Coal-fired electricity generation

1. Coal-fired electricity generation • Accounts for 39% of world electricity production – the most important source of electricity in OECD and non-OECD. • Accounts for more than 50% of electricity generation in Australia, China, India, Australia, Eastern Europe and the USA. • Coal expected to remain the most important source of electricity through to 2030. Capacity will grow by 120% (two-thirds of this in developing countries) – $1.3 trillion of investment. • Predominantly domestic good: 3% traded.

2. Projected world electricity production to 2030, by fuel source Source: World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA

3. Coal-fired electricity emissions • 70% of all power sector electricity and heat emissions. • 15.8% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions (22% for electricity and heat). • Projected to rise 60% by 2030 with developing countries accounting for 90% of this growth. • Higher plant thermal efficiencies are the key to achieving lower emissions intensities. • CO2 emissions intensities vary significantly: Japan’s is 35% lower than India’s.

4. Coal-fired electricity generation CO2 emissions intensities by region, 2002

5. Scope for progress • In 2002, average thermal efficiency in the OECD was 36%, in developing countries it was 30%. In 2030, expected to rise to 40% and 36% respectively. • State-of-the-art pulverised plants have efficiencies as high as 47%. IGCC (gasification) plants 50%. Thermal efficiencies of up to 56% is believed to be possible. • If all regions were to achieve the same efficiency level of Japan emissions could be reduced by 17% in 2020. • Major barrier to reducing emissions: capital costs. • Capture and storage technologies is probably 10 years off. Major technical and cost challenges.