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Scott Prosise

Ocean Prediction Center. 2011 Hurricane Season. Scott Prosise. Thanks to Tim Holley. 2011 – Third year of enhanced/ detailed extratropical guidance.

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Scott Prosise

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  1. Ocean Prediction Center 2011 Hurricane Season Scott Prosise Thanks to Tim Holley

  2. 2011 – Third year of enhanced/ detailed extratropical guidance • OPC will provide a forecast for location, maximum sustained winds and maximum extent of these winds in each quadrant for overwater extratropical cyclones N of 25N. • Provide estimated time of full transition from tropical cyclone to extratropical. • Provides a brief discussion, via email of forecast reasoning for the above forecast • Radius of 12 ft seas north of 31N

  3. Tropical Storm Bret Tropical Storm Cindy Tropical Storm Emily Tropical Storm Franklin Tropical Storm Gert Hurricane Irene Tropical Systems in 2011 OPC provided extratropical/post-tropical guidance for 12 of 19 tropical cyclones • Tropical Storm Jose • Hurricane Katia • Hurricane Maria • Hurricane Ophelia • Hurricane Philippe • Tropical Storm Sean

  4. Comparison From Previous Years YEAR NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES 2011 185 Extratropical forecast points 2010171 Extrtropical forecast points 2009 85 Extratropical forecast

  5. 24 Hour Forecast Error

  6. 48 Hour Forecast Error

  7. 72 Hour Forecast Error

  8. 96 Hour Forecast Error

  9. 120 Hour Forecast Error

  10. OPC VERIFICATION • Still done manually. Slow and labor intensive. • Prone to errors and must be re-checked. • 2010 verification need to be recalculated • Intensity forecast… • 62% over forecast by 5.5 kt • 19% under forecast by 5.7 kt • 19% were exact (zero error)

  11. Verification … Irene and Katia dominated, producing about half of our extratropical forecast Katia… timing problems lead to some large errors. Katia still identifiable as a weak cyclone heading into Russia … 75 Kt gust at Glan Ogle, Scotland (9/12)

  12. T.S. Bret

  13. T.S. Cindy Seas - 52 ft Wind 65 kt

  14. T.S. Emily

  15. Hurricane Irene

  16. T.S. Jose

  17. Hurricane Katia

  18. Hurricane Maria

  19. Maria get absorbed into extratropical low over Labrodor

  20. Hurricane Ophelia

  21. Hurricane Philippe

  22. Hurricane Sean

  23. All Extratropical tracks 2011

  24. Problems? Changes? • No significant problems noted in 2011 • Change work flow more divided. • Three desks, Atlantic Regional, High Seas and Outlook desk all issue tropical forecast

  25. Challenges for 2012 • New verification program sought • Incorporate GOES Airmass RGB Sounder products into assessing extratropical transition

  26. The End Thank You Scott Prosise Ocean Prediction Center 2011 NOAA Hurricane Conference Photos courtesy of…

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