The national estuarine eutrophication assessment update
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The National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment Update. S.B. Bricker NOAA, Silver Spring, MD. Tidal Monitoring and Analysis Workgroup January 5, 2006 Joe Macknis Memorial Conference Room , Annapolis , MD. http://ian.umces.edu/neea http://www.eutro.org. The Context and Guiding Legislation.

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The national estuarine eutrophication assessment update

The National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment Update

S.B. Bricker

NOAA, Silver Spring, MD

Tidal Monitoring and Analysis Workgroup

January 5, 2006

Joe Macknis Memorial Conference Room , Annapolis, MD

http://ian.umces.edu/neeahttp://www.eutro.org


The context and guiding legislation

The Context and Guiding Legislation

  • US Clean Water Act of 1972, and US Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act of 1998, EU Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), EU UWWTD and Nitrates Directives – Definition of Sensitive Areas and Vulnerable Zones

  • Eutrophication is a process rather than a state

  • Elevated nutrient concentrations may or may not be associated to human loading

  • Eutrophication may or may not be associated to high nutrient loads or concentrations (e.g. Cloern, Howarth et al, Tett et al)

  • Eutrophication is a significant problem worldwide (US, EU, Baltic, Mediterranean, Japan, Australia and elsewhere)


The problem the assessment approach

Symptoms and Consequences of Nutrient Enrichment

Nutrient InputsPrimarySecondaryConsequences

and ProcessingImpactsImpactsof Symptoms

High algal production

Loss of water clarity

Epiphyte problems

Macroalgal problems

Fish kills

Loss of habitat

Human health risks

Loss of tourism

Closed fishing grounds

Increased

N and P concentration

Loss of SAV

Low D.O

Nuisance/Toxic blooms

The Problem – The Assessment Approach

NEEA/ASSETS: Pressure - State - Response

P: Overall Human Influence (OHI) – Natural processing + Human Nutrient Load

S: Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC) – Condition of waterbody

R: Determination of Future Outlook (DFO) – What will happen in the future?

http://ian.umces.edu/neeahttp://www.eutro.org


The national estuarine eutrophication assessment update

Key Aspects of the NEEA approachOverall objective: to provide coastal managers with scientific information and tools needed to balance environmental, social, and economic goals.

  • The NEEA approach may be divided into three parts:

  • Division of estuaries into homogeneous areas

  • Evaluation of data completeness and reliability

  • Application of indices

  • Tidal freshwater (<0.5 psu)

  • Mixing zone (0.5-25 psu)

  • Seawater zone (>25 psu)

Spatial and temporal quality of datasets (completeness)

Confidence in results (sampling and analytical reliability)

Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC) index

Overall Human Influence (OHI) index

Determination of Future Outlook (DFO) index

ASSETS Rating

State

Pressure

(Response)

P +S +R

Bricker, Ferreira and Simas. 2003 Ecol. Model. 169: 39-60


Overall human influence ohi pressure

Overall Human Influence

Moderate High

High

Moderate

Low

Susceptibility

Moderate Low

Moderate High

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate Low

Low

Low

High

High

Moderate

Low

Nutrient Pressures

Overall Human Influence (OHI) - Pressure

Susceptibility + Nutrient Inputs = Overall Human Influence

dilution & flushingland based or oceanic


Overall human influence ohi pressure1

Overall Human Influence (OHI) - Pressure

  • Calculate mh, the expected nutrient concentration due to land based sources (i.e. no ocean sources);

  • Calculate mb, the expected background nutrient concentration due to the ocean (i.e. no land-based sources);

  • Calculate OHI as the ratio of mh/(mh+mb);

ClassThresholds

Low0 to <0.2

Moderate low0.2 to <0.4

Moderate0.4 to < 0.6

Moderate high0.6 to < 0.8

High>0.8

Equations are based on a simple Vollenweider approach, modified to account for dispersive exchange:

Ocean inputs

Anthropogenic inputs

Estuary

Bricker, S.B., Ferreira, J.G. & Simas, T. 2003. An Integrated Methodology for Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status. Ecological Modelling. 169:39-60.


