Measuring Hard-to-Count Migration Populations: Importance, Definitions, and Categories

1. Measuring Hard-to-Count Migration Populations: Importance, Definitions, and Categories Jason Schachter United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics Geneva, Switzerland, October 17-19

2. Goals of Project • Suitland Working Group Task Force • Relevance of hard-to-count migrants in different countries • Compare definitions of hard-to-count migrants at the national and international level • Factors that influence the data collection of hard-to-count migrant populations

3. In Relation to Household Surveys • To what extent do countries use surveys to measure hard-to-count migrants. • How can household surveys be used to measure these populations • Sampling rare and elusive populations • What survey questions are needed to identify hard-to-count migrants

4. Who are Hard-to-Count Migrants? • Short-term migrants • Circular migrants • Irregular migrants • Transit migrants • Trafficked person • Refugees • Asylum seekers

5. UNECE Questionnaire on International Migration Statistics • Questions from Section 2: “Practices/Methodologies used to estimate “difficult to measure”international migrant groups” • Conducted in 2008 • UNECE and other countries • 49 responses

6. Questions on… • Relevance attributed to each group • If measurement is an issue (i.e. data are not available or are not sufficiently accurate) • If NSO is responsible for producing counts/estimates on these populations and methodology used • Data source and definition used to identify group • Information on if other government agency/ institutions provide estimates

7. Short-Term Migrants • “A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least 3 months but less than a year (12 months), except in cases where the movement to that country is for purpose of recreation, holiday, visits to friends or relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage. For purposes of international migration statistics, the country of usual residence of short-term migrants is considered to be the country of destination during the period they spend in it.” (UN 1998)

8. Questionnaire Results • Most frequently collected • Fair amount of deviation from the international definition • In the few cases minimum length of stay (in and/or out of the country) was mentioned, large amount of variation (e.g. two weeks to six months). • Better adherence to maximum duration of stay (12 months) • Some consider intendedresidence while others use actual residence • Purposeof movement rarely included

9. Circular Migrants • “Circular Migration is the fluid movement of people between countries, including temporary or more permanent movement which, when it occurs voluntarily and is linked to the labour needs of countries of origin and destination, can be beneficial to all involved.” (GFMD 2007)

10. Questionnaire Results • No NSO measured or provided a definition used to identify circular migrants (circa 2008) • By its nature, circular migration is difficult to measure as short-term residence may be subject to little or no administrative recording, particularly if permission to reside has already been granted in the context of a previous stay. • Operationalization: • Duration of stay in destination country • Frequency of repeated movements • Purpose of migration

11. Irregular/Undocumented Migrants • “Persons in a state other than their own who have not fully satisfied the conditions and requirements set forth by that State to enter, stay, or work in that State's territory.” (ILO 1997)

12. Questionnaire Results • Only four countries provided an operational definition • Romania EC Regulation no. 862/2007, “third-country nationals refused entry to the Member State’s territory at the external border” and “third-country nationals found to be illegally present in the Member State’s territory under national laws relating to immigration.” • Other definitions similar to the international standards • Israel: employment a necessary condition for irregular status.

13. Transit Migrants • “A person who migrates in one country with the intention of seeking the possibility there to emigrate to another country as the country of final destination.” (UNECE 1993)

14. Questionnaire Results • No countries provided a definition or attempt to measure • Operationalization: • repetition of international migration • intention to move onwards • does not necessarily correspond to an actual move

15. Trafficked persons • “The recruitment, transportation, transfer, harbouring or receipt of persons, by the means of threat or use of force or other forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, of deception, of the abuse of power or of a position of vulnerability or of the giving or receiving of payments or benefits to achieve the consent of a person having control over another person, for the purpose of exploitation.” (UN 2000)

16. Smuggling • “The procurement, in order to obtain, directly or indirectly, a financial or other material benefit, of the illegal entry of a person into a state of which he/she is not a national or a permanent resident. Illegal entry means the crossing of borders without complying with the necessary requirements for legal entry into the receiving State.” (UN 2000)

17. Questionnaire Results • Trafficking is restricted to situations in which people are deceived, threatened, or coerced in situations of exploitation • Smuggling implies a migrant voluntarily uses services to circumvent immigration restrictions (not necessarily a victim of deception or exploitation) • Three countries indicated a definition for trafficked migrants • Romania refers to EC Regulation No. 862/2007 • Kyrgyzstan reported a definition close to the international standards • Slovakia counts both foreigners and nationals who declare themselves victims of trafficking, either inside the country or abroad (for nationals)

18. Asylum seekers • “Persons who file an application for asylum in a country other than their own. They remain in the status of asylum-seeker until their application is considered and adjudicated.” (UN 1998)

19. Questionnaire Results • Eleven countries provided definitions • In most cases, as per the international definition, asylum seekers are foreigners who have applied for refugee status and are awaiting a response • Four countries (Canada, Russia, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom) include persons who do not fulfil the requirements of the Geneva Convention, but for whom an expulsion would constitute a serious threat to life or personal safety and/or freedom

20. Refugees • “A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it” (UNHCR, 1967).

21. Questionnaire Results • Almost all countries reported a definition in-line with UNHCR, though some utilize the broader interpretation to include asylum applicants under international protection. • Croatia counts refugees as part of its usual resident population • Palestinian Authority focuses on national refugees living abroad

22. Data Sources • Censuses and population registers, visa and border control data, as well as some household and passenger surveys • Short-term migrants & refugees most frequent • Circular and transit migrants least frequent (almost no cases of either) • Short-term migrants: largest proportion (40%) came from population or administrative registers, while other sources included censuses, border data, visa information, and surveys • Irregular migrants and/or trafficked persons: border control information, police reports, and NGOs

