Global Risk Informatics Microsoft / Gates Foundation. Debra Goldfarb Sr. Director, Technical Computing Industry Strategy. The crisis information gap. When the global economic crisis hit in 2008, world leaders knew they needed to act quickly .
Sr. Director, Technical Computing Industry Strategy
When the global economic crisis hit in 2008, world leaders knew they needed to act quickly.
They knew that they needed to take immediate policy actions to protect communities from downstream impacts on health, nutrition, education, jobs, and the environment.
Agile, targeted responses required up-to-date evidence of how families were coping with shocks.
Sounds pretty straightforward, no?
The information gap is real… validate!
First data becomes available
…as are its consequences. validate!
Decision makers had access to real-time data and the tools to detect the early signals ?
Policy-makers and field workers had models to help uncover the complexities of disease, economic crises, poverty, civil unrest?
We could tailor interventions based on real data and analysis?
We could broadly apply simulation and modelling to global risk to dramatically change outcomes?
Guided by the belief that every life has equal value, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation works to help all people lead healthy, productive lives. In developing countries, it focuses on improving people’s health and giving them the chance to lift themselves out of hunger and extreme poverty. In the United States, it seeks to ensure that all people—especially those with the fewest resources—have access to the opportunities they need to succeed in school and life.
The Foundation focuses primarily on the “bottom 20”
Malaria Burden -2008
•863 000 deaths
•243 million cases
•Half of the world's population is at risk of malaria
The Goal: Eradication
Integration of community inputs into unified framework
Assembly of regional vector ecology profiles
Identification of critical data gaps
Location-specific stratifications and data
Vector species ecology profiles and ranges
Malaria parasite locations, rates
Assessment of utility of potential VC interventions
Policies and regulations
Identification of gaps in current intervention set as informant of TPPs
Supply, demand and financing assessment
Regulations, policies, financing
Intervention profiles, incl. efficacy and resistance
Aggregate vector species information
Consolidate multiple location-based variables
Map against malaria outbreak data (location, rate)
Overlay intervention profiles, including efficacy info.
Primary data components
Secondary components (used to expand and/or refine framework)
Key sources for data
1. Interventions to be classified by control paradigm, target vector age, active ingredient(s), number of active ingredients, safety, development status and robustness against pyrethroid-resistant vectors
Local resistance to AIs
Academic lit., Vestergaard-Frandsen,
Comprehensive vector ecologies
MAP, WRBU, STI
& vector speciesdatasets / maps
datasets / maps
datasets / maps
MAP, WRBU, DVD, STI
List of reproduct. isolated groups
DVD, MAP., STI
Vector presence coordinates
DVD, MAP , Academic lit.
MAP, DVD , Academic lit., Expert ranges
Expert-derived vector ranges
MAP, Expert input
Location-specificboundaries & data
MAP, GRUMP WHO, Academic lit., Vestergaard-Frandsen
Intervention utility map
WHO, Academic lit.
Parasite rates and coordinates
MAP, Academic lit.
Expert-derived epidem. ranges
MAP, Expert input
MAP, Academic lit., Expert input
MAP, WHO, STI
Profiles of currentinterventions
Intervention gap assessment
WHO, Academic lit., STI, Expert input
List of interventions
WHO, STI, Expert input, academic literature
WHO, STI, academic literature
VCDN consortia member
Develop the “cyber infrastructure,” applications and tools to enable broad-based sharing of Malaria data and models; simulation and analysis to drive positive and predictive outcomes
Components: cloud-based large scale data integration, collaborative tools, extraction/ modeling/analytic tools, visualization, GIS-mapping, search, simulation and modeling
Data: integrity, formats, ontologies, currency and curation, security….not to mention the “politics” of data
Collaboration: data owners don’t always play nice
Technology + policy = impacts
We are in unchartered territory…….
Thank you! information sets, enables assessment of vector control interventions