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Ocean Prediction Center. 2012 Hurricane Season. Scott Prosise Tim Holley. OPC Support for NHC … extratropical guidance. OPC will provide a forecast for location, maximum sustained winds and maximum extent of these winds in each quadrant for overwater extratropical cyclones N of 25N.

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Scott prosise tim holley

Ocean Prediction Center

2012 Hurricane Season

Scott ProsiseTim Holley


Opc support for nhc extratropical guidance

OPC Support for NHC…extratropical guidance

  • OPC will provide a forecast for location, maximum sustained winds and maximum extent of these winds in each quadrant for overwater extratropical cyclones N of 25N.

  • Provide estimated time of full transition from tropical cyclone to extratropical.

  • Provide a brief discussion, via email of forecast reasoning for the above forecast

  • Radius of 12 ft seas north of 31N


Tropical systems in 2012

Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical Storm Beryl

Hurricane Chris

Tropical Storm Debby

Hurricane Gordon

Hurricane Kirk

Tropical Systems in 2012

OPC provided extratropical/post-tropical guidance for 12 of 19 tropical cyclones

  • Hurricane Leslie

  • Hurricane Michael

  • Hurricane Nadine

  • Hurricane Rafael

  • Hurricane Sandy

  • Tropical Storm Tony


Forecast issued

Forecast Issued

YEARNUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

2012 176 Advisories

467 Extratropical forecast points

( 113 or 24% for Nadine )

2011 185 Extratropical forecast points


Scott prosise tim holley

24 Hour Forecast Error


48 hour forecast error

48 Hour Forecast Error


72 hour forecast error

72 Hour Forecast Error


96 hour forecast error

96 Hour Forecast Error


120 hour forecast error

120 Hour Forecast Error


Opc verification

OPC VERIFICATION

  • Still done manually. Slow and labor intensive.

  • Intensity forecast…

    • Slightly under forecast (< 5 kt) 24 and 48 hours

    • Slightly over forecast (< 5 kt) 96 and 120 hours

    • 27 forecast were exact (zero error)


Sep 8 500 mb analysis and 96 hr forecast

Sep 8 - 500 MB analysis and 96 hr forecast

Leslie


Leslie verification killer 120 hour forecast error 1209 nm

Leslie – Verification killer! 120 hour forecast error = 1209 NM


Extratropical life

Extratropical Life

  • Longest life: Chris - 4.25 days

  • Shortest life: Kirk – Instant dissipate

  • Landfall:

    • Leslie – Iceland

    • Rafael – Portugal

    • Sandy - USA


T s alberto

T.S Alberto


T s beryl

T.S. Beryl


T s beryl1

T.S. Beryl


Hurricane chris

Hurricane Chris


Hurricane chris1

Hurricane Chris


T s debby

T.S. Debby


T s debby1

T.S. Debby


Hurricane gordon

Hurricane Gordon


Hurricane gordon1

Hurricane Gordon


Hurricane kirk

Hurricane Kirk


Hurricane kirk1

Hurricane Kirk


Hurricane leslie

Hurricane Leslie


Hurricane leslie1

Hurricane Leslie


Hurricane michael

Hurricane Michael


Hurricane michael1

Hurricane Michael


Hurricane nadine

Hurricane Nadine


Hurricane nadine1

Hurricane Nadine


Hurricane rafael

Hurricane Rafael


Hurricane rafael1

Hurricane Rafael


Post tropical rafael oct 18 03z

POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL OCT 18 03Z


Hurricane sandy

Hurricane Sandy


Hurricane sandy1

Hurricane Sandy


Hurricane sandy2

Hurricane Sandy

47 ft seas 21Z - 10/29/12


Hurricane sandy3

Hurricane Sandy

NPP VIIRS Day – Night Band 10/29/12


Hurricane tony

Hurricane Tony


Hurricane tony1

Hurricane Tony


2012 extratropical post tropical track composite

2012 Extratropical Post-Tropical Track Composite


Problems

Problems?

  • No significant problems noted in 2012

  • Work flow i.e. extratropical forecast responsibility more divided.

  • Three desks, Atlantic Regional, High Seas and Outlook desk all issue tropical forecast


Scott prosise tim holley

The End Thank You

Scott Prosise

Ocean Prediction Center

2013 NOAA Hurricane Conference


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