23. Table 1: Number of countries and sources used to provide counts or estimates of hard-to-count migrant groups Note: Countries could provide more than one source per migrant group

24. Relevance of Group and Difficulty of Estimation, All Countries

25. Country-Specific Relevance and Difficulties in Estimation of Irregular Migration

26. Factors that Influence the Difficulty of Measuring Hard-to-Count Migrants • Data issues • Lack of data due to nature of their migration (fewer formalized administrative records; illegal residence) • Data sources lack specific information needed to measure (migration history information; duration of stay ) • Lack of coverage/response for populations of interest (limited population register coverage; higher survey non-response rates)

27. Factors, cont. • Statistical Office might have difficulty accessing administrative data from other national organizations • Data already produced by another organization • Lack of relevance for a country (in terms of size and/or policy)

28. Use of Sample Surveys to Measure Hard-to-Count Migrants • Few countries use sample surveys to derive estimates of hard-to-count migrant populations. • Short-term migrants • Moldova’s labor force survey • Portugal’s emigration survey • United Kingdom’s International Passenger Survey (not a household survey)

29. Sampling Rare and Elusive Populations • Sophisticated sampling techniques can be used to capture rare populations • Probability methods: each sampling unit has an equal chance of being selected • Dual-sampling (disproportionate): locate sampling units with a high proportion of migrants (either using pre-existing data, like a census, or sampling areas to discover them), then oversample in these units • Non-probability methods • Adaptative or snowball techniques • Can suffer from lack of generalizability due to their non-random nature. • Can combine probability and non-probability methods (e.g. initial sample is selected randomly, and then ask for references) to obtain estimates of rare populations.

30. Even if Sampled, Data Quality Concerns Remain! • Lower response rates • Higher levels of item non-response (particularly to more sensitive question like legal status or income) • Potentially differing response rates by mode of survey (e.g. lower response of hard-to-count migrant groups to internet-based surveys) • Impact of language ability on response rates and answers given • Survey attrition (longitudinal) • Imputation rates

31. Examples of Survey Questions to Identify Hard-to-Count Migrant Populations • Even if surveys are not used for estimation, they can be used to identify migrant groups • Based on international defintions, what pieces of information are needed?

32. Short-Term Migrants • Exact duration of stay (in country of residence) or date of entry • For greater clarification: • Purpose of movement • Intent of duration of stay

33. Duration of Stay: Italy LFS (2011) • In what year did you come to live in Italy the first time? • Do you remember the month? • Since that time, have you always been living in Italy? Please exclude travels or holidays away from Italy of a period of time shorter than one year • Since when have you been living in Italy without leaving the Country for one year or more? • Do you remember the month?

34. Intended Duration of Stay: UK International Passenger Survey (2012) How long do you intend to stay in the UK? Under 12 months .................. 1 Up to 2 years ........................ 2 Up to 4 years ........................ 3 Permanently > 4 years .......... 4 Not sure how many years ..... 6 DK, possibly 12 months ........ Purpose of Move: Russian Federation 2010 Census What is the purpose of your arrival to Russia? работа (work) учеба (study) служебная или деловая поездка (official or business trip) лечение (medical treatment) туризм, отдых (tourism, recreation) транзитная миграция (transit migration) другая цель → (other purpose) Запишите какая Specify

35. Circular migration • Migration history (for at least two most recent international moves) • Duration of stay • Purpose of movement

36. Migration History: Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (2008) • SECTION 1B. MIGRATION HISTORY • After you have completed age 12, have you ever changed your place of residence at least for 6 months? (Yes, No) • Now I wish to talk about all the different places of residences you have lived in for at least 6 months after you have completed age 12. Can you tell me the places you have lived in since then, starting from the one you were living at the age of 12? • In which province were you living? • When you were living there was this place a province centre, a district centre, a sub-district or village? Or was it abroad? • For how long did you live in ......? (RECORD INMONTHS IFLESS THAN 2YEARS) • At which month and year did you migrate from ........ to ........ ? • What was the main reason of migration from ......?

37. Trafficked Migrants • Highly sensitive survey topic (irregular) • ILO pilot tested surveys to measure forced labour (including trafficking) • Armenia (2009), Georgia (2008), Moldova LFS (2008) • Targeted working age populations who had recently returned from working abroad

38. Trafficking: Moldova LFS Migration Module (2008) • Have you ever been exploited in any of the following ways while working for someone else abroad? • Did this situation happen at the last job? • What was the sector in which you had to work under exploitation conditions? • When were you exploited? • In what country did this happened • For how long were you in this situation? • What was different at the working place as compared to what was previously promised to you? • Have you ever had to work against your own will under one of the following conditions? • By what means did the owner force you to work?

39. Summary • Some hard-to-count migrant groups were much more relevant to countries than others • Most relevant: irregular, short-term, refugees, and asylum seekers • Less relevant: transit and circular migrants • Overall, a paucity of data on these topics, and when data collected, often use a wide array of definitions (e.g. short-term migration) • The use of household surveys to estimate these populations is extremely rare

40. Summary, cont. • Household surveys can be used to identify hard-to-count migrants • Analysis of outcomes and characteristics in comparison to other migrant and non-migrant groups. • Specialized sampling techniques (and surveys) still necessary, given scarce presence in general population • Data quality concerns are still an issue

41. Future Work • Investigation of data quality issues • Sampling methodology needed to capture hard-to-count groups • More comprehensive examination of questions asked to identify these groups and recommend best practices