Water supply procedures (annual & first of month)

CBRFC Water Supply Training – Chapter II • Water supply procedures (annual & first of month) • Basin water supply procedure documentation material (what works best) • Data gathering, processing, posting, and SHEF • Coordination with NRCS & WFO’s • Water Supply Products (dissemination, content, and consistency)

Autumn / Off-Season (Annual Checklist) • Review data requirements of SWS – Modify/Adjust equations as necessary • Review data requirements with Service Hydrologists, Agencies • Obtain historical data / previous year - (in support of equations, publications, etc.) • Review previous years runoff (verification tools, NRCS contact, etc.)  success / fail • Coordinate with users / customers regarding forecast needs • Verify input / driver files are updated and in the common directory • Verify disseminated products ( ESG / ESP / etc.) are in common directory • Review NWSRFS segments prior to gages freezing (baseflow simulations on track?) • Review new soil moisture output (text-maps)

Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month) • Data Acquisition / Posting / QC • Forecast Development • Product Development • Product/Information Dissemination

Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month) • Data Acquisition / Posting / QC

Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month) • Forecast Development

Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month) • Product Development

Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month) • Product / Information Dissemination

Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month) • Other

Basin Water Supply Reference Documentation • Hardcopy ( online*?) • What type of information should be included? • List of forecast points / associated PED (qadjust) • Data sources & contact information * • Primary flow data (usgs, bor, dwb, other agencies, database calculation) • Diversion data (utilized in qadjust) • Reservoir Storage (BOR, SRP, CAP, CUWCD, NRCS, etc.) • Inputs requirements for forecast procedures (non-automated – SOI, etc.) • Unique specific forecast point information (regulated forecast, alternate period) • Unique forecasts products required in the basin (associated procedures) • Special seasonal flow requirements / studies (week-week-2 week) • Special reservoir management (intermittent or seasonal) • Basin customers and communication requirements • References for ESP / ESG narratives • Forecast distribution requirements • Peak flow forecast points / procedures / requirements / distribution

Basin Water Supply Reference Documentation Example (forecast pts, diversion requirements, sources, etc.)

Basin Water Supply Reference Documentation Example (forecast points and adjustments)

Example (special reservoir management forecast) SLCESPUT COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTERNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH The 6 to 10 day forecast is a National Weather Service forecast productprovided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction.6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST APRIL 3 TO APRIL 7 2004 ISSUED MARCH 28AREA PRECIPITATION TEMPERATUREN UTAH Below normal Near normal RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT FORECAST FOR MARCH 30, 2004The following are regulated (observed) values and are based on forecast temperatures 10 days into the future and precipitation3 days into the future. Beyond those time periods climatology or"normals" are used.Vol is volume in 1000'S of acre-feet (kaf).Peak is maximum mean daily peak in cubic feet per second (cfs).________________________________________________________________LITTLE BEAR NR PARADISE: This is an inflow forecast for Hyrum Res. FORECASTS: WEEK 1 WEEK 2 WEEKS 3 AND 4 03/30 - 04/06 04/06 - 04/13 04/13 - 04/27 Vol Peak Vol Peak Vol Peak 1.4 130 1.5 140 5.2 320THE NEXT FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED APRIL 1, 2004

Example (seasonal weekly peak flow/reservoir management forecast) SLCESPCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTERNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAHThe 6 to 10 day forecast is a National Weather Service forecast productprovided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction.6 TO 10 DAY FORCAST April 30 TO May 04 2006 ISSUED April 24AREA PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURESW WYOMING Near normal Above NormalE UTAH Near normal Above Normal W COLORADO Near normal Above normalRESERVOIR MANAGEMENT FORECAST FOR April 24, 2006The following are regulated (observed) values and are based on forecast temperatures 10 days into the future and precipitation5 days into the future from meteorlogical models. Beyond those time periods climatology or "normals" are used.Vol is volume in 1000'S of acre-feet (kaf).Peak is maximum mean daily peak in cubic feet per second (cfs).________________________________________________________________YAMPA AT DEERLODGE PARK: At this time the most probable seasonalpeak (50% exceedance value) is expected between 14000 and 17000 mean daily CFS and will occur between early and late May. Meteorological models are starting to indicate a moderate tostrong ridge and warming possible the first week of May. This could push the Peak to occur during the first 2 weeks of May. FORECASTS:EXCEEDANCE: 90% 75% MP(50%) 25% 10%SEASONAL 12000 13000 14900 17100 200004/24 - 5/01 8000 9600 10500 11500 120005/01 - 5/08 8500 8900 11500 12500 160005/08 - 5/15 9300 11500 12100 13500 149005/15 - 5/22 12000 13000 14900 17100 20000MP = Most Probable (50% exceedance probability) THE NEXT FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON April 26th, 2006

