads • OCM “locational” actions • Emergency Interruption/load shedding

  13. Questions

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