PART II: BET_EF installation

1. PART II: BET_EF installation

2. Install BET_EF BET_EF requires the installation of the Installer 3.1 and the .NET framework (checked automatically and included in the installation package)

3. Run BET_EF… and BET_UPGRADE …ready to be run… … and to browse the MANUAL

4. BET_EF and BET_UPGRADE • BET_UPGRADE package • upgrading and reviewing the ET settings • input of volcano information, past data and monitoring parameters • … Load information Update & review • BET_EF package • it runs the Event Tree • Probabilities distribution • Probability maps • …

6. BET_UPGRADE: Recover function BET_UPGRADE automatically saves all the previous loading processes (both complete or partial)… all of them can be “recovered” and upgraded

7. BET_UPGRADE: Goal Non monitoring info Monitoring info Other info In BET_UPGRADE, we input NODE BY NODE: • Volcanological information 2. Past data 3. Monitoring parameters 4. Past monitored episodes 5. Name, location, maps, etc. for the visualization of output probabilities (when necessary) • Note that: • each input helps, but is not necessary: if some information is not available, the epistemic uncertainty increases, but probability estimations are still possible • Monitoring info are not present at all nodes

8. NODE 1UNREST

9. BET_UPGRADE: Node 1 Probability of UNREST in the next time window • Focus: • Temporal information for all processes (definition of the forecasting window) • Definition and detection of unrest episodes • Possible inputs: • Volcanological information 2. Past data 3. Monitoring parameters

10. Node 1: Models and Past data Volcanological information: Q (best guess) and L (confidence)from a model that forecasts the next unrest episode • Past data: • Historical record of unrest episodes: Nu “successes” on N “measures” • - Length of the time windows • - number of windows without unrest episodes (N, white blocks) • - number of windows in which episodes start(Nu, red blocks) • NB windows containing ongoing unrest episodes(yellow blocks)are not counted

11. Node 1: Monitoring Monitoring parameters: Number (main form) and definition of each one of them (monitoring form) - Name, description - Symbol & units - lower and upper thresholds - relationship

12. Node 1: Main form Information is input ONLY WHEN AVALABLE … and the preview of the distribution can be visualized Monitoring Volcanological info Past data

13. Node 1: Monitoring forms Monitoring

14. NODE 2MAGMA (movement of magma bodies)

15. BET_UPGRADE: Node 2 Probability of MAGMA given an unrest • Focus: • Detection of magma • Usually the less constrained process • Monitoring parameters to track the presence of magma (during an ongoing unrest) • Input information: • Volcanological information 2. Past data 3. Monitoring parameters 4. Past monitored episodes

16. Node 2: Models and Past data Volcanological information: Q (best guess) and L (confidence)from a model that forecasts the occurrence of magmatic unrest among unrest episodes • Past data: • Historical record of magmatic unrest episodes: Nm and Nu • - Nu: number of unrest episodes (less or equal to node 1) • - Nm: number of magmatic unrest episodes

17. Node 2: Monitoring Monitoring parameters: Number (main form) and definition of each one of them (monitoring form) - Name, description - Symbol & units - lower and upper thresholds - relationship - weight

18. Node 2: Past monitored events Past monitored events: 1) Number of monitored past UNREST (in the main form) 2) outcome, i.e., magmatic or not (Yes/No) 3) measures during the unrest

19. Node 2: Main form Monitoring Past Mon. Volcanological info Past data

20. Node 2: Monitoring and Past mon. forms Monitoring Past Mon.

21. NODE 3ERUPTION

22. BET_UPGRADE: Node 3 Probability of ERUPTION given a magmatic unrest • Focus: • Forecasting of eruptions • Monitoring parameters to recognize an incoming eruption (during an ongoing magmatic unrest) • Input information: • Volcanological information 2. Past data 3. Monitoring parameters 4. Past monitored episodes

23. Node 3: Models and past data Volcanological information: Q (best guess) and L (confidence)from a model that forecasts the occurrence of eruptions among magmatic unrest episodes • Past data: • Historical record of magmatic unrest episodes: Ne and Nm (or Nu) • - Ne: number of eruptions • - Nm: number of magmatic unrest episodes • in alternative… • - Nu: number of known unrest episodes

24. Node 3: Monitoring and Past mon. episodes Monitoring: As in node 2, with the goal of forecasting eruptions Past monitored events: As in node 2, but only monitored magmatic unrest episodes

25. Node 3: Main form Monitoring Past Mon. Volcanological info Past data

26. Node 3: Monitoring forms Monitoring Past Mon.

27. NODE 4VENT

28. BET_UPGRADE: Node 4 Probability of a SPECIFIC VENT for the incoming eruption • Focus: • Spatial problem: number and geometry of possible locations are chosen by the user • Localization of monitoring among the parameters at node 1,2 and 3 • Monitoring do not control completely the short-term probability • Input information: • Volcanological information 2. Past data 3. Monitoring parameters… of nodes 1,2 & 3

29. Node 4: Spatial definition UTM or degrees Volcano coords Visualization map Volcano’s Geometry: central or grid

30. Node 4: Spatial definition UTM or degrees Volcano coords Visualization map Volcano’s Geometry: central or grid

31. Node 4: Models, Past data and Monitoring Volcanological information: Qi (best guess) and Li(confidence)for each vent location from a model that forecasts the position of the next vent Past data: Historical eruption with known vent position: Ne (in the i-th location) Monitoring: All parameters defined at nodes 1, 2 and 3 may be localized to help spatially forecast the impending eruption… … there is not a specific list of monitoring parameters at node 4!!!

32. Node 4: Models and Past data … or loaded from a file for all VENTS Volcanological info Past data

33. NODE 5SIZE

34. BET_UPGRADE: Node 5 Probability of a SPECIFIC SIZE for the incoming eruption • Focus: • Energetic/scenario approaches • Number of size groups and their definition are not predefined, but are defined by the user • Monitoring is not considered • Input information: • Volcanological information 2. Past data

35. Node 5: Groups, Models and Past data The number of groups and their definition must be defined by the user with a practical approach: - link with models for outcomes (lava flows, tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, …) - effusive / explosive / scenarios - VEIs - … Volcanological information: Qi (best guess) and Li(confidence)for each size/type from a model that forecasts the size/type of the next eruption Past data: Historical eruption with known size/type

36. Node 5: Groups, Models and Past data number of groups Volcanological info Past data

37. BET_UPGRADE summary FINISHED!!!! BET_EPGRADE summarizes all of the input information… …and sets all files to run BET_EF