CBRFC Water Supply Products A methodology has been developed over time; out of best practices, user feedback, NWS policies, and available resources. • Products / Guidance • What is issued / Who issues / When is it issued • Product Dissemination (How is it issued) • RFC AWIPS products to support WFO’s / WFO Products • RFC products in support of specific customers • Product Content • Consistency of content among product types / w.s. forecasters • Pertinent information • Guidelines and best practices (the late Jeff Smith) • Narrative reviews • Coordination requirements between focal points (first of month) • Archiving Products / Guidance • RFC AWIPS Products • Non-AWIPS format products (email dist., etc.) • Opportunities exist for improvement / enhancement

Water Supply Products / Guidance / Dissemination Monthly Products: Online publications Extended-Range Streamflow Prediction Product (ESP) - Supply Extended-Range Streamflow Guidance (ESG) – Peaks / Flood Online peak flow publication Westwide files to NRCS Files in support of Western Water Supply page Bi-Monthly Products (mid-month): Extended-Range Streamflow Prediction Products (ESP) - Supply Weekly Products: Reservoir management forecasts – (ESP or ESG) Online peak flow publication updates Intermittent (As needed) Products: On the fly updates to any of the above forecasts Special, customer specific, reservoir management / peak flow forecasts (ESP or ESG) Nationally scheduled ESG dissemination dates (required to support WFO) Email communicated forecasts / updates * All products should be copied to the common output directory *

SLCESPAZ: Arizona Water Supply Outlook (State Outlook) * Issued: First of month & mid month – Jan to May Issued by: Lower Colorado Focal Point SLCESPCO: Reservoir Management Forecast (Yampa River peak / volumes) * Issued: Weekly, as determined by Reclamation – March to June Issued by: Green Basin Focal Point Products Routinely Issued by Water Supply Focal Points ESP – Water Supply Oriented Products SLCESPSTR: Upper Colorado Unregulated Reservoir Forecasts * Issued: First of month & mid month – year round Issued by: Upper Colorado Focal Point SLCESPAZ: Reservoir Management Forecast (Lake Mead intervening flow & tributaries) * Issued: Twice monthly – year round (outside of Jan-May) Issued by: Lower Colorado Focal Point SLCESPCO: Colorado Water Supply Outlook (covers the UC, SJ, GU, GN) Issued: First of month & mid month – Jan to June Issued by: Upper Colorado Focal Point SLCESPCO: Reservoir Management Forecast (Gunnison – San Juan peaks/volumes) * Issued: Weekly, as determined by Customer – March to June Issued by: Gunnison Basin Focal Point – San Juan Basin Focal Point SLCESPWY: Wyoming Water Supply Outlook (covers the GN, GB (Bear) ) Issued: First of month & mid month – Jan to June Issued by: Green Basin Focal Point * Also disseminated via email distribution list

SLCESPUT: Reservoir Management Forecasts (Provo-Bear-Weber) * Issued: Weekly, as determined by the customer – March to June Issued by: Great Basin Focal Point SLCESPUT: Utah Supply Outlook (State Outlook) Issued: First of month – Jan to Jun Issued by: Great Basin Focal Point SLCESPNM: New Mexico Water Supply Outlook (San Juan) Issued: First of month – Jan to Jun Issued by: San Juan Focal Point SLCESG(UT, CO, AZ, WY, NM): Flood Potential Outlook (CBRFC basins with the States) Issued: First on Month – Jan to June. Updates as needed & on NWS required dates. Issued by: UT: Great Basin Focal Point (Includes GB, Virgin, San Juan, Lower Green) CO: Upper Colorado Focal Point (Includes UC, SJ, Gunnison, Green-Yampa/White) WY: Green Basin Focal Point (Includes upper Green, GB-Bear) SJ: San Juan Basin Focal Point (San Juan Basin) AZ: Lower Colorado Focal Point (All of Arizona) Products routinely issued by Water Supply Focal Points ESG – Peaks / Flood oriented products ESG products contain reference to our online peak flow publication starting in March * Also disseminated via email distribution list

ESG – Extended-Range Streamflow Guidance Intended for extended-range hydrologic forecast information of an advisory or descriptive nature. Typically includes flood potential guidance and discussions of extended-range hydrologic forecasts. RFC Product Content (per NWSI 10-1701 RFC Product Specification Policy) ESP – Extended-Range Streamflow Prediction Product Intended for extended-range hydrologic forecast information of a numeric or probabilistic nature. Typically includes water supply forecasts, drought and water resource guidance, and long-term probabilistic forecast information. Both products are not distributed over NWS-supported public dissemination pathways. They are provided to partners through appropriate means including the Internet.

