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The MIT IGSM: Climate Change, Urban Air Pollution and Long Range Transport

The MIT IGSM: Climate Change, Urban Air Pollution and Long Range Transport. Presented by John Reilly Chien Wang, Monika Mayer, Mustafa Babiker, Marcus Sarofim and others in MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change are major contributors to this work.

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The MIT IGSM: Climate Change, Urban Air Pollution and Long Range Transport

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  1. The MIT IGSM: Climate Change, Urban Air Pollution and Long Range Transport Presented by John Reilly Chien Wang, Monika Mayer, Mustafa Babiker, Marcus Sarofim and others in MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change are major contributors to this work. Prepared for the Workshop on Climate Change and Air Quality: Part I - Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Pollutants Research Triangle, North Carolina Dec 3-5, 2001

  2. MIT IGSM Structure Uncertainty in Emissions Some Long Range Transport Results for Current Emissions Future Directions Outline

  3. EPPA is a Computable General Equilibrium model of the world economy

  4. EPPA is Part of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM)

  5. EPPA Model Dimensions: Standard Version

  6. EPPA: An Economic/Emissions Model

  7. 2-D GISS with Urban Chemistry Resolved 3-D CCM3 with Urban Chemistry Resolved Embedded Urban Chemistry is a DEM fit of the CIT urban model (McCrae) Chemistry-Climate Model

  8. Distributions for 8 key parameters: Labor Productivity Growth (1) Energy Efficiency Improvement Rate (1) GHG and Other Pollutant Emissions Factors (6) Deterministic Equivalent Modeling Method (DEMM) ~1300 model runs to fit 4th order polynomial 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of polynomial fit to construct distributions. Construct scenarios with known probability characteristics. Simulate these scenarios through the MIT IGSM. Uncertainty Analysis Approach

  9. Probabilistic Scenario Design

  10. Aerosol Forcing

  11. Global Average Surface Temperature Change from 1990

  12. High, Low, and Reference Emissions Scenarios Organic Carbon Emissions 140 120 100 80 Organic Carbon Emissions, Tg 60 40 20 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year

  13. High, Reference, and Low Emissions Scenarios Black Carbon Emissions 50 40 30 Black Carbon Emissions, Tg 20 10 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year

  14. Improve Inventory for 1995-2000, global estimates and spatial distribution Study Historical Uncertainty in Emissions Compare Simulated Regional Loadings with any Available Data Better Data—More and More Regular Observations Evaluate Links between Climate, Climate Policy and Pollution Levels Future Directions

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