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NTS Flexibility Capacity Product – options for refinement. NTS Transmission Workstream 2nd February 2006 (nks/060202_Trans_Wstream_Exp_flex_product_v0p1 01/02/06). Background and presentation objective.

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Nts flexibility capacity product options for refinement

NTS Flexibility Capacity Product – options for refinement

NTS Transmission Workstream

2nd February 2006

(nks/060202_Trans_Wstream_Exp_flex_product_v0p1 01/02/06)


Background and presentation objective
Background and presentation objective

… this presentation draws heavily on a presentations given to the Enduring Offtakes Workgroup on 18th January and 1st February

… it has been structured to provide further explanation of the “expanding flexibility product” and “single product” models explored at those meetings

… some examples of DN offtake “throughput” and “flexibility” experience are presented

… views of workstream members are sought to inform timely policy development


Presentation structure
Presentation Structure

  • The concepts

    • Recap of “flexibility utilisation” assessment

    • Expanding flexibility model

    • Single product model

  • Example throughput/flexibility utilisations

  • Areas for consideration

    • Does either approach address current TANIF weaknesses?

    • Implications of either approach

      • To User bookings? (inc DN incentives)

      • To NTS investment considerations?

      • To NTS operations?

… either approach will not be a panacea

… but is either worthy of further consideration and development?


The concepts flexibility utilisation assessment principle

Offtake profile

Flexibility utilisation = 3

06:00

22:00

06:00

The concepts: “flexibility utilisation” assessment principle

Flexibility utilisation = cumulative offtake to 22:00 – (2/3) of daily flow

Average flow rate

Throughput = 24*Av flow rate =

36

Product designed to reflect linepack impact at 22:00; time of maximum system stress


The concepts towards a new industry framework tanif user booking requirements

Flexibility utilisation

NTS Exit Flexibility Capacity booking

3

0

36

Demand – end of day flow

(throughput)

NTS

Flat

Capacity

booking

The concepts: Towards a New Industry Framework (TANIF) User booking requirements

… expectation Users will book NTS “Flat” and “Flexibility” capacity levels required to satisfy all their requirements and to provide investment signals

… may require users to consider both their highest throughput and highest flexibility utilisation requirements

Feasible range

of

“flat” and “flex” offtakes

(avoiding overruns)

X (36,3)


The concepts expanding flexibility product
The concepts: Expanding flexibility product

… many users are unlikely to have coincident peak flexibility and daily offtake requirements

… this may force individual users to “over book” a combination of “flat” and “flexibility” capacity

… so there might be scope for contemplating a “Flexibility” entitlement that expands when a user is not fully utilising his “Flat” holding


The concept user booking requirements in an expanding flex world

Extension of feasible range derived from transmission:flexibility substitution

Flexibility utilisation

NTS Exit Flexibility Capacity “peak” booking

Feasible range

of

“flat” and “flex” offtakes

(avoiding overruns)

0

Demand – end of day flow

NTS

Flat

Capacity

booking

The concept: User booking requirements in an “expanding flex world”

… expectation Users will book NTS “Flat” and “Flexibility” capacity levels required to satisfy their requirements on “peak throughput” day

… unused transmission capacity “automatically converted” into extra Flexibility availability based on a transmission:flexibility substitution ratio


The concept the expanding flexibility product may facilitate efficient user booking

Line derived by assuming a [4.5 : 1] transmission : flexibility substitution ratio

The concept:the “expanding flexibility product” may facilitate efficient User booking?

Retains the concept of separate products but Users book a “requirement under peak transmission conditions” ie a flat and flex combination but have increased flex availability off-peak arising from transmission/flexibility substitutability

Flexibility

entitlement

Flexibility booking

Peak throughput booking

Transmission throughput

User flex entitlement = flex booking + [2/9] (peak throughput booking – throughput)


The concept single product model
The concept: “Single product model” flexibility substitution ratio

… the preceding model still requires users to book 2 separate products

… a further simplification might be to contemplate a single “transmission capability” parameter to determine a single “product” booking

… assessment of product utilisation made in respect of two dimensions:

throughput against single “transmission capability” booking

flex usage against a derived flex “entitlement”


The concept developing a simple single parameter booking regime

Single parameter flexibility substitution ratio

-transmission capability booking

The concept: Developing a simple single parameter booking regime?

Flexibility

entitlement

Utilisation assessed in two dimensions:

- Throughput

- Flexibility

Feasible range of

throughput and flexibility utilisation

throughput

User flex entitlement = [2/9] (transmission capability booking – throughput)


Example throughput flexibility combinations
Example throughput/flexibility combinations flexibility substitution ratio

… the following three slides provide three usage pattern graphics for 3 DN offtake

… but we must be wary of data issues and interpretation

Nothing in what follows should be taken as implying that the DNs are in any way acting in “breach” of current UNC obligations:

DNs are entitled to book OCS flexibility requirements at levels below their individual “peak requirements”.