Example (special reservoir management forecast) SLCESPUT COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTERNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH The 6 to 10 day forecast is a National Weather Service forecast productprovided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction.6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST APRIL 3 TO APRIL 7 2004 ISSUED MARCH 28AREA PRECIPITATION TEMPERATUREN UTAH Below normal Near normal RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT FORECAST FOR MARCH 30, 2004The following are regulated (observed) values and are based on forecast temperatures 10 days into the future and precipitation3 days into the future. Beyond those time periods climatology or"normals" are used.Vol is volume in 1000'S of acre-feet (kaf).Peak is maximum mean daily peak in cubic feet per second (cfs).________________________________________________________________LITTLE BEAR NR PARADISE: This is an inflow forecast for Hyrum Res. FORECASTS: WEEK 1 WEEK 2 WEEKS 3 AND 4 03/30 - 04/06 04/06 - 04/13 04/13 - 04/27 Vol Peak Vol Peak Vol Peak 1.4 130 1.5 140 5.2 320THE NEXT FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED APRIL 1, 2004

Preliminary water supply forecasts Email distribution list for the Utah water users (Utah Points) Guidelines / Best (historical) Practices ESP Future Climate (6-10) – Reference CPC outlooks for short term forecasts. Include basin summary information (snow, precip, flow) for all basins referenced Include tabular forecasts (mp, max, min) and observed data Include any probabilistic information Limit output to water supply or reservoir management supporting guidance Have any narrative information reviewed (follow narrative guidelines) ESG Refer to ESG_Guidelines document issued last spring (Jeff/Greg) Refer to samples products (specified in ESG_Guideline document) Reference online peak flow forecast information when available Limit output to peak flow / flood guidance oriented guidance Have any narrative information reviewed (follow narrative guidelines)

Narrative Guidelines (online, esp, esg): Be consistent with ‘average’ vs. ‘normal’ Follow the defined categories when referring to above, much above, below, etc Round percentages to the nearest 5% Do not editorialize Don’t get wordy or speculate, stick to the facts, focus on what’s driving your forecast. Future weather (tricky) Avoid, particularly in April (short term little effect – too many scenarios) Only if there’s an obvious significant impact (rare in short term) / affects ESP. Avoid ‘what if’ scenarios / leave open possibilities ESG is a more appropriate location for discussion Last month’s weather Probably more pertinent to include if it was way outside the norm. El Nino / La Nina – acknowledge but no real relationships exist other than LC. CPC – Keep with probabilistic nature of the guidance (elevated, enhanced, equal chances, etc.) Have these reviewed – provide forecast / ESP output in a consistent format to reviewer.

ESGUT/ESPUT – Monthly Utah water supply and flood guidance products Great Basin Green River Basin (Lower Green) San Juan Basin (Bluff) Lower Colorado Basin (Virgin) Upper Colorado Basin (Stateline to Cataract) Requires Input From ESGCO/ESPCO – Colorado water supply and flood guidance products Upper Colorado Gunnison / Dolores San Juan Basin Green Basin (Yampa / White) Requires Input From ESGWY/ESPWY – Wyoming water supply and flood guidance products Green (Upper Green) Great Basin (Bear) Requires Input From Product Coordination

Product Archive(All products need to be in a common directory) ESG / ESP products – Exist in both common and personal directories. Email oriented products – Home directories or purged? What other products ?

Data Acquisition / Posting / QC • Precipitation (& Temperature) • pcdiff – estimates monthly precip for SNOTEL sites (PCIRMZZ rawval96 to PPM3MZZ promonly); run before 1st of month • NRCS snotel & WFO coop monthly precip shef messages (PPMRxZZ rawmonly T PPM3xZZ promonly) • prod2prom_ta – cron job calculates level 2 monthly max/min temps (TAI2xxZ prodly to TAM2xxZ promonly) • Feed Monthly QC – populates monthly QC program; reads level 2/3 precip and temp data from promonly • Monthly QC – quality control of precip/temp data to level 4 promonly (PPM4xZZ, TAM4xxZ) • Snow • swest – estimates end of month SWE for SNOTEL (SWIRMZZ rawval96 to SWIRMZZ rawmonly T SWI3MZZ promonly); run before 1st of month • NRCS snotel and snow course 1st of month swe shef messages (SWIRxZZ rawmonly T SWI3xZZ promonly) • promote – creates level 4 data in the PROMONLY table (SWI4xZZ)

