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Ocean Prediction Center. 2012 Hurricane Season. Scott Prosise Tim Holley. OPC Support for NHC … extratropical guidance. OPC will provide a forecast for location, maximum sustained winds and maximum extent of these winds in each quadrant for overwater extratropical cyclones N of 25N.

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Scott prosise tim holley

Ocean Prediction Center

2012 Hurricane Season

Scott ProsiseTim Holley


Opc support for nhc extratropical guidance
OPC Support for NHC…extratropical guidance

  • OPC will provide a forecast for location, maximum sustained winds and maximum extent of these winds in each quadrant for overwater extratropical cyclones N of 25N.

  • Provide estimated time of full transition from tropical cyclone to extratropical.

  • Provide a brief discussion, via email of forecast reasoning for the above forecast

  • Radius of 12 ft seas north of 31N


Tropical systems in 2012

Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical Storm Beryl

Hurricane Chris

Tropical Storm Debby

Hurricane Gordon

Hurricane Kirk

Tropical Systems in 2012

OPC provided extratropical/post-tropical guidance for 12 of 19 tropical cyclones

  • Hurricane Leslie

  • Hurricane Michael

  • Hurricane Nadine

  • Hurricane Rafael

  • Hurricane Sandy

  • Tropical Storm Tony


Forecast issued
Forecast Issued

YEAR NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

2012 176 Advisories

467 Extratropical forecast points

( 113 or 24% for Nadine )

2011 185 Extratropical forecast points







Opc verification
OPC VERIFICATION

  • Still done manually. Slow and labor intensive.

  • Intensity forecast…

    • Slightly under forecast (< 5 kt) 24 and 48 hours

    • Slightly over forecast (< 5 kt) 96 and 120 hours

    • 27 forecast were exact (zero error)



Leslie verification killer 120 hour forecast error 1209 nm
Leslie – Verification killer! 120 hour forecast error = 1209 NM


Extratropical life
Extratropical Life

  • Longest life: Chris - 4.25 days

  • Shortest life: Kirk – Instant dissipate

  • Landfall:

    • Leslie – Iceland

    • Rafael – Portugal

    • Sandy - USA
























Hurricane sandy2
Hurricane Sandy

47 ft seas 21Z - 10/29/12


Hurricane sandy3
Hurricane Sandy

NPP VIIRS Day – Night Band 10/29/12




2012 extratropical post tropical track composite
2012 Extratropical Post-Tropical Track Composite


Problems
Problems?

  • No significant problems noted in 2012

  • Work flow i.e. extratropical forecast responsibility more divided.

  • Three desks, Atlantic Regional, High Seas and Outlook desk all issue tropical forecast


The End Thank You

Scott Prosise

Ocean Prediction Center

2013 NOAA Hurricane Conference


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