Offtake 1 (June 2005 to November 2005) flexibility substitution ratio

Flat Cap Booking

Flow Flex Utilisation

Flex Cap Booking

Upper 4.5:1 Envelope

0.00

0.00

Throughput


Offtake 2 (June 2005 to November 2005) flexibility substitution ratio

Flat cap booking

Flex cap booking

Flow Flex Utilisation

Upper 4.5 : 1 envelope

0.00

0.00

Throughput


Offtake 3 (June 2005 to November 2005) flexibility substitution ratio

0.00

Flat cap booking

Flow Flex

Flex cap booking

Upper 4.5 : 1 envelope

0.00

Demand



Some are pretty close to being within feasible range
… some are pretty close to being within “feasible range”

Offtake 4 (June 2005 to November 2005)

Flow Flex Utilisation

Flat cap booking

Flex cap booking

4.5 : 1 line

0.00

0.00

Throughput


Some datasets might have needed substituted data
… some datasets might have needed “substituted data” range”

Offtake 5 (June 2005 to November 2005)

Flow Flex Utilisation

Flat cap booking

Flex cap booking

4.5 : 1 line

0.00

0.00

Throughput


Some might illustrate increased flat and flex requirements
… some might illustrate increased “flat” and “flex” requirements

Offtake 6 (June 2005 to November 2005)

Flow Flex Utilisation

Flat cap booking

Flex cap booking)

4.5 : 1 line

0.00

0.00

Throughput


… the Enduring Offtake Working Group have asked for data about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

… whilst data is being gathered it might be worth thinking about some of the “theory” associated with transmission/flexibility feasible ranges


Thinking about transmission flexibility substitutability 1

Offtake profile about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

Flow rate

24*MHQ = SOQ

MHQ

06:00

22:00

06:00

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (1)

For DCs the current bundled NTS Exit Capacity Product enables access to any flow rates beneath the implied MHQ envelope

DCs effectively have access to a maximum of 2/9 SOQ “flexibility”

This maximum flex usage (2/9 of SOQ) occurs at 2/3 SOQ throughput


Thinking about transmission flexibility substitutability 2

x/3 about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

x/3

x/3

x/3

x/3

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (2)

Maximum theoretical flexibility taken below SOQ can be easily established

Offtake profile

Flow rate

24*MHQ = SOQ

MHQ

Average flow rate

06:00

22:00

06:00

Thus maximum flex usage is 2/3 of ( SOQ – actual daily offtake)


Thinking about transmission flexibility substitutability 3

Slope of line = -2/3 about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (3)

So the theoretical transmission/flexibility envelope associated with Direct Connects can be established from a number of considerations:

Flexibility utilisation

SOQ

Transmission throughput


Thinking about transmission flexibility substitutability 4

Offtake profile about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

Flow rate

Max flow

Average flow rate

06:00

22:00

06:00

Flexibility utilisation = 1/3 throughput

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (4)

At lower demand levels “flexibility utilisation” is also “capped”

2/3 max flow rate


Thinking about transmission flexibility substitutability 5

Slope of line = 1/3 about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (5)

So working along the throughput axis the max flexibility utilisation can be visualised as follows:

Flexibility utilisation

SOQ

Transmission throughput


Thinking about transmission flexibility substitutability 6
Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (6) about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

So the upper envelope of the theoretical transmission/flexibility envelope associated with Direct Connects can be visualised as follows:

Flexibility utilisation

2/9 of SOQ

2/3

SOQ

SOQ

Transmission throughput


Thinking about transmission flexibility substitutability 7

Flexibility utilisation about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

2/9 of SOQ

2/3

SOQ

SOQ

Transmission throughput

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (7)

.. and the full envelope could be established as:


Assessment of the two options 1
Assessment of the two options (1) about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

  • Addressing TANIF “weaknesses”

    • Complexity?

    • Accurate user commitment?

    • Useful information to inform NTS investment?

    • Other areas?


Assessment of the two options 2
Assessment of the two options (2) about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

  • Implications of either approach

    • To User bookings? (inc DN incentives)

    • To NTS investment considerations?

    • To NTS operations?

  • Downsides of approach?

  • … probably better than TANIF approach

    … but which is the better?

    … and how does it compare with “status quo” or other alternatives?


    Next steps
    Next steps about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points

    Does the Transmission Workstream see merit in further consideration of

    the two product (expanding flexibility model) ?

    the single booking parameter derivative of the above?

    Views are sought to inform the next EOWG to be held next week, 8th February

    Alternatively are there other approaches that should be considered at this time?


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