Community smoke emissions model
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Community Smoke Emissions Model. WRAP Fire Emissions Forum Meeting December 2002 Douglas Fox Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Colorado State University Ft. Collins, CO 80524-1375 [email protected]

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Community smoke emissions model

Community Smoke Emissions Model

WRAP Fire Emissions Forum Meeting

December 2002

Douglas Fox

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

Colorado State University

Ft. Collins, CO 80524-1375

[email protected]


Community smoke emissions model

  • Based on work & presentations developed in cooperation with Dr. Mike Sestak (an independent consultant), Dr. Susan O’Neill (research scientist in PNW Seattle FERA group), Dr. Sue Ferguson (PNW FERA), Dr. Jason Ching (EPA/NOAA research) & Dr. Al Riebau (FS research)


History

History

  • Technically Advanced Smoke Estimation Tools (TASET)

    • JFSP project (Fox & Riebau, 1998-2000)

  • Establish FCAMMS Cooperative Agreement (2000-continuing)

    • NPS Air Quality Division/CIRA (1999)

      • Evaluate applicability of Models3/CMAQ in Western US (WRAP….)

      • R&D on fire emissions


Community smoke emissions model

Land

Vegetation growth & composition

Cover &

including fire effects models

Condition

Fire behavior & combustion

Databases

models

Archived

Archived

Smoke Emissions

& On-Site

Smoke Emissions

& On-Site

Models

Met Data

Models

Met Data

Met.

Mesoscale

Air

Smoke

Forecast Models

Pollutant

Concentration

Dispersion

patterns in

Local wind field

Local wind field

Models

space & time

diagnostic models

diagnostic models

SETS -- Evaluation

SETS -- Operational

SETS -- Tactical

SETS -- Strategic

SETS -- Strategic

TASET suggested ‘Smoke Estimation Tool Sets’ need to be populated with some different tools at each level of activity but tools must be able to interact between the activity levels.


Community smoke emissions model

USFS/Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Smoke and Meteorology (FCAMMS) will implement smoke management using “BlueSky” by 2003.


Bluesky smoke modeling framework

BlueSky: Smoke Modeling Framework

  • Regional application;

  • Automated, centralized processing;

  • Emission tracking;

  • Prediction of surface concentrations;

  • Quantitative verification;

  • Community model development;

  • Web-access control and output products;

  • www.BlueSkyRAINS.org/


Needs for a community smoke emissions model

Needs for a Community Smoke Emissions Model

  • Fire smoke is significant

  • Current emissions inventories are labor intensive

    • GCVTC, WRAP

  • Potential Applications

    • Regional Air Quality Modeling

      • Regional Haze planning & SIP development

      • PM2.5

    • Smoke Management

      • Blue Sky Framework

      • State based regulatory programs

    • Land Manager inventory & evaluations


Monitoring data

Monitoring Data

  • IMPROVE program measures visibility & speciated aerosol data representing Class I areas & relates them to each other for the regional haze rule;

  • Majority of fine particle species emitted from fires are organic and elemental carbon & secondary organic aerosol formation is poorly understood.

  • Wildland fire contributes to the 20% worst visibility days, especially in the west


Fire effects visibility

Fire effects visibility

  • Monthly OC contribution to total fine mass reaches 80% in some western US locations, longer term 10-30%

  • IMPROVE monitoring suggests a range of 10%-40% of OC (organic carbon contribution to PM2.5) on the high mass days (20% worst visibility) may be from wild fires.


Community smoke emissions model

On-going research is attempting to quantify fire’s contribution to organic aerosols p

Organic Carbon % contribution to total extinction

Elemental Carbon % contribution to total extinction


Community smoke emissions model

Preliminary research results from the NPS Yosemite field study August 2002, on particle chemical composition

  • Organics accounted for about 80% of the non-soil fine mass during the summer of 2002.

  • The summertime organics in 1996-98 account for about 60% of the non-soil fine mass.

  • Organics come from biomass & fossil fuels

DRAFT

not for publication

IMPROVE Data

1996-98


Why a community smoke emissions model

Why a Community Smoke Emissions Model?

  • Common fire data

    • Inputs not readily available

  • Common modeling heritage

    • Fire Behavior - BEHAVE

    • Fuel Consumption - CONSUME

    • Emissions Production – EPM

    • Emissions Factors

  • Variety of applications

    • Different objectives drive different accuracy & resolution needs


Community smoke emissions modeling

Consumption

Emissions Production

Speciation

Community Smoke Emissions Modeling

Identify

Fires

Identify Fuels

Meteorology

Plume Rise

Input for Regional AQ model


What we csem is trying to do

What we CSEM istrying to do…

  • Goal: to build a tool to generate emissions from forest burning for use in regional air quality modeling with the following characteristics:

    • Scale is regional to national with resolution ranging from 1 km to 36 km;

    • Temporal resolution from hourly to multi-year;

    • Chemical species including all NAAQS & visibility components & their precursors;

    • Accuracy equivalent to other emissions estimates.


Community smoke emissions model

FIRES

Fire Generator

(hourly, 1km resolution)

Identify Fire Boundaries

(daily, 1 km resolution)

Read from National Fire Occurrence database

Identify vegetation cover & fuel loadings

(1 km resolution)

Read from NFDR fuel model coverage

Modify with National FCC coverage

MM5 Meteorology

2pm local time

Temperature; Relative humidity; Cloud cover; Wind speed

Daily

Temperature range; Relative humidity range

Past 7 days

Precipitation; Same as above

Generate species Emissions & Plume Rise

(hourly, regional model resolution)

Develop emissions profiles to scale species from EPM generated emissions & to generate hourly emissions distributions.

