1 / 69

presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr.

presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. . The Great China Bubble, Global Demographic Trends and Growth in Emerging Countries. (2011). (1993). The Great China Bubble. Chinese Urban Population vs. Birth Rate. Source: United Nations. China GDP Growth 2000-2012. YoY Percent Change.

fonda
Download Presentation

presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr.

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. The Great China Bubble, Global Demographic Trends and Growth in Emerging Countries (2011) (1993)

  2. The Great China Bubble

  3. Chinese Urban Population vs. Birth Rate Source: United Nations

  4. China GDP Growth2000-2012 YoY Percent Change Data Source: Bloomberg, 2012

  5. China, PMI2007-2012 Data Source: Bloomberg, 2012

  6. China, Trends Year over Year Change Source: “Understanding the China Slowdown,” Dexter Roberts, Bloomberg Business Week. 5/31/2012

  7. Declining Personal Consumption in China 1952-2010 Source: The Economist “One-Track Bind.” 9/24/2011; World Bank, 2011

  8. Change in China Components of GDP 1995-2000 2005-2010 Source: Organization for Economic Co-operative Development, 2011

  9. Chinese Capital Spending Source: Pivot Capital Management

  10. Chinese Investment Bubble Source: Pivot Capital Management

  11. Chinese Capital Spending Source: Pivot Capital Management

  12. Chinese Credit Bubble Source: Pivot Capital Management

  13. Housing Units vs. Household Formation Source: Pivot Capital Management, 2010

  14. Home Price to Income Ratio in Emerging and Developed World Cities, 2012 Source: www.numbeo.com

  15. Steel Capacity Source: Pivot Capital Management

  16. Cement Capacity Source: Pivot Capital Management

  17. Aluminum Capacity Source: Pivot Capital Management

  18. Economies Exposed by Exports to China Source: Bloomberg Business Week, “The Slowdown in China: Who’s Exposed,” 7/11/2011

  19. Exports as a Percent of GDP in Select Countries Data Source: The World Bank, 2011

  20. Percent of GDP Exported to China in Select Countries Data Source: The World Bank, 2011, Bloomberg Business Week, “The Slowdown in China: Who’s Exposed,” 7/11/2011

  21. China’s Global Share of Selected Commodities Percent Source: The Economist; “A Game of Catch-up,” 9/24/2011

  22. 29-30 Year Commodity Price CycleCRB Index (PPI before 1947) 1913-2040 2039-40 2009-10 1980 1949-1951 1920 Data Source: Bloomberg, 2012

  23. 34-36 Year Geopolitical CycleDow Industrials Data Source: HS Dent, Yahoo Finance, 2011

  24. 250-Year Revolutionary Cycle 2150 1900 1650 2nd American Revolution Emerging World Revolution Network Revolution American Revolution French Revolution Industrial Revolution Protestant Revolution Capitalist Revolution

  25. Global Demographic Trends

  26. Europe, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  27. Latin America/Caribbean, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations

  28. East Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  29. Southeast Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  30. South Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  31. Middle East/North Africa, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  32. Sub-Saharan Africa, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  33. Global Innovation/Inflation Wave India Pakistan N. Africa Mid East Saudi Arabia China 2 Russia 2 US 1 Europe Mexico SE Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Japan 2 S. Korea US 2 Indonesia Brazil China 1 Russia 1 Japan 1 Source: United Nations

  34. Global Spending Wave India Pakistan N. Africa Mid East Saudi Arabia China 2 Russia 2 US 1 Europe Mexico SE Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Japan 2 S. Korea US 2 Indonesia Brazil China 1 Russia 1 Japan 1 Source: United Nations

  35. Growth in Emerging Countries

  36. Urbanization Rates in Select Developed Countries % Urbanization Source: Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. 2001 Development Center Studies, OECD, 2012

  37. The Wealth CurveThe S-Curve of Industrialization/Urbanization Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 99% 99.9% 90 80 70 60 50 50% 40 30 20 10 1% .1% 10% 0 India China Korea Percent Adoption Japan U.S., Australia, New Zealand Western Europe Time Source: HS Dent

  38. Income by Age, 10-Year Cohorts Source: Euromonitor International, World Income Distribution, 2008/2009, 6th Edition.

  39. Distribution of Income in China, 2011 Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, 2012

  40. Distribution of Income in India, 2011 Source: India Bureau of Statistics, 2012

  41. BrazilGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $10,100 $10,008 in 2011 Int’l Dollars GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  42. Brazil, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations

  43. ChinaGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $14,000 $9,498 in 2011 Int’l Dollars GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  44. China, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations

  45. IndiaGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $11,550 $3,870 in 2011 Int’l Dollars GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  46. India, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations

  47. IndonesiaGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $7,250 $5,089 in 2011 Int’l Dollars GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  48. MalaysiaGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $14,689 in 2011 Int’l Dollars $15,900 GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  49. IranGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $12,154 in 2011 Int’l Dollars $11,900 GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  50. Philippines GPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $3,847 in 2011 Int’l Dollars GDP Per Capita $3,850 % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

More Related