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Changing Demographics and Growth Patterns in Nebraska. Jerry Deichert UNO Center for Public Affairs Research [email protected] 402-554-2134 www.unomaha.edu/cpar www.facebook.com/unocpar Nebraska Chamber of Commerce & Industry 2014 Legislative Caucus/Annual Meeting

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changing demographics and growth patterns in nebraska

Changing Demographics and Growth Patternsin Nebraska

Jerry Deichert

UNO Center for Public Affairs Research

[email protected] 402-554-2134

www.unomaha.edu/cparwww.facebook.com/unocpar

Nebraska Chamber of Commerce & Industry

2014 Legislative Caucus/Annual Meeting

January 30, 2014 Lincoln, NE

three major demographic trends
Three Major Demographic Trends
  • Nebraska’s population is becoming more and more concentrated in its most populous counties.
  • The state’s population is getting older and will continue to age.
  • The state’s population is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse
state population summary
State Population Summary
  • In 2010, Nebraska had a population count of 1,826,341 persons, an increase of 115,076 or 6.7 percent from the 2000 count of 1,711,265
    • Nebraska ranked 30th in percentage change (an increase from 37th in 1990s)
  • Nebraska’s growth rate of 6.7 percent in the 2000s was not as strong as the 8.4 percent rise seen in the 1990s
    • However, it did exceed the average decade growth rate between 1950 and 2000 (5.3 percent)
    • Congressional District boundaries were redrawn by the Unicameral Legislature
  • In 2013, Nebraska’s population was 1,868,516
    • +2.3% since 2010 (ranks 26th)
    • Compares to 2.4% national growth rate
2000 2010 changes for nebraska s congressional districts
2000-2010 Changes for Nebraska’s Congressional Districts

District20002010ChangePercent Change

NE-1st 570,421 626,092 + 55,671 + 9.8%

NE-2nd 570,421 638,871 + 68,450 + 12.0%

NE-3rd 570,421 561,378 - 9,043 - 1.6%

Average district size based on 2010 census is 608,780

DistrictVS. averageEffect of Redistricting

NE-1st +17,312 Gained territory from 2nd district &

lost territory to 3rd district

NE-2nd +30,091 Lost territory

NE-3rd - 47,402 Gained territory

county population summary
County Population Summary
  • 24 Nebraska counties gained population while 69 lost population between 2000 and 2010
    • Compares to 40 growing counties in the 1990s and only 10 in the 1980s
    • 23 counties lost 10% or more of their population between 2000 and 2010
  • Nebraska’s 3 most populous counties, Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy counties are among the state’s fastest growing
    • Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy accounted for 52.6 percent of Nebraska’s population in 2010, up from 48.9 percent in 2000
    • These 3 counties grew 14.9 percent between 2000 and 2010 while the remaining 90 counties lost 1.1 percent
county population summary continued
County Population Summary (Continued)
  • Metropolitan (2013 definition) counties added population, but nonmetropolitan counties lost population
    • Metropolitan 13.0%
    • Nonmetropolitan -2.5%
      • Micropolitan 1.3%
      • Largest city 2,500 to 9,999 persons -4.4%
      • Largest city under 2,500 persons -7.7%
  • Nebraska’s legislative districts also were redrawn with metro areas gaining more representation.
    • Average legislative district size based on 2010 Census is 37,272 persons.
    • Legislative district 49 was moved from Northwest Nebraska to Sarpy County.
slide13
Impact of the 2010 Census on redistricting

Douglas 14 districts fully within its borders

Lancaster 7 fully in

2 partially in

Sarpy 4 fully in

1 partially in

Prior to redistricting

Douglas11 districts fully within its borders

4 partially in

Lancaster 6 fully in

2 partially in

Sarpy 3 fully in

4 partially in

natural change
Natural Change
  • Natural Change = Births - Deaths
  • 2012 births were 25,939
    • Slight increase from 2011 which was 3rd year of decline
    • 2011 was lowest number since 2002
  • 2000 to 2010
    • Much of the decade population growth stemmed from about 109,500 more births than deaths
    • The 2000s “natural change” rate of 6.4 percent was higher than the 1990s (5.4 percent)
    • 44 counties had more deaths than births
net migration
Net Migration
  • 2010 to 2013 inmigration was 7,322
    • International 10,357
    • Domestic -3,035
  • 2000 to 2010
    • The state experienced a net inmigration of about 5,600 persons
    • The 2000s net migration rate of 0.3 percent was below a 3.1 percent inmigration in the 1990s
    • The 1990s and 2000s are the only decades since 1930 to have net inmigration
    • Only 14 counties had net inmigration
  • 1990 to 2000
    • Added about 48,000 persons during the decade (3.1 percent)
    • 42 counties had net inmigration or no net outmigration
race and hispanic latino origin
Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin
  • Nebraska’s population growth is predominately in minority racial and ethnic groups
    • Hispanic or Latino (of any race) grew by 77 percent
      • Accounted for nearly two-thirds of state’s overall growth
    • The White, non Hispanic population barely increased (0.4%)
  • In 2010, Minority population was 17.9 percent of total
    • Up from 12.7 in 2000 and 7.4 percent in 1990
  • Minority population is much younger
    • Relatively more under 40
    • Relatively fewer 40+
race and hispanic latino origin change 2000 2010
Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin Change 2000-2010
  • Total population 6.7 percent
  • Not Hispanic/Latino Origin 2.6 percent
    • White alone 0.4 percent
    • African American or Black alone 19.9 percent
    • American Indian & Alaska Native alone 9.9 percent
    • Asian alone 47.2 percent
    • Nat. Hawaiian, Pac. Islander alone 49.3 percent
    • Some other race alone 59.5 percent
    • Two or more races 60.6 percent
  • Hispanic/Latino Origin 77.3 percent
  • Minority 50.7 percent
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