Overall eutrophic condition oec state

Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC) - State

NEEA Methodology

1) Determine level of expression for Chl a, macroalgae, epiphytes, D.O., SAV loss and HABs for each zone (combines concentration/observance, spatial coverage, frequency of occurrence) by logic tree

2) Determine and overall estuary expression for primary (average symptom values) and secondary (highest symptom value) symptoms

3) Combine overall primary and secondary for overall estuary by matrix

Level of expression detail:

• Concentration Data: cumulative frequency (Chl a = 90th percentile; DO = 10th percentile)

• Spatial area: determined by GIS or Grid


Decision logic example for chl a

Decision/Logic Example for Chl a


Matrix for determining overall eutrophic condition

1

1

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

MODERATE

MODERATE

Primary symptoms high

Primary symptoms high

High primary and

High primary and

High primary and

High primary and

Primary symptoms high

Primary symptoms high

and substantial

and substantial

secondary symptom

secondary symptom

secondary symptom

secondary symptom

symptoms

symptoms

but problems with more

but problems with more

High primary

High primary

secondary symptoms

secondary symptoms

levels indicate serious

levels indicate serious

serious secondary

serious secondary

becoming more

becoming more

eutrophication

eutrophication

eutrophication

eutrophication

symptoms still not being

symptoms still not being

expressed, indicating

expressed, indicating

problems

problems

problems

problems

expressed

expressed

potentially serious

potentially serious

problems

problems

0.6

0.6

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

Primary symptoms

Primary symptoms

Primary symptoms

Primary symptoms

Substantial levels of

Substantial levels of

Substantial levels of

Substantial levels of

MODERATE

MODERATE

beginning to indicate

beginning to indicate

beginning to indicate

beginning to indicate

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

conditions

conditions

conditions

conditions

Level of expression of

Level of expression of

symptoms

symptoms

Moderate primary

Moderate primary

possible problems

possible problems

possible problems

possible problems

occuring

occuring

occuring

occuring

with secondary

with secondary

with secondary

with secondary

eutrophic

eutrophic

conditions is

conditions is

but still very few

but still very few

but still very few

but still very few

symptoms indicating

symptoms indicating

symptoms indicating

symptoms indicating

substantial

substantial

secondary symptoms

secondary symptoms

secondary symptoms

secondary symptoms

serious problems

serious problems

serious problems

serious problems

expressed

expressed

expressed

expressed

0.3

0.3

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

High secondary

High secondary

High secondary

High secondary

High secondary

High secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

LOW

LOW

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms

symptoms

Low primary

Low primary

Level of expression of

Level of expression of

serious problems, but

serious problems, but

serious problems, but

serious problems, but

serious problems, but

serious problems, but

substantial

substantial

substantial

substantial

substantial

substantial

substantial

substantial

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

conditions is

conditions is

low primary indicates

low primary indicates

low primary indicates

low primary indicates

low primary indicates

low primary indicates

conditions, but low

conditions, but low

conditions, but low

conditions, but low

conditions, but low

conditions, but low

conditions, but low

conditions, but low

minimal

minimal

other factors may also

other factors may also

other factors may also

other factors may also

other factors may also

other factors may also

primary indicates other

primary indicates other

primary indicates other

primary indicates other

primary indicates other

primary indicates other

primary indicates other

primary indicates other

be involved in causing

be involved in causing

be involved in causing

be involved in causing

be involved in causing

be involved in causing

factors may be involved

factors may be involved

factors may be involved

factors may be involved

factors may be involved

factors may be involved

factors may be involved

factors may be involved

in causing the conditions

in causing the conditions

conditions

conditions

conditions

0

0

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.6

1

1

Low secondary

Low secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

High secondary

High secondary

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

Matrix for Determining Overall Eutrophic Condition

Overall level of expression of

Overall level of expression of

e

e

eutrophic conditions

utrophic conditions

1

1

1

1

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

MODERATE

MODERATE

MODERATE

MODERATE

Primary symptoms high

Primary symptoms high

Primary symptoms high

Primary symptoms high

High primary and

High primary and

High primary and

High primary and

Primary symptoms high

Primary symptoms high

Primary symptoms high

Primary symptoms high

and substantial

and substantial

and substantial

and substantial

secondary symptom

secondary symptom

secondary symptom

secondary symptom

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

but problems with more

but problems with more

but problems with more

but problems with more

High primary

High primary

High primary

High primary

secondary symptoms

secondary symptoms

secondary symptoms

secondary symptoms

levels indicate serious

levels indicate serious

levels indicate serious

levels indicate serious

serious secondary

serious secondary

serious secondary

serious secondary

becoming more

becoming more

becoming more

becoming more

