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Proposed Leveraged Buyout of MedSource Technologies

Proposed Leveraged Buyout of MedSource Technologies. Jon Fellows Mike Holland Malik Shakur. May 16, 2003. Agenda. Description of MedSource Valuation Current Current with Improvements LBO Analysis Characteristics Valuation Recommendation. What is MedSource?.

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Proposed Leveraged Buyout of MedSource Technologies

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  1. Proposed Leveraged Buyout of MedSource Technologies Jon Fellows Mike Holland Malik Shakur May 16, 2003

  2. Agenda • Description of MedSource • Valuation • Current • Current with Improvements • LBO Analysis • Characteristics • Valuation • Recommendation

  3. What is MedSource? • Began as a component manufacturer in 1998 built on acquisitions • Current product segments include: • Surgical Instrumentation • Electro medical Implants • Interventional Medicine • Orthopedics • Expanding to design and assembly to improve scale and profitability

  4. Where is MedSource? Operational Comparisons

  5. Where is MedSource?Financial Comparisons Source: MSN Money Central

  6. What is MedSource worth? • Current Situation without LBO: • No improvements • Improvements without LBO: • Include improvements • Improvements with LBO: • Include improvements • Take on debt through LBO

  7. Current Situation: Without LBO Operating Cash Flow Assumptions*: * Includes a NOL carryforward of $42 million Source: UBS analyst reports & common size statements

  8. Current Situation: Without LBO Beta = 1.90 Risk-free Rate = 3.98% Market Risk Premium = 6.18% Cost of Debt & Leases = 5.28% Cost of Preferred Stock = 6% Financial Assumptions: Cost of Equity = 15.72% WACC = 10.58% Source: UBS analyst reports & common size statements

  9. Current Situation: Implied Valuation • Enterprise Value - $122 million • Debt - $42 million • Equity Value - $80 million • Price per share - $2.88 Implications: • The market is not recognizing management’s ability to improve company—stock is fairly valued under these assumptions • Without improvements, an LBO would be impossible

  10. Value Creating Opportunities • Operational Improvements • Increase Gross Margins • Evolve business towards higher margin design areas • Relocate production from lower to higher margin locations • Improve Operating Leverage • Utilize excess capacity by increasing unit volume • Rationalize other capacity • Improve Working Capital Management • Extend payables to suppliers • Improve receivables collections • Reduce inventory • Goal: Move closer to more efficient of Medical Device Industry or Contract Manufacturing Industry

  11. Implied Valuation With Improvements Assumption: Improve COGS, SG&A, and NWC by 1% each Operating Cash Flow Assumptions* * Includes a NOL carryforward of $42 million Source: UBS analyst reports & common size statements

  12. Implied Valuation with Improvements • Enterprise Value - $178 million • Debt - $42 million • Equity Value - $136 million • Price per share - $4.89 Implications: • There is significant value to be gained from marginal improvements • Value-added is approximately 69% from 1% improvements in • COGS, SG&A, and NWC

  13. Attribution Analysis: Where’s the Value? The $55.9 million incremental value is primarily attributed to cost of goods sold and SG&A: • COGS: $25.9 Million • SG&A: $25.9 Million • WC: $4.1 Million

  14. What Makes for a Good LBO Candidate?  • Limited Vulnerability to Predatory Pricing • MEDT is already market leader • Diffuse Industry • 4,000 players in medical outsourcing industry • Areas for Improvement (Operating and/or Financial) • COGS, SG&A, NWC—efficiency improvements • Unutilized Debt Capacity • Acquisition strategy leads to uncertainty   ?

  15. What Makes for a Good LBO Candidate?  • High, Stable Cash Flows • Optimistic for the future, but unproven past • Low Business Risk (Low Asset Beta) • Asset beta = 1.34 • Low Reinvestment Requirements • Potentially very high for acquisition strategy • Mature Industry • Components side maturing, but design and manufacturing business in its infancy   

  16. LBO: Acquisition Cost Assumptions • Current Value • Market Cap: $80.6 million • Debt Level: $41.9 million • Enterprise Value: $122.5 million • Stock Premium Offered (30%) • Acquisition Cost = $146.7 Equity Value as of 5/9/03

  17. LBO: Deal Structure Assumptions Acquisition Cost $146.7 million • Represents anticipated maximum leverage available in HLT • Lower equity capital provides greater upside Equity Capital $36.7 million (25%) Debt Capital $110.0 million (75%) Source: High yield desk of major investment bank & our assumptions

  18. LBO: Debt Characteristics • Senior Debt: $38.8 million • Assets for Collateral • Accounts Receivable at 75% of value • Inventory at 50% of value • Property, Plant, & Equipment at 25% of value • Total = $38.8 million • Repayment Schedule • Principal payments equally over five years beginning in year two • Interest rate (5.28%) • LIBOR plus 400 bps Source: High yield desk of major investment bank & our assumptions

  19. LBO: Debt Characteristics • Mezzanine Debt: $71.2 million • Repayment Schedule • Principal payments equally for five years beginning in year three • Interest rate (12%) • 52-week average of Merrill Lynch High Yield Index Source: High yield desk of major investment bank & our assumptions

  20. LBO Valuation with Improvements Adjusted Present Value Framework • Enterprise Value - $176 million • All equity firm value: $161 Million (excludes NOLs) • Interest tax shields value: $15 Million • Unlevered Cost of Equity – 12.26% • Debt - $42 million • Equity Value - $134 million • Price per share - $4.82 Implications: • From a valuation standpoint, LBO is attractive • 28% return potential over and above 30% acquisition premium

  21. LBO: Debt Payment Capabilities Cash Deficits* • Free cash flow from operations is insufficient to support debt load from LBO *Cash deficits continue until 2012

  22. Simulation Analysis • Simulation assumptions • NWC, SG&A, COGS • Normal distributions • 10% standard deviations • Simulation Results • 3% chance for meeting interest and principal payments

  23. Simulation Results Based on assumptions, there is only 3% chance of success

  24. Risks: MedSource • Concentrated Customer Base • Few (4) customers account for 52% of revenue • Susceptible to Outsourcing Trends • Is trend toward outsourcing sustainable? • Length of Customer Contracts • Short – project by project; few long-term contracts • Reduce volume • Cancellation can occur anytime

  25. Risks: MedSource • Inability to Transfer Increased Costs • No pricing power over customers • Price volatility of raw materials • Evolving Business Strategy • See Revco LBO failure • Acquisition Strategy • Problems with integration • Diversion of management resources

  26. Possible Alternatives to LBO • Roll-up Strategy • Consolidate industry via acquisitions, primarily using equity • Due to depressed stock price, roll-up strategy would be too dilutive • Most effective when stock price is fairly valued • Leveraged Build-up • Consolidate industry via acquisitions, primarily using debt • Similar difficulties as LBO, but with added acquisition vs. debt payment conflict • Requires efficient integration of acquired companies

  27. Recommendation • Do not undertake an LBO • Improve operational efficiencies to align with respective industry benchmarks • COGS, SG&A, NWC • Successfully integrate past acquisitions • Assuming stock price appreciates, begin roll-up strategy using a fairly-valued equity currency

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