Data Acquisition / Posting / QC • Flow (& Storage) • usgs_d2m – creates shef file of monthly flow from usgs web data (QCMRZZZ rawmonly T QCM3ZZZ promonly) • process_bor.sh – creates monthly inflow and end-of-month storage from raw daily USBR-SLC data (QIDRZZZ rawval to QCM1ZZZ promonly; QMDRZZZ rawval to QCMPBZZ promonly; LSIRZZZ rawval96 to LSM2ZZZ promonly) • data sources specific to each basin – may be manually entered or parsed/posted by a program (usually posted as QCMRZZZ rawmonly T QCM3ZZZ) • prod2prom – creates monthly data from daily data; maintains level of daily data • mah2prod; mahout_d2m – creates daily data from hourly simulated data and then monthly volume; used as an estimate when observed data not available (QRI2ZZZ mahrly to QCM2ZZZ; may want to change monthly shef code if posting) • fmah2prod – creates daily values for future model simulated value. This data is useful for determining IFP forecast volumes for the next 2 weeks (not meant to be posted). • promote – Creates level 4 data in the PROMONLY table • qadjust – Create adjusted (unregulated) data (QCMPAZZ promonly)

Programs for Forecast Development • Forecast Development • swindex / swindext – plots historical swe & flow / temperature • nextreg – calculates SWS equation results; where user enters forecasts • espadp – interactive ESP analysis & display program • Forecast Coordination • wy_obs – formats monthly data into an excel file for sharing • Product Development • basum – summarizes data by basin • precsum – summarizes HUC precipitation • tempsum – summarizes HUC temperature • nextpub – generates forecast tables • reom – creates EOM reservoir table • Product Dissemination • copy to /local/q/wan

More Data Information • Database trigger (rawmonly  promonly) • Any data entered in the rawmonly table is automatically moved to the promonly table; if the level is R it gets changed to level 3 otherwise it keeps the rawmonly level. • promote (database procedure) • Run through formsquery languagechoose • Creates level 4 data from the highest level data (3, 2, then 1) that is available for flow, snow, and storage. • Should be run after any flow, snow or storage data is posted and before qadjust. • prod2prom QCM1GZZ/QCM1RZZ • Observed monthly DCP streamflow created from daily streamflow using PROD2PROM. • Only to be used if nothing better exists (i.e. can’t get agency data or estimates from simulated flow). • In order to use this data, need change shef code ‘source’ from G to Z (QCM1ZZZ) before posting to promonly. • mah2prod; mahout_d2m • Output is generally not meant to be routinely stored in the database, but data may be used as an estimate when gages are frozen etc. • To post this data it is suggested that the shef code be changed to QCM1ZZZ and a quality code of ‘E’ be attached to the data value before posting to promonly. • process_bor.sh • Similar routines can be created for other data groups that need to be moved from daily to monthly within our database each month.

Common SHEF Physical Elements Codes (PEDSTEPS) associated with water supply Flow & Storage RAWMONLY Table: QCMRZZZ: Collected monthly streamflow data LSMRZZZ: Collected Reservoir end of month storage PROMONLY Table: QCM3ZZZ: Corresponds to QCMRZZZ, Collected monthly streamflow data in the PROMONLY table QCM1ZZZ: Monthly streamflow created from PROD2PROM – Data received automatically from external agency. QCM1GZZ: Monthly streamflow created from PROD2PROM – DCP QCM4ZZZ: Promoted monthly streamflow data (from level 3, 2, then 1, data as available) QCM4GZZ: Promoted monthly streamflow data – DCP QCMPAZZ: Adjusted monthly streamflow data (likely generated from QADJUST program) QCMPBZZ: Adjusted monthly streamflow data (external agency provided or calculation) QCMP?ZZ: Other monthly adjusted streamflow data (likely generated from QADJUST program – alternate method) LSM3ZZZ: Corresponds to LSMRZZZ, Collected monthly reservoir storage data. LSM4ZZZ: Promoted reservoir end of month storage data – Promoted using PROMOTE program

