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Climate and Hydrology Dataset for use in Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies

Climate and Hydrology Dataset for use in Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies. Prepared by: Reclamation (Levi Brekke and Leslie Stillwater), BPA (Nancy Stephan), and USACE (Randy Wortman and Seshu Vaddey). 9 June 2009, Portland Oregon. Applications.

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Climate and Hydrology Dataset for use in Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies

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  1. Climate and Hydrology Dataset for use in Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies Prepared by: Reclamation (Levi Brekke and Leslie Stillwater), BPA (Nancy Stephan), and USACE (Randy Wortman and Seshu Vaddey) 9 June 2009, Portland Oregon

  2. Applications Alternative climate change data sets for: • 2014/2024 Columbia River Treaty Review • Bi-Op assessments • ESA/NEPA • Reliability Studies • Council’s 6th Power Plan • Flood Risk Management • Rates/Revenues • Infrastructure Studies

  3. RMJOC Motive and Need • Motive • consistent incorporation of climate projection information into Agencies’ longer-term planning studies • Need • adopt common dataset (climate and hydrology) • establish consensus methods for data use • efficiently use limited resources through coordinated development of data and methods

  4. Key Scoping Decisions • Use CIG’s forthcoming data on regional climate and hydrology (CIG’s “HB2860” regional project) • Use two methodologies from CIG • Step-change climate information (Hybrid) • Time-developing climate information (Transient) • Use only a subset of both data sets • Conduct demonstration analysis using both types to draw impressions on which types are more appropriate for various types of Agencies’ longer-term planning

  5. Start with future climate forcings (mulitple scenarios!) Future Global Econ/Tech Scenario (e.g., IPCC 2000) GHG Emissions Scenario (e.g., energy portfolios) Atmospheric GHG Concentrations (fate of emissions) Climate modeled response (lots of models!) … 22 models from 16 centers NCAR CCSM UKMO-HadCM3 GFDL CM2.0 Run1 … Run 4  Different initial conditions! Courtesy: Barsugli

  6. What subsets are appropriate for planning purposes? Which data type is best for each planning study? “Hybrid” or step-change data (“climate change”) 20 Climate Projections sampled changes from 1971-2000 to either… 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099 10 Global Climate Models A1b and B1 emission scenarios X X X = 60 “climate change” hydrologic scenarios, each 70 years in duration, having variability as observed from 1916-2003 “Transient” or time-developing 20 Climate Projections 10 Global Climate Models A1b and B1 emission scenarios X = 20 hydrologic “projections”, continuous from historical to future (1950-2099), having Global Climate Model variability

  7. Deliverables • Data adopted from CIG (RMJOC reviewed, documented) • (#1) Monthly regional climate data (two types) • Step-change in climate (“hybrid”) • Time-developing climate (“transient”) • (#2) Daily weather inputs for hydrologic modeling (both types) • (#3) Daily hydrologic modeling results (both types) • Data developed by RMJOC agencies (extending from both types) • (#4) Streamflows for reservoir operations/regulation modeling • (#5) Seasonal runoff volume forecasts • (#6) Develop Flood Control and Operating Rule Curves • (#7) Demonstration Study by RMJOC agencies’ staff • Inputs associated with both data types (Hybrid, Transient) • Compare results – consider various longer-term planning efforts undertaken by RMJOC agencies and which type is most appropriate

  8. Project Team

  9. TASK 1 - CLIMATE PROJECTIONS SURVEY AND SELECTION • Task 1.1 - Review of Regional Climate Projection Information available from UW CIG • Task 1.2 - Select Subset of UW CIG Regional Climate Projection Information (Deliverable #1) • Task 1.3 - Documentation and Internal Review Costs per Agency • BPA $11K • USACE $12K • Reclamation $15K (lead)

  10. TASK 2 - HYDROLOGIC DATA SELECTION AND VERIFICATION • Task 2.1 – Obtain and Review Hydrologic Model • Task 2.2 – Obtain and Review Daily Weather Inputs (Deliverable #2) • Task 2.3 - Obtain and Review Simulated Water Balance and Streamflow (Deliverable #3) • Task 2.4 - Independently Verify Datasets #1, #2, and #3 • Task 2.5 - Internal Review, Revised Documentation Costs per Agency • BPA $16K • USACE $18K • Reclamation $38K (lead, implementing 2.4)

  11. TASK 3 - OPERATIONS ANALYSES PREPARATION AND DEMONSTRATION… • Task 3.1 – Prepare Adjusted Inflows (Deliverable #4) • Task 3.2 – Prepare Seasonal Runoff Volume Forecasts (Deliverable #5) • Task 3.3 –Storage-Targets for Flood Control, Variable-Energy Content (Deliverable #6) • Task 3.4 – Demonstration Analyses (Deliverable #7) • Task 3.5 – Peer Review, Revisions, Documentation Costs per Agency • BPA $86K • USACE $160K (extra time required in Tasks 3.2 and 3.3) • Reclamation $110K (extra time required in Task 3.2)

