1 / 20

Regional Air Quality Modeling: Long Range Global Change Simulations

Regional Air Quality Modeling: Long Range Global Change Simulations. How will air quality change in the future? IPCC Global Emission Scenarios: A2—Business as usual. Global to Regional Scale Modeling. IPCC - A2 scenario “Business as usual”. Simulate two 10-year periods Current 1990 – 1999

fallon
Download Presentation

Regional Air Quality Modeling: Long Range Global Change Simulations

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Regional Air Quality Modeling: Long Range Global Change Simulations

  2. How will air quality change in the future?IPCC Global Emission Scenarios: A2—Business as usual

  3. Global to Regional Scale Modeling • IPCC - A2 scenario“Business as usual” • Simulate two 10-year periods • Current 1990 – 1999 • Future 2045 – 2054 • Sensitivity Analyses • Emissions, meteorology & BC effects • Land management scenarios

  4. PNW: 15 Obs. Sites NMW: 20 Obs. Sites Current Climate Simulation: Comparison to Observations CMAQ Simulations for current decade at 36 km grid scale vs EPA AIRS monitoring data

  5. Future vs Current Conditions: July Temperatures Daily Average Maximum current change

  6. Seattle Daytime Meteorology

  7. Chemical Boundary Condition Changes west up to 500 mb north

  8. anthropogenic July Emission Changes: NOX current change

  9. biogenic July Emission Changes: VOC current change

  10. Sensitivity Analysis • Sensitivity simulations for five July’s: • current met, current BC’s, current emissions: CUR • future met, future BC’s, future emissions: FUT • future met, current BC’s, current emissions: MET • current met, future BC’s, current emissions: BC • current met, current BC’s, future emissions: EMIS

  11. FUT-CUR (10.4 ppbv) EMIS-CUR (4.2 ppbv) CUR (70.1 ppbv) BC-CUR (6.6 ppbv) MET-CUR (1.4 ppbv) Results: O3 95th percentile

  12. FUT-CUR: 257% / 69% EMIS-CUR: 72% / 27% # of U.S. grid hours/day where 8-hr O3 > 80 ppbv # of U.S. grids with at least one grid hour where 8-hr O3 > 80 ppbv CUR: 1435 / 1726 BC-CUR: 113% / 54% MET-CUR: 24% / 10% Results: 80 ppbv exceedences

  13. PNW 8-hr Average O3 Distributions Seattle Portland Boise

  14. FUT-CUR: +5.7 EMIS-CUR: +10.0 CUR: 20.7 μg m-3 BC-CUR: +0.1 MET-CUR: -2.9 Results: 1-hr PM2.5 95th percentile

  15. FUT-CUR: 400% / 64% EMIS-CUR: 1117% / 163% CUR: 266 / 1107 BC-CUR: 3% / 0% MET-CUR: -83% / -71% Results: 24-hr PM2.5 35 μg/m3 exceedences

  16. Results: Daily Maximum 24-hr PM2.5

  17. Land Management Scenario: Widespread Use of Tree Plantations July Isoprene Emission Capacity (30 oC) Future Current Future with Plantations

  18. Changes in 8-hr ozone concentrations for enhanced tree plantations in the future

  19. Summary • Jump to the Future: • O3 increases of 5 to 10 ppbv • significant increases in occurrences above 80 ppbv • PM2.5 significant increases--5.7 ug/m3 above 20 ug/m3 currently • Large increase in number of PM2.5 exceedences of new 24 hr standard • Sensitivity Analyses: • future O3 changes mainly due to changes in chemical BC and US anthropogenic emissions • Increases in BVOC emissions due to climate change are offset by reduction in forested areas • Enhanced plantation scenario for carbon sequestration could have significant AQ impact • Next Steps • Analyses of PNW 12 km decade simulations • Further sensitivity analyses • New STAR grant focused on uncertainty and ensemble simulations • RGI Deposition Study • analysis of 12 km current/future decade simulations for N, S, O3 deposition • Analysis of AIRPACT-3 long term 2004 evaluation run for N, S, O3, and Hg deposition

  20. Collaborators & Support • Collaborating research groups • UW: Clifford Mass and Eric Salathe • NCAR: Alex Guenther and Christine Wiedinmyer • USDA – Forest Service Don McKenzie & Sim Larkin • USDA – NRCS Susan O’Neill • Funding sources • US EPA STAR grant (RD830962010)

More Related