Common SHEF Physical Elements Codes (PEDSTEPS) associated with water supply Flow & Storage CALMONLY Table: QCM5ZZZ: Historical monthly streamflow data – collected from source agency – highest quality QCM4ZZZ: Historical monthly streamflow data (moved from promonly to calmonly) QCMRZZZ: Historical monthly streamflow data (older data load) LSM5ZZZ: Historical monthly reservoir data – collected from source agency – highest quality LSM4ZZZ: Historical monthly reservoir data (moved from promonly to calmonly) LSMRZZZ: Historical monthly reservoir data (older data load) MAHRLY / FMAHRLY Table: QRI2ZZZ: IFP hourly flow adjusted-observed data. Used in mah2prod program to create SHEF output file of daily flows. QRIPAZZ: IFP adjusted *simulated* hourly flows. Used in mah2prod program to create SHEF output of daily simulated flows. QRIFEZZ: IFP adjusted *forecast* hourly flows. Used in fmah2fprod to create daily flows. QRIFUZZ: IFP adjusted *simulated forecast* hourly flows. Used in fmah2frod to create daily flows. QIIF?ZZ: Same as the previous 4 data types but used for reservoir inflow.

Common SHEF Physical Elements Codes (PEDSTEPS) associated with water supply Precipitation & Snow RAWMONLY Table: PPMRZZZ: Monthly precipitation – collected / provided from external source (i.e. cooperators) PPMRMZZ: Monthly SNOTEL precipitation – provided from the NRCS SWIRMZZ: Monthly SNOTEL SWE data – provided from the NRCS SWIRZZZ: Monthly Snow Course data – Provided from external source PROMONLY Table: PPM3ZZZ: Corresponds to PPMRZZZ in the RAWMONLY table – collected monthly precipitation data PPM4ZZZ: Promoted monthly precipitation data – Promoted from Monthly_QC PPM3MZZ: Corresponds to PPMRMZZ in the RAWMONLY table – collected monthly SNOTEL precipitation PPM4MZZ: Promoted monthly precipitation data – Promoted from Monthly_QC PPS4MZZ: Seasonal total SNOTEL precipitation PPS4ZZZ: Seasonal total precipitation SWI3MZZ: Corresponds to SWIRMZZ – Monthly SNOTEL SWE provided from NRCS SWI4MZZ: Promoted SNOTEL SWE data - Promoted using the PROMOTE program SWI3ZZZ: Corresponds to SWIRZZZ – Monthly Snow Course SWE provided from NRCS SWI4ZZZ: Promoted Snow Course SWE data – Promoted using the PROMOTE program.

Common SHEF Physical Elements Codes (PEDSTEPS) associated with water supply Precipitation & Snow CALMONLY Table: PPM5ZZZ: Historical monthly precipitation – collected from source agency – highest quality PPMRZZZ: Historical monthly precipitation (older downloads) PPM4ZZZ: Historical monthly precipitation (copied from promonly) PPM3ZZZ: Historical monthly precipitation PPM5MZZ: Historical monthly SNOTEL precipitation – collected from source agency – highest quality SWI5MZZ: Monthly precipitation – collected / provided from external source (i.e. cooperators) SWI4MZZ: Monthly SNOTEL precipitation – provided from the NRCS SWIRMZZ: Monthly SNOTEL SWE data – provided from the NRCS SWI5ZZZ: Monthly Snow Course data – Provided from external source SWI4ZZZ: Historical monthly Snow Course data (copied from promonly) SWIRZZZ: Historical monthly Snow Course data (older download) Climate Indexes PROMONLY Table: CIIRZZZ: Climate Index (SOI, MEI) CALMONLY Table: CIIRZZZ: Climate Index (SOI, MEI, NAO, PNA, MOO)

Typical Data Acquisition – Monthly Water Supply Collected / Provided Data (USGS, Reclamation, SL Pub Utilities, etc.) • This is typically monthly streamflow, precipitation, soi, nrcs provided snow data (Level R Data) • Level R data - manually posted to the RAWMONLY table (-> /local/q/rawmonly/in) – “qcmrzzz” • Automatically triggered to PROMONLY level 3 – “qcm3zzz” • Run PROMOTE for Snow, Flow, and Reservoir Storage to create level 4 data – “qcm4zzz” • Run feed_monthly_qc & Monthly_QC to create Level 4 data for precipitation and temperature data – “swi4mzz” Automatically Received Data (Monthly data generated from hourly and daily data) • This is data received through automated methods to our office daily (i.e. dcp, Reclamation, etc.) • Level 1 & 2 data - “qcm2zzz” – is automatically received and posted to the processed database • Hourly data is turned to daily data and stored (PROHRLY to PRODLY) • Run PROD2PROM to create monthly data – It is stored as original level 1 or level 2 data • Run Promote to create level 4 data. RAWMONLY Level R data, that becomes PROMONLY Level 3 Data is deemed to be a higher quality data and will override PROD2PROM generated data.

Water supply procedures (annual & first of month)