Leading in a Time of Change: Insights for the Future

1. Leading in a Time of Change:Insights for the Future Natalie Schoch October 3, 2002

2. Be the change you wish to see in the world But How?

3. Leading Change(from John P. Kotter, 1996) • Establishing a sense of urgency • Creating a guiding coalition • Developing vision and strategy • Communicating the change vision • Empowering broad-based action • Generating short-term wins • Consolidating gains and producing more change • Anchoring new approaches in the culture

4. Leading Change(from John P. Kotter, 1996) • Establishing a sense of urgency • Creating a guiding coalition • Developing vision and strategy • Communicating the change vision • Empowering broad-based action • Generating short-term wins • Consolidating gains and producing more change • Anchoring new approaches in the culture

5. Hope is not a strategy

6. The Future: Don’t just sit there—LEAD Agenda • Framework for thinking about the future • A systems approach • Trends to consider for • Future Policy Making • Future Practice • Future Research

7. Paradox of Time • The Past--No longer exists and can’t be changed but is all we know • The Present--Instantaneous boundary between the past and future • The Future--Has never existed but is all we have left Source: Edward Cornish, Futurist, Jul-Aug 2001

8. Futures Framework Infinite Futures

9. The Illusion of Certainty • The phonograph has no commercial value—T. Edison, 1880 • By 2000, machines will be producing so much that everyone in the US will, in effect, be independently wealthy. With government benefits, even non-working families will have an annual income of $30-40,000 (in 1966 dollars)—Time, 1966 • Internal sales forecast for PCs for the 1980s: 295,000 Actual sales: over 25,000,000—IBM • Builder’s of Natalie’s house in 1910, “We don’t need to leave much space between these houses. People like us will never be able to afford cars.”

10. Yes Certain Uncertain Good Bad Wild Cards No Discontinuities Weak Signals Types of Trends

11. Trends are patterns Find the Fs… FINISHED FILES ARE THE RESULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTIFIC STUDY COMBINED WITH THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS.

12. We all have mental maps that are built on assumptions about patterns We need to constructively challenge our assumptions (look for discontinuities, weak signals, etc.) Mental Maps Better Decisions

13. If you get the facts wrong, you get the map wrong If you get the map wrong, you do the wrong things It’s really hard to change the map. Remember this about Maps

14. “Great companies can fail precisely because they do everything right” Getting the Map Wrong The Innovator’s Dilemma Clay Christensen, Harvard Business School Press, 1997

15. The future is uncharted territory The past is home sweet home The present is putting out fires The Setting for Change

16. The Innovator’s Dilemma ? ? ? ? ? The Managers The Scientists

17. Trends/Futures World Systems Thinking, The “Big Picture,” (Avoiding the “Logic of Failure”) STEEP Social Political The Food Industry Kellogg Technical Economic Environmental Over a longer time frame than is typically considered Getting the Map Right

18. Taking a systems approach helps identify stakeholders The End of Shareholder Value Allen Kennedy,Perseus Press, 2000 Who Draws the Map Is Critical

19. Personal Results Organizational Results Networks of Committed People Leading Change: Iisaak Context of Limits The Fifth Discipline Peter Senge, Doubleday, 1990

20. Scenario Planning as a systems tool for thinking about the future The Art of the Long View Peter Schwartz, Doubleday, 1996 Drawing the Map

21. Yes Good Bad No Drawing the Map: Scenarios • Focal Issue • List of variables • Decide two most important and most uncertain • Create scenarios (with catchy titles) • Monitor and watch for guideposts

22. “Virtual” Global Village Big Winners, Big Losers Free trade Technology dependent Community as Place Tug-of-War Competitive Communities Subsidies for Individuals Civic Entrepreneurs and economic diversity Rural Summit Scenario Global People-Driven Market-Driven Local

23. http://wwics.si.edu/lookingforward/index.htm

24. Try to challenge some assumptions Trends • Globalization • Demographic • Lifestyles • Technology • Environment

25. Globalization Driven by: Democratization of technology finance information Integrated Economies Politics Cultures Implications: Expanded markets; End of the nation state? Superpowers: Countries Companies Super-empowered individuals Thomas Friedman, Lexus and the Olive Tree, 1999

26. What Indicators of Progress should we use? Economic only (Are we all in the same economic boat?)* Add social and environmental factors, sustainability, livability (Triple Bottom Line) Indicators of Progress *Robert Reich, Work of Nations, 1991

27. Time Famine • Urbanization and suburbanization • Information and technology explosion Stress Less Demographics and Lifestyles

28. Economic prosperity—real and perceived • Aging society • Immigration and diversity US in 2010 Demographics and Lifestyles

29. Technology Honda Insight Smart Potato Toyota Prius Intelligent Transportation Systems

30. Agriculture and Environment • Decade of public acceptance of Global Warming • Water concerns are mounting • Recognizing urban and rural issues are intertwined (livability and sustainability) • Learn from our mistakes (e.g. wetlands policy; public v. private investments) • Rethinking energy policies • Food safety and security

31. We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children Native American Proverb