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California Registered Voters Research Presentation May 2006. Methodology. Statewide telephone survey conducted April 6-20, 2006 All registered voters 500 interviews statewide, plus oversamples
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Methodology • Statewide telephone survey conducted April 6-20, 2006 • All registered voters • 500 interviews statewide, plus oversamples • Results from: Latinos (n=412), Anglos (n=335), African Americans (n=101) and Asian Americans (n=109).
Why this Methodology? • What makes this poll unique? • Most statewide polls do not include oversamples among non-Anglos. Their normal portion of a poll sample is too small to be able to report results among different racial or ethnic subgroups • So despite California’s acknowledged diversity, it’s rare to see poll results for non-Anglos. In some cases polls report on Latinos (12%-14% of likely voters) but almost never on Asian Americans (3-5%) or African-Americans (4-6%)
Registered Voters v. RDD • Most public polls (Field, Public Policy Institute of California, L.A. Times) use RDD • They call a computer generated list of telephone numbers and rely on self-reporting and their own modeling to decide who is, or is not, a likely voter • We called actual registered voters so we can check on their actual past electoral participation and compare that with their stated intent to vote
Key Research Findings • Strong support for progressive policies among people of color, who over time will become larger portion of California electorate • Strong support for many progressive policies among Anglos, too • Challenges to multi-racial unity exist in different viewpoints on certain issues • On many attitudes, Asian-American responses mirror Anglos, while African-American and Latino responses are more closely allied • Voter turnout will have big impact on results of both primary and general gubernatorial election
Overview of Voter Attitudes: Taxes
Do you support or oppose the following: • Creating a wealth tax in California so that people with assets of more than 5 million dollars would pay a small annual tax on those assets to raise revenue for essential services.
Do you support or oppose the following: • Changing Proposition 13 so that corporations that own property would pay taxes on the current fair market value of their property.
When it comes to funding state services, such as education, health care, public safety, and roads and highways, which candidate’s position would you prefer? • A candidate who opposes ANY tax increases. He says he will increase revenue by collecting unpaid taxes from tax cheats, but if that does not bring in enough revenue, he’ll cut the state’s budget for services instead of raising taxes. • A candidate who says that these are essential services which must be provided by the state. He supports raising needed revenue by closing corporate tax loopholes and taxing multi-millionaires.
Overview of Voter Attitudes: Education
Do you support or oppose the following: • The Universal Pre-School Initiative which would provide one year of pre-school to all California children at no cost to their families. It would be paid for with a tax on individuals making over 400 thousand dollars a year and married couples making over 800 thousand dollars a year.
Do you support or oppose the following: • Providing free tuition to community college or 4-year college for all high school students who demonstrate they are ready for college.
Overview of Voter Attitudes: Criminal Justice
Do you support or oppose the following: • Changing the Three Strikes and You’re Out law so that the third strike has to be a violent or serious offense, not just a minor crime, except when the offender has been convicted of murder, rape, or child molestation.
When it comes to punishment of non-violent criminals, which candidate’s position do you support more? • A candidate who believes we have built enough jails in California and now need to consider alternative ways to rehabilitate non-violent criminals, including treatment programs that help them get back into society • A candidate who believes the only way to stop crime is to get the criminals off the streets and put them behind bars.
Overview of Voter Attitudes: Health Care
Support for: Creating a universal health care plan to provide health care to all Californians through a single provider set up by the State of California.
Which of the following statementsabout health care in California is closest to your own point of view? • Health care is such a basic human need that everyone should have access to quality health care, whether they can pay for it or not. • Health insurance and health care are expensive and it would just cost taxpayers and businesses too much money to provide everyone with health care.
Which candidate’s position on health care reform do you support more? • A candidate who supports universal health care for every Californian, including adults and children. • A candidate who opposes universal health care for adults, but supports it for children and supports requiring employers to provide health care benefits. • A candidate who opposes universal health care and opposes requiring employers to provide health care benefits.
Overview of Voter Attitudes: Immigration
Do you support or oppose the following: PROPOSALS FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION • Allowing undocumented immigrants who are already in the U.S. to eventually earn their U.S. citizenship if they pay a fine, remain employed, pay taxes, learn English, undergo a background check, and have not committed any crime.
Do you support or oppose the following: • Round up the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. and deport them to their own countries.
Do you support or oppose the following: • Make it a felony crime for someone to give aid or assistance to an undocumented immigrant, including food or shelter.
Do you support or oppose the following: PROPOSALS FOR FUTURE IMMIGRATION • Immigrants could come to the U.S. to work for a maximum of six years, at which point they would have to return to their own country. These immigrants would never be eligible for citizenship.
Opposition to Guest Worker Program with No Citizenship Option
Do you support or oppose the following: • Immigrants could come to the U.S. to work for three years, and in the fourth year, while continuing to work, they would be eligible for citizenship.
“Extremely” Serious Problem: Immigrants Being Treated Poorly
Governor’s Race: The Democratic Primary
Democratic Primary (1/2) • Among all registered voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, our poll shows a tie between Westly (25%) and Angelides (25%) • Voters with a history of having voted in a primary in 2000, 2002, or 2004, give Angelides a slight lead, 27% to 24% for Westly • Voters who say they will vote but have not voted in any of those primaries give Westly a seven-point lead, 26% to 19% for Angelides
Democratic Primary (2/2) • Since our poll sample is all registered voters, and so few young people actually vote, our poll sample is younger than the average likely age on primary day • This is important because Westly leads among senior citizens by 13 points – 32% to 19% • Westly also leads among Latinos by ten points (30% Westly, 20% Angelides) • Clearly who shows up to vote on election day will have big impact on the outcome
Primary Race for Governor Most likely voters Less likely voters
Primary Race for Governor Ages 18-64 Ages 65+
