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ENFA/INSEA FORESTRY…..

“And see this ring right here, Jimmy? . . . That’s another time the old fellow miraculously survived some big forest fire.”. ENFA/INSEA FORESTRY…. INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK. Model for GHG Response to Management EPIC. Global ForAg Model FASOM. Regional Farm Type Model AROPAj.

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ENFA/INSEA FORESTRY…..

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  1. “And see this ring right here, Jimmy? . . . That’s another time the old fellow miraculously survived some big forest fire.” ENFA/INSEA FORESTRY…..

  2. INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK Model for GHG Response to Management EPIC Global ForAg Model FASOM Regional Farm Type Model AROPAj Regional Forest Model EURO - FOR Farm Model EFEM-DNDC Stand level Model PICUS • Common Database and Data Structure • Harmonized System Boundaries • IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting • Consistent Baseline Assumptions • Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures • Uniform Validation Criteria • Agreed Sustainability Constraints • Common IT Standards • Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines • Joint Vision Common Database and Standards All Partners

  3. Basic Modeling Forestland Forest Production Biofuel/GHG Demand Cropland Domestic Demand Water Markets Crop Production Labor Export Natl. Inputs Processing Import Other Resources Livestock Production Feed Mixing Pasture Land Grazing

  4. INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK Model for GHG Response to Management EPIC Global ForAg Model FASOM Regional Farm Type Model AROPAj Regional Forest Model EURO - FOR Farm Model EFEM-DNDC Stand level Model PICUS • Common Database and Data Structure • Harmonized System Boundaries • IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting • Consistent Baseline Assumptions • Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures • Uniform Validation Criteria • Agreed Sustainability Constraints • Common IT Standards • Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines • Joint Vision Common Database and Standards All Partners

  5. PICUS 2.0

  6. INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK Model for GHG Response to Management EPIC Global ForAg Model FASOM Regional Farm Type Model AROPAj Regional Forest Model OSCAR Farm Model EFEM-DNDC Stand level Model PICUS • Common Database and Data Structure • Harmonized System Boundaries • IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting • Consistent Baseline Assumptions • Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures • Uniform Validation Criteria • Agreed Sustainability Constraints • Common IT Standards • Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines • Joint Vision Common Database and Standards All Partners

  7. Tree Growth Effects of management -thinning Link to FASOM Dynamic PE of ForAg Data Issues Region or Grid DIMA Economic Downscaling Mortality OSCAR Forest Production OSCAR links

  8. Forestry modeling framework FASOM model-economic optimization of land use OSKAR model -forestry scenarios • Supply: • W4E • Wood4ForInd • C storage (soil, biomass) • LUC • Alternatives: • C storage • Wood • Energy • management: (harvest, thinning, species) • potential NPP • Initial state forest and soil NPP model climate • management costs

  9. OSCAR model output for a grid cell • The HRU is divided in biomass classes depending on the initial state of the forest in terms of biomass and species • Each area of similar biomass and species is modeled as a single forest stand • A number of management scenarios is simulated for each forest area and class

  10. density decomposition soil carbon thinning mortality self-thinning biomass growth CO2 Density and stand development • Thinning changes the density initially but also the development with time • After thinning the density approaches full density (self-thinning limit)

  11. Forest growth • Potential NPP controls growth rate and equilibrium biomass

  12. 0% 20% 70% Example: Management Scenario

  13. Biomass Chain – Methanol (Populus et al.) • Biomass Gasification Plants of variable size • Geographically explicit supply • Engineering cost calculations • In cooperation with LTU, BoKu

  14. Example with 5 biofuel plants

  15. Cost in €/GJMEOH

  16. Cost in € / lMEOH

  17. Tree Growth Effects of management -thinning Link to FASOM Dynamic PE of ForAg Data Issues Region or Grid DIMA Economic Downscaling Mortality OSCAR Forest Production OSCAR links

  18. DIMA_Global • Down-scaling Model • Exogenous Prices • Outputs (B4E, Timber, Carbon) • Inputs (Land, Labor, Capital/Technology)

  19. Land Use Change until 2100 for B1Intensity map: (affected) ha x C-uptake Existing forest Afforestation Deforestation

  20. Spatial Distribution of GDP • Important inputs to the spatially explicit forestry and regional agricultural model • Necessary information for vulnerability, adaptation and impact assessment

  21. Bioenergy Supply for 2000-2100 A2(Price < 6$/GJ)

  22. Outlook • First Data Supplied to FASOM • Constant Check of Species Calibration • Resource data appraisal and downscaling • Go Global with FASOM4WOOD • More Chains (FT Diesel, DME, H2, CCS…) • Disturbances & Implement rules from Stochastic calculus.

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