February 16, 2004

1. February 16, 2004 Opening Night of “The Little Prince.” And it’s always fun to watch C-SPAN, isn’t it?

2. Partisanship and Elections • Party-ID is a form or brand loyalty • Usually passed generation to generation • SD, D, ID, I, IR, R, SR • But the pillars have begun to crumble • Campaigns have become ever-more candidate-focused. • Growing disconnect between the partisanship of voters and elected officials

3. “The Traditional Right” Religious Support Bush 72%-17% US should use preemptive strike Gay relationships are “morally wrong” Religion should play more important role in government Oppose affirmative action Tax cuts are best way to stimulate economy Liberal Conservative “Traditional Conservatives” 16% Secular

4. “The Traditional Left” Religious Support Kerry 79%-8% US should not use preemptive strike Support gay rights Pro-immigration Pro-affirmative action Oppose tax cuts as economic policy Basic health insurance is a right “Traditional Liberals” 32% Liberal Conservative Secular

5. “The Secular Center” Religious Split evenly for President (42% Bush, 41% Kerry) Strongly supports gay rights Supports free trade Believes strongly in separation of church and state Oppose affirmative action Less supportive of environment Less likely to believe basic health insurance is a right Liberal Conservative “Secular Centrists” 29% Secular

6. “The Religious Center” Religious “Religious Centrists” 23% Liberal Conservative Lean Bush 51%-34% Support affirmative action Support the environment Gay relationships are “morally wrong” Religion should play more important role in government Highest concentration of African Americans and Latinos Secular

7. The Political Personality of a New Generation Religious “Traditional Liberals” 32% “Religious Centrists” 23% Liberal Conservative “Secular Centrists” 29% “Traditional Conservatives” 16% Secular

8. L S R C Democrat Republican L S R C Liberal Conservative Political Personality Index L=Traditional Liberals R=Traditional Conservatives R=Religious Centrists S=Secular Centrists R S C L Politically Inactive Politically Active L R S C Optimistic Pessimistic

9. S L C R Not Religious Religious L S R C Foreign PolicyLiberal Foreign PolicyConservative Political Personality Index L R S C Economic Policy Liberal Economic Policy Conservative L R S C Domestic Policy Liberal Domestic Policy Conservative R C L S Gay Rights Liberal Gay Rights Conservative

10. “How to Rig an Election”The Economist

11. Redistricting “In a normal democracy, voters choose their representatives. In America, it is rapidly becoming the other way around.” • Most countries hand over redistricting to an independent board • America: Every 10 years after a census, state legislature redraw congressional boundaries to be approved by the state’s governor

12. Effect of Voting Rights Act • Majority-minority districts • Goal: chance for minorities to elect a candidate of the same race

13. Partisan Redistricting • Software allows for detailed electoral maps, geographic information systems • Goal of incumbent protection: safety first • 2000: Reelection rate of 98% • Lack of competition depresses voter turnout • Categories of districts • Safe seats where incumbent almost assured of victory • Competitive districts where the parties focus their resources

14. Alternative Systems • Iowa: civil servants draw maps without regard to partisanship • Five other states: authority in a bipartisan redistricting commission

15. The Politics of Congressional ElectionsGary C. Jacobson

16. Interpreting Election Results • Based on economic conditions • National events at the time of elections • Scandals • Foreign affairs • Public dissatisfaction with Executive

17. Models of Congressional Election Results “The better the economy is performing, the better the congressional candidates of the president’s party do on election day.” • Tufte: division of Congressional vote related to economy and presidential popularity • Jacobson: 70% of change in % of House seats held by President’s party explained by Exposure, Change in Real Income per capita, Presidential approval • Most aggregate studies are based on the assumption that personal financial well-being is the criterion used by voters

18. Presidential Coattails • Winning presidential candidates lead some congressional candidates of the same party to victory • Erratic and usually modest in recent elections

19. National Elections and Strategic Politics • Many voters evaluate the candidates as individuals with little reference to national politics and personalities • Decision to run for Congress is strategic • Evaluate personal odds of winning • Evaluate party’s odds on aggregate level • Favored party usually fields more formidable challengers, incumbents of unfavorable party may retire • Campaign contributors make similar evaluations

20. National Elections and Strategic Politics • Direct and strong relationship between relative levels of spending by challengers and size of partisan seat swing • “Quality of challenger” is a large determinant of election outcome • Effects of national conditions on a congressional election depend on how the candidate uses the national issues

21. Campaign Themes • National conditions affect the themes that are available for a congressional campaign • Incumbents take credit for good things in government while disassociating selves from government failures • Even during times of dissatisfaction with the government, it is difficult to unseat an incumbent

22. House Elections • 1992 • 110 new members • The Year of the Woman, African-Americans and Hispanics • Partisan change modest • Environmental forces: stagnant economy, divided government, reapportionment • House Bank Overdraft Scandal

23. House Elections • 1994 • Republican Revolution in the House: 230R-204D = largest partisan swing since 1948 • Capitalize on blaming unified Democratic government for country’s problems • Nationalized election: Local choice issues framed on national terms • Clinton Problem: alienated groups of Democratic voters, cultural perceptions • Contract with America: little impact on voters

24. House Elections • 1996 • Republicans lose only 3 House seats in spite of public’s negative perception of Congress • Most of the seats Republicans won in 1992 were seats Republicans should have won before • Democrats no longer incumbents and had difficult time recruiting strong challengers • Congressional elections were not nationalized, they were individualized • Presidential campaign does not help Democratic Congressional candidates, scandal

25. House Elections • 1998 • 2nd time since Civil War that incumbent president’s party picks up seats • Voters endorse status quo in spite of Presidential scandal and impeachment • Public views impeachment as partisan • Both parties fail to recruit high quality challengers

26. House Elections • 2000 • Reflect close partisan balance, national forces seem neutral • Unprecedented amounts of money spent in highly competitive districts • Republican campaigns focus on individual district issues • Few seats changed partisan control

27. House Elections • 2002 • Incumbent President’s party gains seats for 2nd mid-term election in a row (3rd time since Civil War) • Consequence of redistricting, terrorism • Presidential popularity scares off quality Democratic challengers

28. House Elections • Lessons from Last 25 years • Potent issues and vigorous challenges needed to change the makeup of the House • Strength of challenger is KEY • Jacobson defines strong challengers as already • Holding elected office • Spending at least $300,000

29. Race and the Race • The Harvey Gantt case

30. Credits • Presentation based on: “How to Rig an Election,” The Economist, 4/25/2002, http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=1099030 Accessed 2/14/2005. • Images on cover from: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/3a/Gerrymander.jpeg Accessed 2/14/2005; San Antonio Express-News, 2003. • Presentation based on: Jacobson, Gary C., The Politics of Congressional Elections, 6th edition (New York: Pearson Longman, 2004) pp. 151-217. • Image on cover of The Politics of Congressional Elections from www.amazon.com Accessed 2/14/2005.