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ARMENIA: NPD Baseline for rural Water Supply and Sanitation Yerevan, 22 March 2007 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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ARMENIA: NPD Baseline for rural Water Supply and Sanitation Yerevan, 22 March 2007 Jochem Jantzen Director, TME. CONTENTS Data and data delineation Baseline scenario, preliminary results. DATA AND DATA DELINEATION Data available

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ARMENIA: NPD Baseline for rural Water Supply and Sanitation Yerevan, 22 March 2007

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Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

ARMENIA:

NPD Baseline for rural

Water Supply and Sanitation

Yerevan, 22 March 2007

Jochem Jantzen

Director, TME


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

  • CONTENTS

  • Data and data delineation

  • Baseline scenario, preliminary results


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

  • DATA AND DATA DELINEATION

  • Data available

  • -Statistical data on population, water supply and sanitation (census)

  • -Results JICA-questionnaire (416 returned of 565)

  • -Results questionnaire to water companies (AWSC, Lori WSC, Nor Akunq)

  • Various water related studies PRSP, WB, OECD, info and interviews with water companies


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

DATA DELINEATION

Population data on all settlements


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

DATA DELINEATION

Water intake


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

DATA DELINEATION

Water distribution


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

DATA DELINEATION

Water sanitation


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

  • DATA DELINEATION

  • Finance

  • Data collected from water companies on:

    • Charge levels, total revenues

    • Loans (KfW)

    • Central budget financing

  • Difficult to separate rural from total revenues / expenditures (water cie.)


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

  • DATA DELINEATION

  • Discussion

  • Feasible Model requires grouping

  • Technical criteria for grouping (water intake, treatment)

  • Other criteria (policy related):

  • - geographical

  • - institutional

  • - supply situation (no distribution)

  • - size


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

  • BASELINE SCENARIO: Data delineation water infrastructure

  • 847 rural settlements are grouped in totally 81 ´average settlements´

  • -criteria applied:

  • water intake,

  • geography-institutional,

  • size


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

BASELINE SCENARIO: Data delineation water infrastructure


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

BASELINE SCENARIO: Expenditures (mln DRAM/year)


Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

  • BASELINE SCENARIO:

  • Financing: revenues

  • Budget and loans:

    • Budget 1 163 mln DRAM

    • Loans 3 663 mln DRAM

  • Current rural revenues roughly estimated at:

  • Total1 015 mln DRAM

  • AWSC 850 mln DRAM

  • Nor Akunq 21 mln DRAM

  • Lori WSC 56 mln DRAM

  • Rest 90 mln DRAM


  • Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

    • BASELINE SCENARIO:

    • Financing: potential revenues

    • - Water sold 120 m3/household

    • Collection rate <> Service level

    • - Current potential revenues roughly estimated at:

    • Total1 551 mln DRAM

    • AWSC 881 mln DRAM (66%)

    • Nor Akunq 74 mln DRAM (97%)

    • Lori WSC 58 mln DRAM (70%)

    • Rest 538 mln DRAM (30%)


    Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

    BASELINE SCENARIO:

    Financing gap (mln DRAM/year)


    Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

    BASELINE SCENARIO:

    Affordability potential revenues

    Optimistic


    Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

    BASELINE SCENARIO:

    Affordability potential revenues

    Pessimistic


    Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

    • BASELINE SCENARIO:

    • Questions

    • Affordability now assumed at 3% (for Water Supply in rural areas), should it be for example 4%?

    • -Sanitation: are the assumptions realistic?

    • -Are projected revenues realistic?


    Armenia npd baseline for rural water supply and sanitation yerevan 22 march 2007

    • BASELINE SCENARIO:

    • Discussion

    • With projected optimistic economic growth, little problems to be expected for affordability

    • With less optimistic assumptions, affordability will remain a problem

    • - Revenues are not enough to cover both O&M and re-investment expenditures (even with increased revenues)


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