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ARMENIA: NPD Baseline for rural Water Supply and Sanitation Yerevan, 22 March 2007

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ARMENIA: NPD Baseline for rural Water Supply and Sanitation Yerevan, 22 March 2007 Jochem Jantzen Director, TME. CONTENTS Data and data delineation Baseline scenario, preliminary results. DATA AND DATA DELINEATION Data available

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

ARMENIA:

NPD Baseline for rural

Water Supply and Sanitation

Yerevan, 22 March 2007

Jochem Jantzen

Director, TME

slide2

CONTENTS

  • Data and data delineation
  • Baseline scenario, preliminary results
slide3

DATA AND DATA DELINEATION

  • Data available
  • -Statistical data on population, water supply and sanitation (census)
  • -Results JICA-questionnaire (416 returned of 565)
  • -Results questionnaire to water companies (AWSC, Lori WSC, Nor Akunq)
  • Various water related studies PRSP, WB, OECD, info and interviews with water companies
slide4

DATA DELINEATION

Population data on all settlements

slide5

DATA DELINEATION

Water intake

slide6

DATA DELINEATION

Water distribution

slide7

DATA DELINEATION

Water sanitation

slide8

DATA DELINEATION

  • Finance
  • Data collected from water companies on:
    • Charge levels, total revenues
    • Loans (KfW)
    • Central budget financing
  • Difficult to separate rural from total revenues / expenditures (water cie.)
slide9

DATA DELINEATION

  • Discussion
  • Feasible Model requires grouping
  • Technical criteria for grouping (water intake, treatment)
  • Other criteria (policy related):
  • - geographical
  • - institutional
  • - supply situation (no distribution)
  • - size
slide10

BASELINE SCENARIO: Data delineation water infrastructure

  • 847 rural settlements are grouped in totally 81 ´average settlements´
  • -criteria applied:
  • water intake,
  • geography-institutional,
  • size
slide13

BASELINE SCENARIO:

  • Financing: revenues
  • Budget and loans:
      • Budget 1 163 mln DRAM
      • Loans 3 663 mln DRAM
  • Current rural revenues roughly estimated at:
  • Total 1 015 mln DRAM
  • AWSC 850 mln DRAM
  • Nor Akunq 21 mln DRAM
  • Lori WSC 56 mln DRAM
  • Rest 90 mln DRAM
slide14

BASELINE SCENARIO:

  • Financing: potential revenues
  • - Water sold 120 m3/household
  • Collection rate <> Service level
  • - Current potential revenues roughly estimated at:
  • Total 1 551 mln DRAM
  • AWSC 881 mln DRAM (66%)
  • Nor Akunq 74 mln DRAM (97%)
  • Lori WSC 58 mln DRAM (70%)
  • Rest 538 mln DRAM (30%)
slide15

BASELINE SCENARIO:

Financing gap (mln DRAM/year)

slide16

BASELINE SCENARIO:

Affordability potential revenues

Optimistic

slide17

BASELINE SCENARIO:

Affordability potential revenues

Pessimistic

slide18

BASELINE SCENARIO:

  • Questions
  • Affordability now assumed at 3% (for Water Supply in rural areas), should it be for example 4%?
  • -Sanitation: are the assumptions realistic?
  • -Are projected revenues realistic?
slide19

BASELINE SCENARIO:

  • Discussion
  • With projected optimistic economic growth, little problems to be expected for affordability
  • With less optimistic assumptions, affordability will remain a problem
  • - Revenues are not enough to cover both O&M and re-investment expenditures (even with increased revenues)
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