eutrophication

eutrophication

eutrophication

eutrophication

symptoms still not being

symptoms still not being

symptoms still not being

symptoms still not being

expressed, indicating

expressed, indicating

expressed, indicating

expressed, indicating

problems

problems

problems

problems

expressed

expressed

expressed

expressed

potentially serious

potentially serious

potentially serious

potentially serious

problems

problems

problems

problems

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

MODERATE LOW

MODERATE LOW

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

Primary symptoms

Primary symptoms

Substantial levels of

Substantial levels of

Substantial levels of

Substantial levels of

MODERATE

MODERATE

MODERATE

MODERATE

beginning to indicate

beginning to indicate

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

conditions

conditions

conditions

conditions

Level of expression of

Level of expression of

Level of expression of

Level of expression of

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

Moderate primary

Moderate primary

Moderate primary

Moderate primary

possible problems

possible problems

occuring

occuring

occuring

occuring

with secondary

with secondary

with secondary

with secondary

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

conditions is

conditions is

conditions is

conditions is

but still very few

but still very few

symptoms indicating

symptoms indicating

symptoms indicating

symptoms indicating

substantial

substantial

substantial

substantial

secondary symptoms

secondary symptoms

serious problems

serious problems

serious problems

serious problems

expressed

expressed

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

MODERATE HIGH

High secondary

High secondary

High secondary

High secondary

LOW

LOW

LOW

LOW

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms indicate

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

Low primary

Low primary

Low primary

Low primary

Level of expression of

Level of expression of

Level of expression of

Level of expression of

serious problems, but

serious problems, but

serious problems, but

serious problems, but

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

eutrophic

conditions is

conditions is

conditions is

conditions is

low primary indicates

low primary indicates

low primary indicates

low primary indicates

minimal

minimal

minimal

minimal

other factors may also

other factors may also

other factors may also

other factors may also

be involved in causing

be involved in causing

be involved in causing

be involved in causing

in causing the conditions

in causing the conditions

in causing the conditions

in causing the conditions

conditions

conditions

conditions

conditions

0

0

0

0

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

1

1

1

1

Low secondary

Low secondary

Low secondary

Low secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

Moderate secondary

High secondary

High secondary

High secondary

High secondary

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms

symptoms


Determination of future outlook dfo response

Future Outlook For Eutrophic Conditions

Improve

High

No Change

Worsen

Low

Low

Susceptibility

No Change

Improve

Low

Worsen

High

Moderate

No Change

Worsen

High

Improve

Low

High

Decrease

No Change

Increase

Future Nutrient Pressures

Determination of Future Outlook (DFO) - Response

Future outlook is based on susceptibility and projected changes in nutrient pressures:

Susceptibility is the capacity of a system to dilute or flush nutrients

Nutrient pressure changes are based on expected population changes, future treatment and remediation plans and changes in watershed use (particularly agricultural)


Assets synthesis of ohi oec dfo

ASSETS Synthesis of OHI - OEC - DFO

Grades for OHI, OEC and DFO are combined into a grade of High, Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad with color coding to match the EU WFD convention.

Combinations were distributed heuristically and impossible or improbable combinations were excluded.


Overall human influence ohi

Overall Human Influence (OHI)

RegionOHIPrimary

(No. systems)(M – H) >50% NPS NPS from Ag*

No. Atlantic (18)33780

Mid Atlantic (22)1009160

So. Atlantic (22)8110081

Gulf of Mexico (38)9510085

Pacific (39)828950

US Total (139)689256

as percentage of US systems

US from SPARROW model estimates,

*for US: >30% though most are >70% from ag

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Overall eutrophic conditions oec

http://ian.umces.edu/neea

?

Unknown (12)

?

Moderate (28)

High (12)

Mod Low (23)

Mod High (10)

Low (5)

(as percent of 139 US systems)

Overall Eutrophic Conditions (OEC)


Determination of future outlook dfo

Unknown (0)

?

No Change (32)

Worsen (62)

Improve (6)

(as percent of 139 US systems)

Determination of Future Outlook (DFO)


Assets synthesis

ASSETS Synthesis

High2

Good19

Moderate28

Poor53

Bad18

Unknown19


Why an update why periodic future updates

Why an Update?Why Periodic Future Updates?


Expected change 1990s to 2020

Unknown (0)

?

No Change (32)

Worsen (62)

Improve (6)

(as percent of 139 US systems)

Expected Change 1990s to 2020

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Evaluation of required response monitoring research management

Trend

analysis

Relate Pressure to State

i.e. Modeling, type comparison

Response

No change

Determine (a) Pressures

(b) Modifications to improve State

Make changes (i.e. implement measures)

Interdiction, mitigation, enforcement

Verify change in pressures

Monitor state

Evaluation of State based on eutrophic symptoms

Assess drivers i.e. source apportionment, apply management measures

Nutrients

SewageAgriculture

IndustryAtmosphere

Better

Evaluation of required responseMonitoring, Research, Management

No change

High

Worse

Good

Moderate

Poor

Bad

Anthropogenic

Natural


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