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Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. Sangwon Suh Centre of Environmental Science (CML) Leiden University, the Netherlands. Contents. Truncation in LCA. Hybrid input-output LCA. Case Study. Conclusion. Capital. Raw. Raw. Capital. Capital. Capital. Capital. Raw. Energy. Energy. Raw.

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Hybrid life cycle assessment

Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment

Sangwon Suh

Centre of Environmental Science (CML)

Leiden University, the Netherlands


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Contents

Truncation in LCA

Hybrid input-output LCA

Case Study

Conclusion


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Capital

Raw

Raw

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Raw

Energy

Energy

Raw

Capital

Raw

Raw

Energy

Capital

Capital

Raw

Energy

Energy

Raw

Capital

Raw

Energy

Capital

Capital

Raw

Raw

Raw

Energy

Capital

Raw

Energy

Capital

Raw

Energy

Capital

Energy

Raw

Energy

Capital

Raw

Capital

Energy

Energy

Capital

Raw

Capital

Capital

Raw

Capital

Raw

Raw

Raw

Energy

Raw

Energy

Capital

Energy

Energy

Raw

Raw

Raw

Raw

Capital

Raw

Energy

Energy

Energy

Capital

Capital

Energy

Raw

Raw

Capital

Capital

Capital

Energy

Energy

Raw

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Raw

Raw

Raw B

Raw A

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Raw

Raw

Energy

Raw

Energy

Capital

Capital

Raw

Raw

Energy

Raw

Raw

Raw

Energy

Capital

Capital

Energy

Raw

Capital

Raw

Raw

Raw

Capital

Capital

Energy

Manuf.

Capital

Raw

Energy

Raw

Energy

Raw

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Raw

Raw

Raw

Energy

Capital

Energy

Energy

Energy

Capital

Capital

Energy

Use

Raw

Capital

Capital

Raw

Capital

Raw

Raw

Capital

Energy

Capital

Energy

Capital

Capital

Raw

Energy

Raw

Raw

Energy

Raw

Raw

Energy

Raw

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Raw

Capital

Raw

Capital

Raw

Disp.

Raw

Energy

Capital

Capital

Energy

Raw

Energy

Raw

Capital

Energy

Raw

Capital

Capital

Raw

Capital

Capital

Raw

Raw

Raw

Energy

Raw

Energy

Capital

Energy

Raw

Energy

Raw

Energy

Capital

Capital

Capital

Raw

Raw

Raw

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Raw

Raw

Raw

Raw

Raw

Raw

Energy

Capital

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Capital

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Raw

Raw

Raw

Raw

Raw

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Raw

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Raw

Raw

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Raw

Energy

Capital

Energy

Energy

Raw

Raw

Raw

Raw

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Capital

Capital


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Truncation in Process LCA

Estimated

truncation

66%

9~52%

Reference

Lave et al., 1995

Lenzen, 2001

Method

1st order upstream

3rd order (energy)


Hybrid life cycle assessment

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

[Lave et al., 1995]

[Lenzen., 2001]


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Input-output based LCI

[Donhomae, 1994]

[Lave et al., 1995]

[Hendrickson et al, 1998]


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Activated carbon and charcoal

Alkali metals

Alumina

Aluminum chloride

Aluminum compounds

Aluminum hydroxide (alumina trihydrate)

Aluminum oxide

Aluminum sulfate

Alums

Ammonia alum

Ammonium chloride, hydroxide, and molybdate

Ammonium compounds, except for fertilizer

Ammonium perchlorate

Ammonium thiosulfate

Barium compounds

Bauxite, refined

Beryllium oxide

Bleach (calcium hypochlorite), industrial

Bleach (sodium hypochlorite), industrial

Bleaches, industrial

Bleaching powder, industrial

Borax (sodium tetraborate)

Boric acid

Boron compounds, not produced at mines

Borosilicate

Brine

Bromine, elemental

Calcium carbide, chloride, and hypochlorite

Calcium compounds, inorganic

Calcium metal

Carbide

Catalysts, chemical

Cerium salts

Cesium metal

Charcoal, activated

SIC 2819-

Industrial inorganic

chemicals, NEC

182 items


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Why Hybrid ?