  12. Meetings with Collaborators scoped in Tasks 1.1, 1.2, 2.4, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 and 3.5 (opportunity for external input during process)

  13. * *BPA has also already contributed $100,000 toward CIG’s scenario development effort

  14. Work Plan Finalization • Internal Review • Executive’s Meeting – May 21 • Technical and Planning Staff review – May 6-27 • Incorporate Review Comments – June 3 • External Review • Orientation Workshop – June 9 (CIG to participate) • External review period – ~June-July • Incorporate Review Comments – August • Work Plan Implementation (start Oct 1)

  15. External Review:Orientation Workshop • Logistics • BPA, 8:30am-4:30pm, Tuesday June 9 • Goals • Orient interested stakeholders on work plan • Invite input on potential collaboration • Preliminary Agenda • (8:30-9:30) workshop goals, work plan overview • (9:30-3:00) orientation talks by CIG and RMJOC agencies’ staff on specific work plan subjects • (3:00-4:30) open discussion, external review goals

  16. Questions?

  17. Extras:Product Details

  18. Products • Deliverable #1 – Climate Projections and Climate Change Scenarios • Vision: Multiple projections, represent spread of projection information • Attributes: • variables: temperature and precipitation • spatial: ~sub-basin, Columbia-Snake River Basin (CSRB) • temporal: monthly, climate models’ ~20th to 21st centuries • other: Bias-corrected for climate model tendencies, downscaled • Choices: • Large or small set of projections? Which projections? Screening?

  19. Products • Deliverable #2 – Synthetic Weather • Vision: Weather inputs for hydrology modeling consistent with #1 • Attributes: • variables: temperature and precipitation (T and P) • spatial: same as #1 • temporal: daily, period depends on choice below • Choice: • How do we time-disaggregate from monthly to daily?

  20. Products • Deliverable #3 – Gridded Runoff & Snow, Routed Streamflow • Vision: Natural runoff and water balance variables consistent with #1 • Attributes: • modeled variables: natural runoff, snow water equivalent • derived variables: modified runoff (scenario depletions) • two time steps: daily (as modeled), monthly (after aggregation) • two spatial forms: distributed, routed • Choices: • Reflect evolving climate or shift in climate statistics? • Which hydrology model for the CSRB? • E.g., RFC’s SacSMA/Snow17, CIG’s VIC (1/8 or 1/16 degree apps.)

  21. Products • Deliverable #4 – Adjusted Inflows • Vision:Prepare operations or regulation model inflow inputs consistent with Deliverable #3 • Attributes: • Reflect either step-change climate (“hybrid”) time-developing climate (“transient”) • Develop inflows for four models • Reclamation: tributary ModSim applications • BPA: HydSim (dependent on Reclamation modeling) • USACE: ResSim and/or AutoReg

  22. Products • Deliverable #5 – Seasonal Runoff Volume Forecasts • Vision: Reflect changes to water supply forecast due to changes in snowpack quantity and runoff timing • Attributes: • Reflect either step-change climate (“hybrid”) time-developing climate (“transient”) • RMJOC operations models can simulate decisions given imperfect forecasts • Forecast data produced based on forecast models consistent with #1, #3 • Generally, forecast of spring runoff depends on (1) antecedent fall-winter precipitation and (2) snowpack at the time of forecast issue. • Choice: • How do we characterize how forecast error will evolve as climate changes? (FY2009 Reclamation research)

  23. Products • Deliverable #6 – Develop Flood Control and Variable Energy Content curves • Vision: Prepare operating rule curves that reflect the effects of climate change • Attributes: • Reflect either step-change climate (“hybrid”) time-developing climate (“transient”) • Calculation of flood control rule curves • Based on seasonal runoff forecasts developed in Deliverable #5 • Using existing SRDs and default refill • Using existing SRDs and manual regulation • Review and revise SRDs and manual regulation • Calculation of Variable Energy Content Curves • Based on seasonal runoff forecasts developed in Deliverable #5 for January – July period

  24. Products • Deliverable #7 – Demonstration Analyses • Vision: Assess CSRB reservoir operations/regulation using both sets of inputs - those reflecting either step-change climate (“hybrid”) and time-developing climate (“transient”) • Attributes: • Goal #1 – Develop approach to summarize modeling results reflecting both types (more challenging for transient?). • Goal #2 – Develop approach to communicate modeling results reflecting both types. • Goal #3 – Develop impressions on which type seems more appropriate for the various types of longer-term planning conducted by RMJOC agencies

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