The Changing Demographics
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The Changing Demographics In Southeast Michigan. Xuan Liu November 13, 2008. Outline. Regional Population Trends Structural Changes of Population by Age Variations by Community Implications. Regional Population Trends. Population History.

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The Changing Demographics In Southeast Michigan

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The Changing Demographics

In Southeast Michigan

Xuan Liu

November 13, 2008


Outline

  • Regional Population Trends

  • Structural Changes of Population by Age

  • Variations by Community

  • Implications


Regional Population Trends


Population History


Population and Annual Net MigrationSoutheast Michigan, 2001-2035

5,100,000

5,000,000

4,900,000

4,800,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000

-20,000

-30,000

2013

2001

2014

2031

2021

2009

2025

2017

2034

2011

2022

2003

2019

2029

2020

2004

2005

2016

2023

2032

2033

2035

2024

2008

2010

2026

2002

2012

2018

2028

2030

2015

2006

2007

2027

Source: SEMCOG 2035 Regional Development Forecast


Annual Natural Increase and Net MigrationSoutheast Michigan, 2001-2035


Population History and Forecast


Structural Change

Of

Population Age Groups


Population by Age, 1970


Population by Age, 2000


Population by Age, 2035


Population by Age


Age DistributionSoutheast Michigan, 2000 & 2035

2000

2035


Regional Implications

1. Dramatic increase of senior population

2. Labor shortage

3. Decline of school enrollment

2035


Three Groups of Seniors

2008

Young-Seniors (65-74)

Mature-Seniors (75+)


20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Number of Persons

0

-5,000

-10,000

-15,000

-20,000

5 - 9

10 -

15 -

20 -

25 -

30 -

35 -

40 -

45 -

50 -

55 -

60 -

65 -

70 -

75 -

80 -

85+

14

19

24

29

34

39

44

49

54

59

64

69

74

79

84

Age in 2000 (age 5 and over)

International In-Migration

Migration by AgeSoutheast Michigan, 1995-2000

Source: Census 2000


Migration by AgeSoutheast Michigan, 1995-2000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

Number of Persons

0

-5,000

-10,000

-15,000

-20,000

5 - 9

10 -

15 -

20 -

25 -

30 -

35 -

40 -

45 -

50 -

55 -

60 -

65 -

70 -

75 -

80 -

85+

14

19

24

29

34

39

44

49

54

59

64

69

74

79

84

Age in 2000 (age 5 and over)

Source: Census 2000

International In-Migration

Net Domestic Migration


Migration by AgeSoutheast Michigan


School Age (5-17) Population


Population Age GroupsSoutheast Michigan, 2005 and 2035

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0 to 24

25 to 44

45 to 64

65 plus

2005

2035

Source: SEMCOG 2035 Regional Development Forecast


Aging by Community


Percent Population 65+, 2000

10% or less (109)

More than 10% to 15% (92)

More than 15% to 20% (23)

More than 20% to 25% (7)

More than 25% (2)


Percent Population 65+, 2015

10% or less (1 vs. 109)

More than 10% to 15% (126 vs. 92)

More than 15% to 20% (79 vs. 23)

More than 20% to 25% (25 vs. 7)

More than 25% (2 vs. 2)


Percent Population 65+, 2035

10% or less (0)

More than 10% to 15% (0)

More than 15% to 20% (27)

More than 20% to 25% (114)

More than 25% (92)


Percent Population 65+

2000

2035

10% or less

More than 10% to 15%

More than 15% to 20%

More than 20% to 25%

More than 25%


Communities with 20% or More Population 65 or Older, 2000


Communities with 10,000 or MorePopulation 65 or Older, Year 2000


Implications


Opportunities

  • Significant consumers in the market

  • Senior oriented business growth, and support of new businesses

  • Community engagement and volunteerism

“Aging in place!” Keep our seniors!


Challenges

  • Health Care – Physical and Mental

  • Housing – Availability, Affordability, Modification, and Maintenance

  • Transportation – Accessibility, Walkability, and Transit

  • Services and Safety - Public and Private

  • Quality of Life and Recreation

Build high-quality communities!


Disabled Persons


Disabled Persons


Disabled Persons


Challenges

  • Health Care – Physical and Mental

  • Housing – Availability, Affordability, Modification, and Maintenance

  • Transportation – Accessibility, Walkability, and Transit

  • Services and Safety - Public and Private

  • Quality of Life and Recreation

Build high-quality communities!


Assisted Living and Nursing Homes


Challenges

  • Health Care – Physical and Mental

  • Housing – Availability, Affordability, Modification, and Maintenance

  • Transportation – Accessibility, Walkability, and Transit

  • Services and Safety - Public and Private

  • Quality of Life and Recreation

Build high-quality communities!


Get Ready!

Here they come !


Additional Data

  • Age Forecast by Community

  • Community Profiles at www.semcog.org

  • 2035 SEMCOG Forecast


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