Meso/Macro

Economic Model

Engineering Model

Complete

Aggregated

General

Accurate

Disaggregated

Partial

Integrated hybrid LCA


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment

[Moriguchi et al., 1993]

Utilized Japanese input-output table and process data

for life cycle CO2 emission of automobile


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Tired hybrid model

Input-output analysis

Process analysis

Bullard et al. (1978)

Engelenburg et al. (1994)

Moriguchi et al (1993)


Input output based hybrid model

Input-output based hybrid model

Joshi (1999)

Gibbson et al. (1982)

+ Use

+ Disposal


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Integrated Hybrid LCI modeling

Integrating the computational structure of

LCI [Heijungs & Suh, 2002] : Physical unit/operation time

IOA [Stone, et al., 1963] : Monetary unit/total production

Full interaction between process and economy


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Steel

Steam

0.5 MJ

1 kg CO2/kg

steel

4 kg CO2/

MJ Steam

0.25 kg

1 kg

0.5 MJ

Production of Toaster

2 kg CO2/unit

toaster production

1 unit

Use of Toaster

0.001 kg CO2/

piece of bread toasted

1 unit

Disposal of toaster

0.5 kg CO2/unit

toaster disposal

Integrated Hybrid LCI modeling


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Integrated Hybrid LCI modeling


Hybrid life cycle assessment

LC CO2 Contribution by processes


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Integrated Hybrid LCI modeling


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Pretreatment of IO table for integration


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Hybrid matrix


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Steam

0.263$ Sub Bitumen

Coal mining

0.031$ Ind.Bld

Ind. Installat’n


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Case Study

Linoleum (a flooring material by Forbo BV)

  • - Baseline (Existing LCI)

  • - Hybrid (Cut-offs and capitals : 38 links)

  • IO LCI (Miscellaneous floor coverings)


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Percent change

0%

5% ~ 73% (avg. 18%)

-85% ~ 124% (avg. 3%)

Baseline

Hybrid Max

IO LCI


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Strengths

Weakness

Model

Hybrid

LCA

Process specific

Encompassing

system boundary

Process specific

Encompassing

system boundary

Process specific

Truncation

Process LCA

Encompassing

system boundary

Aggregation

Input-Output

LCA

Approaches in Life Cycle Inventory Modelling


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Uncertainties in LCI


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Uncertainty analyses

Perturbation Analysis (Heijungs and Suh, 2002)

Monte Carlo simulation (Hendry, 1984, Huijlbregts, 2001)

Changes in results due to change in a parameter

Location and dispersion of the results due to

simultaneous changes in all parameters


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Monte Carlo simulation

Computation of LCI

E: Life Cycle Inventory

B: Environmental intervention matrix

A: Technology matrix

y: Functional unit


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Monte Carlo simulation

Basic concept

Randomly

distributed

noise on

Environmental

intervention matrix

Randomly

distributed

noise on

Technology matrix

Statistical property, location and dispersion


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Model building

Steps for Monte Carlo simulation

Data gathering

Extraction of

distribution

properties

Coding and

running

a program

Analyse

the results


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Monte Carlo simulation

Model building

Process LCA

Input-output LCA

Hybrid LCA


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Process LCA(Gorree et al., 2001)

Input-output LCA(Suh and Huppes, 2001)

Hybrid LCA (Suh and Huppes, 2001)

Monte Carlo simulation

Data gathering

Linoleum

1996 US. IO data and environmental statistics

640900 Hard surface floor coverings, n.e.c.

38 missing flows linked with IO table


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Considered uncertainty

IO part

Aggregation Uncertainty

Uncertainty due to data age

Source data uncertainty in IO table

Source data uncertainty in environmental data

Process part

Uncertainty due to data age

Source data uncertainty in technology matrix

Source data uncertainty in environmental data


Hybrid life cycle assessment

1

10

95

496 X 496

Monte Carlo simulation

Extraction of distribution property

Ex) Aggregation Uncertainty in IO LCA


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Monte Carlo simulation

Data preparation

Ex) Aggregation Uncertainty in IO LCA


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Narrow distribution

but relatively underscored

Wider than process analysis but

much narrower than IO results

and closer to the target value

More provable to

contain the ‘true values’

but rather wider distribution


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Accuracy

vs.

precision


Hybrid life cycle assessment

APPLAUSE


Hybrid life cycle assessment

‘Which is the better’ arguments between

process LCA and IO LCA

Two sides of a coin: Accuracy vs. precision

Process LCA

High precision but less accuracy

IO LCA

High accuracy but less precision


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Conclusions

Hybrid approach generally solves the problem of system boundary

in process-LCA conserving process-specificity as much as possible

In engineering terms, pure process-LCA is precise but lacks

accuracy, while pure IO-LCA is more likely cover the true value

but lacks precision.

Hybrid LCA combines the two and improves the accuracy while

maintaining the overall precision.


Hybrid life cycle assessment

Thank You


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