Estimate plume rise based on Briggs at appropriate resolution for the spatial scale of emissions.

Calculate Fuel Moisture Content

(daily, weekly, regional model resolution)

NFDR calculations based onMM5 input for range of variables at 36 km resolution

Calculate Fuel Consumption

(daily, regional model resolution)

Utilize CONSUME to generate fuel consumption and EPM to estimate emissions & heat release rate for each fire.


Assumptions about our approach

Assumptions about our approach…

  • Build a 1st order tool capable of estimating needed information from existing data & information sources;

  • Accuracy & scale needed are compatible with the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDR);

  • Based on historical fire data;

  • Meteorological data generated from MM5 &/or higher resolution diagnostic models.


Approach outline

Approach outline

  • Identify fire boundaries;

  • Identify vegetation & fuels involved;

  • Calculate fuel moisture content;

  • Calculate fuel consumption;

  • Calculate fire emissions;

  • Speciate fire emissions & calculate plume rise.


Identify fire boundaries

FIRES

Fire Generator

(hourly, 1km resolution)

Identify Fire Boundaries

(daily, 1 km resolution)

Read from National Fire Occurrence database

Identify fire boundaries

  • Time, location, & size of fires determined from National Fire Occurrence Database(Hardy, et.al. Missoula Fire Lab.)

  • Federal & most State fires, from 1986-1996, at 1km resolution in a daily GIS database .


Identify vegetation fuels

Identify vegetation & fuels

  • Identify NFDR fuel model at 1 km resolution from Bergen, et.al., 1998

  • Modify fuel loading, if necessary, using fuel National Current Condition Class coverage (Hardy, et.al. Missoula Fire Lab.)

Identify vegetation cover & fuel loadings

(1 km resolution)

Read from NFDR fuel model coverage

Modify with National FCC coverage


Community smoke emissions model

Optional modifier for NFDR fuel loadings, if

needed to replicate WRAP ’96 fire emissions


Calculate fuel moisture content

Use NFDR equations based on data from MM5 including daily temperature & RH range, wind speed, cloud cover, precip.

Drought indices from MM5

Resolution from MM5

Calculate Fuel Moisture Content

(daily, weekly, regional model resolution)

NFDR calculations based onMM5 input for range of variables at 36 km resolution

Calculate fuel moisture content


Calculate fuel emissions

Calculate fuel & emissions

  • Use CONSUME with NFDR model estimates of fuel loading & moisture content.

  • Use EPM to generate PM10, PM2.5, CO & heat release rate.

Calculate Fuel Consumption

(daily, regional model resolution)

Utilize CONSUME to generate fuel consumption and EPM to estimate emissions & heat release rate for each fire.


Speciate emissions calculate plume rise

Develop emissions profiles from ratios of species to calculated CO emissions from current research results.

Calculate plume rise using Briggs per SASEM

Generate species Emissions & Plume Rise

(hourly, regional model resolution)

Develop emissions profiles to scale species from EPM generated emissions & to generate hourly emissions distributions.

Estimate plume rise based on Briggs at appropriate resolution for the spatial scale of emissions.

Speciate emissions & calculate plume rise


Emissions speciation

Emissions speciation

CE = DCO2 / {DCO+DCO2+DCH4+DCother}

MCE = 0.15+.86*CE


Preliminary results

Preliminary Results

  • Comparative data inputs from 2002 Oregon fire (actual vs. 1996 met)

    BlueSky/FASTRACS CSEM

  • Area of Burnsite [acre] 500 500

  • 0 - 0.25 inch fuel [tons/acre]1.0 2.9

  • 0.25 - 1 inch fuel [tons/acre]2.2 2.3

  • 1 - 3 inch fuel [tons/acre]1.6 5.6

  • 3 - 9 inch fuel [tons/acre] 5.4 13.2

  • 9 - 20 inch fuel [tons/acre] 24.6 0

  • 20+ inch fuel [tons/acre]0.1 0

  • Duff 8.0 2.5

  • Burn-site slope [percent]50 50

  • Ignition time [HHMM]1400 1400

  • 10-hr fuel moisture 9 13.5

  • Surface wind speed (mph) 6 5.5


Preliminary results1

Preliminary Results

  • Comparative emissions from 2002 Oregon fire (actual vs. 1996 met)

    Bluesky CIRA

  • Time Heat Rel PM-10 Heat Rel PM-10

  • 60 1.448E+07 9079.0 1.521E+07 9054.1

  • 120 1.495E+07 9416.7 1.533E+07 9144.7

  • 180 1.497E+07 9429.6 1.533E+07 9145.7

  • 240 1.497E+07 9430.0 1.533E+07 9145.8

  • 300 1.497E+07 9430.1 1.533E+07 9145.8

  • 360 1.497E+07 9430.1 1.533E+07 9145.8

  • 420 4.890E+05 351.0 116867.1 91.6

  • 480 1.868E+04 13.4 1287.9 1.0

  • 540 7.137E+02 .5 14.2 0.0

  • 600 2.727E+01 .0 0.2 0.0


Preliminary results2

Preliminary Results


Csem summary

CSEM Summary

  • A rational approach to generating forest fire emissions for regional scale modeling has been developed.

  • Results appear to be consistent with site specific emissions estimates (BlueSky) but more testing is needed.

  • Plans exist to incorporate CSEM into the SMOKE processor.


Challenges remaining

Challenges remaining

  • Coding CSEM into appropriate emissions processors, i.e. ‘SMOKE’;

  • Testing sensitivities & simulating WRAP ‘96 fire emissions;

  • Compare simulated emissions with WRAP ’96 Fire Emissions results;

  • Adding smoke emissions into regional modeling (REMSAD & CMAQ);

  • Finding adequate input data for years since 1996.


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